bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Models have been horrid with QPF the last 6 weeks. It's always a flip to wetter than never comes. Even yesterday, models showed widespread 1-2 inches for many locales just 48 hours out only to verify with .50 in a couple lucky spots and much less or zero in most of the subforum. Dry begets dry. The Euro has done the best out of the NAM and GFS. There are big problems with the GFS upgrade last winter showing up with excessive convective feedback this warm season. Still haven't heard any information about a potential fix coming yet. So let the buyer beware. https://twitter.com/tstmshadow/status/602103077018173441 Not good when the GFS is beating the NAM in the wet bias contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The Euro has done the best out of the NAM and GFS. There are big problems with the GFS upgrade last winter showing up with excessive convective feedback this warm season. https://twitter.com/tstmshadow/status/602103077018173441 Not good when the GFS is beating the NAM in the wet bias contest. you mean like this? Ridiculously overdone in all likelihood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The Euro has done the best out of the NAM and GFS. There are big problems with the GFS upgrade last winter showing up with excessive convective feedback this warm season. https://twitter.com/tstmshadow/status/602103077018173441 even the euro was too wet for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Not a drop at the shore. Amazing how many lawns look like late July after a dry heat wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 even the euro was too wet for this weekend Yes, but it's the smallest offender out of the NAM and GFS. It too has had to back when under 72 hrs several times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The pattern is changing, you can believe it or you can choose to ignore it. All of the globals have over an inch of rain this weekend, including the 00z ECWMF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The pattern is changing, you can believe it or you can choose to ignore it. All of the globals have over an inch of rain this weekend, including the 00z ECWMF. Anything more than bone dry represents a shift to wetter. But that doesn't mean that you jump on the wettest piece of guidance for any given period before seeing how the first event verifies in a 240 hr QPF prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Anything more than bone dry represents a shift to wetter. But that doesn't mean that you jump on the wettest piece of guidance for any given period before seeing how the first event verifies in a 240 hr QPF prog. I could have posted the 00z GGEM which has 7" of rain over the next ten days but I did not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The pattern is changing, you can believe it or you can choose to ignore it. All of the globals have over an inch of rain this weekend, including the 00z ECWMF. It's had that for weeks though, and has yet to verify. The models are crap lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 I could have posted the 00z GGEM which has 7" of rain over the next ten days but I did not. You have to take one event at a time. Remember the 12z GFS yesterday had a phantom bullseye near the South Shore of NYC/Nassau which never verified. Now how many more of those QPF blobs do you think are being factored into the 10 Day? 12z Wed GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Also, longer term it looks like the ridge builds back in so any rain this weekend is likely an island in a sea of dry and and above normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 It's had that for weeks though, and has yet to verify. The models are crap lately. That's the nature with convection. But if you go back to last week we had 384 hr GFS runs that showed less than inch of rain over the area for the entire run. The trough is being kicked East. The EPS mean basically has a flat ridge and the GEFS mean has a trough. The battle continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 You have to take one event at a time. Remember the 12z GFS yesterday had a phantom bullseye near the South Shore of NYC/Nassau which never verified. Now how many more of those QPF blobs do you think are being factored into the 10 Day? 12z Wed GFS f27.gif Nobody takes bulls eye convective blobs seriously as they are like throwing darts at a board. Picked up 0.28" of rain yesterday, so I will consider that a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 You have to take one event at a time. Remember the 12z GFS yesterday had a phantom bullseye near the South Shore of NYC/Nassau which never verified. Now how many more of those QPF blobs do you think are being factored into the 10 Day? 12z Wed GFS f27.gif Agree , these help skew the 10 day totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 The clouds are much thicker today than they were at this time yesterday. Hopefully these clouds break up soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The HRRR has a pretty decent line of storms today, mainly from the GSP East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Agree , these help skew the 10 day totals Yeah, the upgraded GFS has been placing a phantom QPF bullseye south of Coney Island on several occasions recently. None of the other models have been doing this. Even the NAM got the forecast right yesterday. I can't post the Euro but it was just like the NAM 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The clouds are much thicker today than they were at this time yesterday. Hopefully these clouds break up soon Clouds have broken up here for more sun. Visible show more clearing from the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 Clouds have broken up here for more sun. Visible show more clearing from the NW. Yeah it started happening as soon as I posted this lol. I want as much sun as possible so we could get some storms later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Much like yesterday we will deal with clouds till around noon. Then see how much we can warm and fuel any scattered storms later this PM. Just in time for noon. Lets see how warm it can go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Strong SBCAPE and decent shear values across NJ again. The biggest limiting factor appears to be mid-level lapse rates however a decent storm with CTG lightning and heavy downpours can not be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 What is the point of continually posting qpf amounts that dont verify...you analyze trends not model hug..its getting annoying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 What gives with these diverse current SST's? Buoy 44065 50 Coney Island 60 Sandy Hook 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 28, 2015 Author Share Posted May 28, 2015 We're talking about this in the severe threat thread. 5-28 should be added to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The 12z Euro has 1-2.5" of rain for Sunday-Tuesday time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 Yeah, the upgraded GFS has been placing a phantom QPF bullseye south of Coney Island on several occasions recently. None of the other models have been doing this. Even the NAM got the forecast right yesterday. I can't post the Euro but it was just like the NAM 12z yesterday. f24.gif f27N.gif I've noticed that also...The nam has the opposite bias in the same area with often low qpf for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 The 12z Euro has 1-2.5" of rain for Sunday-Tuesday time frame. It will come down the the development of the weak wave on the stalled out front for Monday into Tuesday. I hope the Euro is correct about the overrunning potential developing since we really need the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 It will come down the the development of the weak wave on the stalled out front for Monday into Tuesday. I hope the Euro is correct about the overrunning potential developing since we really need the rain. GFS has 1.50"+ of rain as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 28, 2015 Share Posted May 28, 2015 GFS has 1.50"+ of rain as well. It will depend on the front stalling out in just the right position and not too far south Monday into Tuesday. There should be an organized overrunning potential where the front stalls out. Hopefully, it's not just south of the area and CNJ/SNJ gets jackpotted. But it will boost confidence if the models still have us in the best zone getting under 48hr from the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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