OceanStWx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Hands down the most boring 4 month period of weather I recall. Just pure boredom. Left to get excited about a night in the 40's in September A lot of pent up hype to release over the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I think it's just the pattern. It's obviously not a cold one, but those highs start to have a bigger push of cooler and drier air at the low levels, despite higher overall thicknesses. Yeah, I was just noticing/thinking that... There was also some discussion a few days ago about the time in question, as to whether we'd get a first wider spread register of frost/freeze. I don't think that's favored, but I was wondering (based upon what you also said...) if some favored locales might over-achieve and pull a huger disparity between the thicknesses and an extreme llv inversion with a pattern like that. Either way, autumn climatology favors larger diurnal change, with calm wind and periods of static higher pressure allowing for full sun warming and superb turn around radiative cooling at nights. What's kind of interesting, ...though the surface features promote that sort of thing...the governing flow is odd-ball above normal in heights. That's a pretty sprawling ridge anomaly across the 10 day mean there, in all models really. I was also poking around in the teleconnectors and ...heh, I'm wondering if the "autumnal" vibe to the sensible weather we have today can really last. In fact, the D7 GFS has a Bahama/Bermuda Blue flow setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 the canadian barely has a system at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Euro will be more south/suppressed with that system too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Euro will be more south/suppressed with that system too. i'm pretty it's taken weak, funky looking systems into strong highs a few times since the start of warm season only to back off on all of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Models are consistently developing a system in the Gulf next week. The GFS/GGEM/ECWMF all have it and have had it. The ensembles have it too so I would say confidence is higher than average. If that trough early next week misses like the Euro shows it might have an extended stay in the Gulf. Would at least make for something interesting to track although it probably wouldn't have a direct impact on the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Even though a few posters here say we don't need rain and who cares... I think a lot of municipalities and home owners do. Eric Fisher @ericfisher 32m 32 minutes agoNew Jersey, USA With this very dry stretch, streamflow is at or near record low levels for several eastern MA locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Even though a few posters here say we don't need rain and who cares... I think a lot of municipalities and home owners do. Eric Fisher @ericfisher 32m 32 minutes agoNew Jersey, USA With this very dry stretch, streamflow is at or near record low levels for several eastern MA locations. Meh, we're talking in relative terms to these site specific historical streamflows. It's not like there is no water out there, it's just lower than we normally see. Given that New England in general sees a lot of precipitation, this isn't as dire a situation as it would be in a place like West Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Just closed on the new house and went over once recording was confirmed. Lawn is dry! I'm hiring a service and they'll fix it fine... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Even though a few posters here say we don't need rain and who cares... I think a lot of municipalities and home owners do. Eric Fisher @ericfisher 32m 32 minutes agoNew Jersey, USA With this very dry stretch, streamflow is at or near record low levels for several eastern MA locations I don't think too many homeowners are too concerned. Nearby wells are fine: http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/AWLSites.asp?S=414741072134501&ncd= The lowest water level was in 1995 and I remember that year and there were wells going dry that year. This isn't that. It's dry, but not that dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Just closed on the new house and went over once recording was confirmed. Lawn is dry! I'm hiring a service and they'll fix it fine... Pop the cork. Congrats! Party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I don't think too many homeowners are too concerned. Nearby wells are fine: http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/AWLSites.asp?S=414741072134501&ncd= The lowest water level was in 1995 and I remember that year and there were wells going dry that year. This isn't that. It's dry, but not that dry. Locally in Tolland I've heard of quite a few folks having well issues..as most of the town has well water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Locally in Tolland I've heard of quite a few folks having well issues..as most of the town has well water Well, it truly is a magical place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Just closed on the new house and went over once recording was confirmed. Lawn is dry! I'm hiring a service and they'll fix it fine... Pop the cork. Congrats! Party? Yes, winter weenie housewarming party. We can all bring Jerry a shovel, some new gloves, a roof rake, sidealk salt, etc. That house probably has a library room too...get him a new copy of the Kocin Books for the shelf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Well, it truly is a magical place.Stafford has too. Have some clients there. You gotta get out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Stafford has too. Have some clients there. You gotta get out Yeah...I'll have to remember that. Thanks for the advice. lol...I'm probably more connected with my community and neighbors than most people. The overall groundwater availability is fine. A random "tweet" and a couple of people having issues with improperly installed wells does not mean that the overall situation is in peril. It's New England not California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 I don't think too many homeowners are too concerned. Nearby wells are fine: http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/AWLSites.asp?S=414741072134501&ncd= The lowest water level was in 1995 and I remember that year and there were wells going dry that year. This isn't that. It's dry, but not that dry. What about 1988? Wasn't that a worse drought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 29m 29 minutes ago CapeCodWeather.Net retweeted Dan Leonard Warm pattern rolls on? Certainly may... CapeCodWeather.Net added, Dan Leonard @DanLeonard_wxAbout as strong a heat signal as you will ever see 13+ days out in the ECMWF. #torchtober Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Shiver me timbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 What about 1988? Wasn't that a worse drought? Good point but surprisingly the graph on the page shows that 1995 was lower at that particular well: http://groundwaterwatch.usgs.gov/AWLSites.asp?S=414741072134501&ncd= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 CapeCodWeather.Net @capecodweather 29m 29 minutes ago CapeCodWeather.Net retweeted Dan Leonard Warm pattern rolls on? Certainly may... CapeCodWeather.Net added, Going to be a sweet week or two of sunshine and large diurnal temperature swings. This weekend should be phenomenal though in terms of weather for outdoor recreation. Summits 45-55F, valleys 65-75F and full sunshine. EXPECT LARGE DIURNAL SWINGS IN TEMPS FROM COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS AND WARM DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S COLDER VALLEYS TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN. DAILY HIGHS WILL START MAINLY IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR SATURDAY...BUT WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS 85H TEMPS WARM BACK TO 10C. GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS EXPECT 15 TO 18 DEGREES DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE WARMER VALLEYS AND COOLER MOUNTAIN SUMMITS THIS WEEKEND...INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SUMMIT TEMPS MAINLY IN THE M/U 40S TO L/M 50S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Will September finish with a repeat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 What do we think the chances of freezing temperatures at the picnic tables by the end of September? Current lowest temp of the season is 38F, though we are almost 2 weeks late now on the mean date of first 32F or lower temp. Only 4 out of the last 60 years experienced a first freeze in October on Mansfield/MMNV1 Co-Op. The late record I thought was October 2nd, but its actually October 6th. Two autumns took all the way till October 6th to get to 32F or lower at MMNV1...2001 and 2011. Both of the following winters were horrific, lol (2001-2002, 2011-2012). I can't believe there would be any correlation though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 22, 2015 Share Posted September 22, 2015 Will September finish with a repeat? curr.w.anom.gif Already there unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Hands down the most boring 4 month period of weather I recall. Just pure boredom. Left to get excited about a night in the 40's in September I could make that statement about almost any summer. Just closed on the new house and went over once recording was confirmed. Lawn is dry! I'm hiring a service and they'll fix it fine... Congrats Jerry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 23, 2015 Author Share Posted September 23, 2015 Carbon copy of last Met fall to start, warmer Sept but similar pattern. Will we bust into a warm rainy Oct like last year? Seems so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ApacheTrout Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 What do we think the chances of freezing temperatures at the picnic tables by the end of September? Current lowest temp of the season is 38F, though we are almost 2 weeks late now on the mean date of first 32F or lower temp. Only 4 out of the last 60 years experienced a first freeze in October on Mansfield/MMNV1 Co-Op. The late record I thought was October 2nd, but its actually October 6th. Two autumns took all the way till October 6th to get to 32F or lower at MMNV1...2001 and 2011. Both of the following winters were horrific, lol (2001-2002, 2011-2012). I can't believe there would be any correlation though. my own personal marker is the first time ice appears on my pond. In the 11 years I've lived here in Orwell, the latest is November 3. Most years there is some ice, even if it melts quickly, by the last week of October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 What do we think the chances of freezing temperatures at the picnic tables by the end of September? Current lowest temp of the season is 38F, though we are almost 2 weeks late now on the mean date of first 32F or lower temp. Only 4 out of the last 60 years experienced a first freeze in October on Mansfield/MMNV1 Co-Op. The late record I thought was October 2nd, but its actually October 6th. Two autumns took all the way till October 6th to get to 32F or lower at MMNV1...2001 and 2011. Both of the following winters were horrific, lol (2001-2002, 2011-2012). I can't believe there would be any correlation though. outside shot for that 9/30-10/1 high. Euro is flirting with 0C 850s right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 outside shot for that 9/30-10/1 high. Euro is flirting with 0C 850s right now. Yeah looks like any chance will be right at the end of the month. I know you mentioned this the other day, but a sign of the times is how late it takes for fog to burn off these days. Its 9:30am and its just starting to break up a bit...but town is still in fog, wrapping down towards Montpelier and then following the drainage down to the CT River Valley. Photo from the Picnic Tables (should trademark that), looking ESE at the fog. Visible satellite showing what we are looking at, ESE of the marker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 23, 2015 Share Posted September 23, 2015 Deep Summer in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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