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May 2015 Discussion & Observations


dmillz25

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I really hope you guys are wrong about rain for the weekend. My kid has a rain or shine bike race on Sunday so we will be outside all day.

 

Bluewave is only summarizing what the latest guidance is projecting.  ECMand GFS have been showing a stormier weekend coming up this week.  Whether its an all day widespread washout or more scattered - yet to be seen.   We'll see how things progress this week.

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Bluewave is only summarizing what the latest guidance is projecting.  ECMand GFS have been showing a stormier weekend coming up this week.  Whether its an all day widespread washout or more scattered - yet to be seen.   We'll see how things progress this week.

 

Yeah, I would like to see the Euro hold onto the solution under 72 hrs before knowing how much rain potential the 

convection will carry.

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Per the ECMWF and latest model data, the mid level ridge axis which was anchored over the Lakes/Northeast for most of May, will propagate eastward to a position that places us on the western periphery of the ridge. This should allow for a more humid, convective environment and greater opportunities for short waves to swing through the interior Northeast. As a result, the Euro is projecting about 2-3" of rain over NJ through 240 hours on the latest 12z run. This cannot be taken at face value due to the convective nature to the pattern; however, the ridge orientation is changing from May 1st-23rd, so I think the extremely dry / no rain pattern will be ending for our area. It remains to be seen if we continue on the dry side of normal, but it does appear that we'll at least have much higher chances for meaningful rain in the next 7-10 days (via mostly scattered convection, potentially more widespread at times).

 

The last few runs of the CFS V2 do indicate the increased wetness finally spreading toward the East Coast:

 

CFSv2.NaPrec.20150525.201506.gif

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