Isotherm Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Per the ECMWF and latest model data, the mid level ridge axis which was anchored over the Lakes/Northeast for most of May, will propagate eastward to a position that places us on the western periphery of the ridge. This should allow for a more humid, convective environment and greater opportunities for short waves to swing through the interior Northeast. As a result, the Euro is projecting about 2-3" of rain over NJ through 240 hours on the latest 12z run. This cannot be taken at face value due to the convective nature to the pattern; however, the ridge orientation is changing from May 1st-23rd, so I think the extremely dry / no rain pattern will be ending for our area. It remains to be seen if we continue on the dry side of normal, but it does appear that we'll at least have much higher chances for meaningful rain in the next 7-10 days (via mostly scattered convection, potentially more widespread at times). The last few runs of the CFS V2 do indicate the increased wetness finally spreading toward the East Coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 good luck with any rains! dry begets dry. Great day here, highs in the low 80's with a breeze. Parade and BBQ today here was perfect. It's definitely a new ridge orientation than the past few weeks, so I think we're done with the bone dry / California-like no rain pattern. Whether we actually transition into an above normal pcpn regime or not remains to be seen, but we should see many more opportunities than we've had over the past few weeks. Convection could be fairly widespread ahead of the Sunday FROPA in particular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Per the ECMWF and latest model data, the mid level ridge axis which was anchored over the Lakes/Northeast for most of May, will propagate eastward to a position that places us on the western periphery of the ridge. This should allow for a more humid, convective environment and greater opportunities for short waves to swing through the interior Northeast. As a result, the Euro is projecting about 2-3" of rain over NJ through 240 hours on the latest 12z run. This cannot be taken at face value due to the convective nature to the pattern; however, the ridge orientation is changing from May 1st-23rd, so I think the extremely dry / no rain pattern will be ending for our area. It remains to be seen if we continue on the dry side of normal, but it does appear that we'll at least have much higher chances for meaningful rain in the next 7-10 days (via mostly scattered convection, potentially more widespread at times). The last few runs of the CFS V2 do indicate the increased wetness finally spreading toward the East Coast: Now that's a sight for sore eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Now that's a sight for sore eyes.i wouldn't cheer the rain that much because I think that devastating rain will only move northeast. Good news cause we need it but not as much as Texas is getting. That's just miserable. I hope end of June and July are not too wet but I'm afraid there'll be some devastating floods even around here if this pattern changes the way the models are starting to depict! You'll finally get your rain yanks but hopefully we don't get it all once and lots of it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 May Dep(thru 5/25) NYC: +5.2 EWR: +4.5 LGA: +3.6 JFK: +3.7 TTN: +4.5 PHL: +5.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 00z GFS has high end rain chances everyday except tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 00z GFS has high end rain chances everyday except tomorrow As an aside from having convective potential, the ridge axis is ideally placed for tropical cyclone impacts given formation. We shall be compensated for this down period for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 The Euro is already starting to show less rain for NYC than the previous runs for later in the weekend. Hopefully, there is enough rain to get May over an inch since NYC is still stuck at +0.32. So the best chance for NYC convection will come in on the last of the month as per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 00z GFS has high end rain chances everyday except tomorrow The GFS has been showing too much convective feedback this warm season after the upgrade this past winter. Not good when the GFS is beating the NAM in the wet bias contest. https://twitter.com/tstmshadow/status/602103077018173441 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 The Euro is already starting to show less rain for NYC than the previous runs for later in the weekend. Hopefully, there is enough rain to get May over an inch since NYC is still stuck at +0.32. So the best chance for NYC convection will come in on the last of the month as per the Euro. The 00z Euro was still 2"+ for most of NJ and that's the nature of convection. You're never going to get identical runs. Should the drier trend continue then perhaps that's something that should be considered. The 00z GGEM was 3"+ for everyone and even closes off an ULL over the TN Valley late this weekend which would be in a prime spot for East coast rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 9AM Roundup (newark going for two) - Rangers trying to stay alive TEB: 73 NYC: 71 EWR: 74 LGA: 73 JFK: 69 ISP: 68 New Brunswick: 73 TTN: 73 PHL: 74 ACY: 74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Have to watch the advance of clouds from OH/WPA later this PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I think it's safe to say that the rain is coming. Not that every threat the next two weeks is going to work out exactly as modeled, but it's clear that the trough will be coming East and the southern jet will be better aligned to deliver the goods up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I think it's safe to say that the rain is coming. Not that every threat the next two weeks is going to work out exactly as modeled, but it's clear that the trough will be coming East and the southern jet will be better aligned to deliver the goods up here. I ain't buying anything until I hear the gutters running with rainwater. My lawn looks like something out of late July at this point. Only .44 here MTD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I ain't buying anything until I hear the gutters running with rainwater. My lawn looks like something out of late July at this point. Only .44 here MTD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 11am EWR: 82 NYC: 79 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I ain't buying anything until I hear the gutters running with rainwater. My lawn looks like something out of late July at this point. Only .44 here MTD. Install sprinklers you cheapskate . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Install sprinklers you cheapskate . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 79/66 here-definitely a more humid feel today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I think the same can be said to you for promising me all that rain the last month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 I think the same can be said to you for promising me all that rain the last month... I haven't promised anything. It was quite clear that with the pattern we had in place that precipitation would be well below normal. As is often the case, the models began picking up on this pattern change a week or so too early. Alas, the pattern shift will being tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 read somewhere that a warm/dry May is often a precursor to a cooler June...any truth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Install sprinklers you cheapskate . This is the kind of sprinkler system that I want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 The 12z GFS stalls the front right over us. Spotty hit or miss convection during the day tomorrow and then a more pronounced area of rain tomorrow night. Again, the globals are going to smooth out QPF and I would expect some areas to pick up a lot more or a lot less than others. Let's get through this week and see where we stand before worrying about the weekend and next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 The bulk of the activity for Thursday on the 12z GFS is over NYC, LI, and coastal NJ, however that will probably change as it continues to jump around each and every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 The wind came up pretty insane yesterday at the beach. From light 10 knots to full on gale in the evenining. Textbook Ambrose jet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 26, 2015 Share Posted May 26, 2015 1PM Roundup: TEB: 85 NYC: 85 EWR: 88 LGA: 84 JFK: 75 ISP: 76 New Brunswick: 87 TTN: 85 PHL: 84 ACY: 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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