Morris Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Line becoming nice in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 Svr watch should be issued pretty soon. Those storms in PA are looking healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The GGEM essentially tries to ram the trough into the persistent Bermuda ridge and the end result is a non-stop moisture feed from the Gulf and Atlantic straight up the East coast. 3-4"+ of rain through day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 227NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1255 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSNJC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039-041-272300-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0227.150527T1655Z-150527T2300Z/NJ. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED AREATLANTIC BERGEN BURLINGTONCAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLANDEASTERN UNION ESSEX GLOUCESTERHUDSON HUNTERDON MERCERMIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRISOCEAN PASSAIC SALEMSOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 227NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1255 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 227 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDTFOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONSNYC001-007-017-019-021-025-027-031-033-035-039-041-043-053-057-065-071-077-079-083-087-091-093-095-105-111-113-115-119-272300-/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0227.150527T1655Z-150527T2300Z/NY. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED AREALBANY BROOME CHENANGOCLINTON COLUMBIA DELAWAREDUTCHESS ESSEX FRANKLINFULTON GREENE HAMILTONHERKIMER MADISON MONTGOMERYONEIDA ORANGE OTSEGOPUTNAM RENSSELAER ROCKLANDSARATOGA SCHENECTADY SCHOHARIESULLIVAN ULSTER WARRENWASHINGTON WESTCHESTER$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 There are some discreet cells forming out ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 What's impressive is that the 12z GEFS mean is 1.50"+ areawide through 120hrs. In fact, the 12z GEFS mean is 4-5" of rain over the next two weeks with < 2" over most of Texas. The shift is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 And the Euro stalls the front as well. Most of the rain will be falling West of the Hudson river the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 And the Euro stalls the front as well. Most of the rain will be falling West of the Hudson river the next few days. Looks like a Westchester Jackpot tomorrow along with CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 What's impressive is that the 12z GEFS mean is 1.50"+ areawide through 120hrs. In fact, the 12z GEFS mean is 4-5" of rain over the next two weeks with < 2" over most of Texas. The shift is coming. This is where model hugging gets you (anyone) trouble. Just like in winter. Reality will most likely be a good deal drier based on the medium term pattern. It's going to rain this isn't Arizona but we need a complete and utter reversal to be talking big rainfall numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 27, 2015 Author Share Posted May 27, 2015 It cleared out considerably here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 We will have some thunderstorms. Big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 This is where model hugging gets you (anyone) trouble. Just like in winter. Reality will most likely be a good deal drier based on the medium term pattern. It's going to rain this isn't Arizona but we need a complete and utter reversal to be talking big rainfall numbers This is a complete pattern shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 12Z Euro continues with widespread convection Sunday and Sunday night across the area. Storms arrive earlier in the day on Sunday now so not looking like a beach day. The Long Island crew does the best this run which would be welcome news if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 12Z Euro continues with widespread convection Sunday and Sunday night across the area. Storms arrive earlier in the day on Sunday now so not looking like a beach day. The Long Island crew does the best this run which would be welcome news if it verifies. Rain on Monday and Tuesday as well 1.75"+ across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 We just had talk about the EPS rebuilds the ridge around day 8.. So this is not a pattern shift by any stretch of the imagination. Its a relaxation in the current pattern that has been in place.. Thru 120 hours there is generally less then 2 inches of rain across the area.. Lets get this down to less then 72 hrs and then we may be able to talk.. Look at today..Model had showed a decent amount of rain with these thunderstorms and look whats happening to them ..they are essentially dying out in the central part of the line... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 We just had talk about the EPS rebuilds the ridge around day 8.. So this is not a pattern shift by any stretch of the imagination. Its a relaxation in the current pattern that has been in place.. Thru 120 hours there is generally less then 2 inches of rain across the area.. Lets get this down to less then 72 hrs and then we may be able to talk.. Look at today..Model had showed a decent amount of rain with these thunderstorms and look whats happening to them ..they are essentially dying out in the central part of the line... Most of the modeling was under 0.75" today and that looks fine West of the Hudson. Models have consistently shown the storms not making it further East than NJ. The EPS and the GEFS are worlds apart. You go with the EPS, I'll go with the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Most of the modeling was under 0.75" today and that looks fine West of the Hudson. Models have consistently shown the storms not making it further East than NJ. The EPS and the GEFS are worlds apart. You go with the EPS, I'll go with the GEFS. EPS has much higher verification #'s than GEFS. You're sleeping with the enemy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Rain on Monday and Tuesday as well 1.75"+ across the area. If I had a dollar for how many times your model outputs never verified over the past 6 weeks..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 If I had a dollar for how many times your model outputs never verified over the past 6 weeks..... That's the nature of convection and dry patterns, however times are a changing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 EPS has much higher verification #'s than GEFS. You're sleeping with the enemy! I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I believe we're getting 5" of rain over the next two weeks, but you can't deny that models are picking up on a pattern reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 I'm not going to sit here and tell you that I believe we're getting 5" of rain over the next two weeks, but you can't deny that models are picking up on a pattern reversal. I'd say maybe on that. Some models have the ridge building right back in, which will give us this pattern again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Rain on Monday and Tuesday as well 1.75"+ across the area. And hopefully that delivers since the Euro doesn't have much rain after early next week through day 10 as the ridge rebuilds and above normal temps return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 i don't trust any organized rainfall forecasts with such weak forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 Upto 91 here hottest day since last September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The 12z EPS mean doesn't rebuild the ridge. At least not through day 12. It shows mostly a zonal flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 The 12z EPS mean doesn't rebuild the ridge. At least not through day 12. It shows mostly a zonal flow. that ain't going to get us much rain this time of year, you'd likely see dry seasonal weather with a few cold frontal passages with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 27, 2015 Share Posted May 27, 2015 that ain't going to get us much rain this time of year, you'd likely see dry seasonal weather with a few cold frontal passages with that. It has an east coast trough until post day 7. I will take my chances between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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