weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 A tornado adrenaline junkie chasing in CT...kind of like a drug junkie who's hit rock bottom sniffing coke off a dirty men's room floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 latest mesoanalysis is quite impressive. We should be able to realize near maximum instability...probably not the 3000-3500 that was modeled once b/c the steeper lapse rates are off to the SW but 2000-3000 is possible. helicity quite high...as long as that remains in place and if sfc winds back a bit it's going to be nasty later on. Definitely thinking a strong tornado is in the cards somewhere...especially if we muster up discrete. SPC meso page showing theta-e has climbed over 350 K for a lot of the area. That's pretty good around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Effective helicity between 200 m2s2 and 300 m2s2...that's ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andrewmac Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 What about discrete mens room floors? haha Where is this conversation headed next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 SPC meso page showing theta-e has climbed over 350 K for a lot of the area. That's pretty good around here. Pretty much about as high as you'll see here. Also meso shows 400-500 J/KG in the -10C to -30C level which is pretty freaking solid. Supportive of some pretty large hail if the right updraft strength gets going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Just wanna add... We let a lot of the banter go over the past couple days, but it's go-time now so let's try to keep the posts on-topic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 A tornado adrenaline junkie chasing in CT...kind of like a drug junkie who's hit rock bottom sniffing coke off a dirty men's room floorThat made me titter... Chasing in New England is so rewarding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 On the 8th floor of the Crosspoint Towers in Lowell...great view of anything coming in that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 @JoeJoyceNH1: Not many times you see such a large widespread Lifted Index of -5 or -6 in New England. Very rich for severe storms http://t.co/AvDLLV9Fe2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Pretty much about as high as you'll see here. Also meso shows 400-500 J/KG in the -10C to -30C level which is pretty freaking solid. Supportive of some pretty large hail if the right updraft strength gets going Things seem like they are coming together. The key is to get some clearing in before 11-12 which earlier looked somewhat problematic. The ingredients on paper are there, just needed instability. It may not be the most ideal, but seems like things are progressing slowly to more Favorable conditions. This stuff cleared a bit quicker than I thought back at like 8 am. We'll just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Pretty much about as high as you'll see here. Also meso shows 400-500 J/KG in the -10C to -30C level which is pretty freaking solid. Supportive of some pretty large hail if the right updraft strength gets going We hail? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Last batch of showers about to move thru shortly, Clearing on the backside possibly but may be to late here for anything siggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 Things seem like they are coming together. The key is to get some clearing in before 11-12 which earlier looked somewhat problematic. The ingredients on paper are there, just needed instability. It may not be the most ideal, but seems like things are progressing slowly to more Favorable conditions. This stuff cleared a bit quicker than I thought back at like 8 am. We'll just have to see. yeah I was not very optimistic early on either but thank God there was that EML plume...those can really help to enhance the cloud breaking up process. We hail? This is a really interesting new graphic they added. Pretty cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Satellite look is improving in NY. You have convective roll clouds showing up now, so the atmosphere is starting to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Just wanna add... We let a lot of the banter go over the past couple days, but it's go-time now so let's try to keep the posts on-topic. Obs as well as tech? Clouds are trucking. 78.9/73 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 If it's to happen I'd look for our first TOR somewhere just west of or in the lower HRV and maybe another just west of CTRV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Pretty huge that dewpoints are in the low 70s across SNE...that is often a good way to offset some other imperfections. So often, we try and get severe in SNE with like mid to upper 60s dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 If it's to happen I'd look for our first TOR somewhere just west of or in the lower HRV and maybe another just west of CTRV Twisters from State College to Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 If it's to happen I'd look for our first TOR somewhere just west of or in the lower HRV and maybe another just west of CTRV Getting convection to fire would be a nice start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 They have previously issued TOR watches for far less impressive setups. Not sure why SPC isn't upgrading given current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 This is much more interesting than severe SNE drought talk... First (of the afternoon) severe warnings prob going up around 3:30 or 4 for SNE is my guess. The airmass is def rich enough, but the instability needs to get over the hump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 They have previously issued TOR watches for far less impressive setups. Not sure why SPC isn't upgrading given current trends. It's also up to the local offices as to whether they want it or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 They have previously issued TOR watches for far less impressive setups. Not sure why SPC isn't upgrading given current trends. There is still time to evaluate. No reason to rush it. Wind is still going to be the overall greatest threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 This is much more interesting than severe SNE drought talk... First (of the afternoon) severe warnings prob going up around 3:30 or 4 for SNE is my guess. The airmass is def rich enough, but the instability needs to get over the hump ML lapse rates are still marginal...they aren't putrid, but we are having trouble advecting in the really good stuff. The latest SPC analysis shoved the 7C/km stuff southeast. Still, the LL lapse rates are starting to recover and we have a lot of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 ML lapse rates are still marginal...they aren't putrid, but we are having trouble advecting in the really good stuff. The latest SPC analysis shoved the 7C/km stuff southeast. Still, the LL lapse rates are starting to recover and we have a lot of shear. We can definitely make a go with low level instability and this shear profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 What were MLL rates for 06/01/11? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Note that HRRR has been way off with convection, it was firing storms across SNE an hour ago. Maybe the 4km NAM solution is fairly realistic. Let storms hold off, maximize instability and keep cells discrete. Then we can get a few nice supercells producing severe (not just marginally damaging gusts) across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 What were MLL rates for 06/01/11? They were >7C/km when the show got started...it got started pretty early that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 23, 2015 Author Share Posted June 23, 2015 What were MLL rates for 06/01/11? 7-7.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted June 23, 2015 Share Posted June 23, 2015 Note that HRRR has been way off with convection, it was firing storms across SNE an hour ago. Maybe the 4km NAM solution is fairly realistic. Let storms hold off, maximize instability and keep cells discrete. Then we can get a few nice supercells producing severe (not just marginally damaging gusts) across the area. I noticed that earlier. It was clueless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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