Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 NAM and now GFS stalling the front much further NW. Looks like southern areas of the subforum could miss a lot of the rain if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 The 12z GFS really dumps here on Sunday. 0.50-1.00" of rain through 06z Monday. Then we get hit pretty hard on Monday but the worst is North of is into C NE. Then on Monday night we get a fire hose type feature as another wave develops near DC and moves northeastward. The GFS has 4-5" of rain for parts of the Albany CWA through hr 84. We're at 1.75"+ and that's before the wave for Monday night. Believe it or not, as dry as we have been, flooding could occur, especially since the reservoirs aren't low by any means thanks to all that snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Pretty fitting and follows past dry spells which were followed by deluges. Is rather see this kind of rail spread out. Still looking warm once to the 4th/5th and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Still a good soaking, even though the heaviest on Sunday is North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 If someone told me last December that we would have the third coldest February on record followed by a May so close to the top I probably wouldn't have believed them. It was impressive how the developing El Nino pattern helped pump the ridge over the area since the beginning of April. I feel like a broken record but that is just the nature of meridional patterns and life inside the 'climate casino'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 The 12z Euro is slowing the front down for Sunday so we'll see 80's instead of the cooler temps that were previously forecast. NYC may come closer to the May 1991 record high. Much of the convection is now focusing north of NYC into Monday. Has bulk of convection Monday night into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 The 12z Euro is slowing the front down for Sunday so we'll see 80's instead of the cooler temps that were previously forecast. NYC may come closer to the May 1991 record high. Much of the convection is now focusing north of NYC into Monday. Has bulk of convection Monday night into Tuesday. any more trending in that direction and we'll miss most of the rain to our NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 another big rain event ready to bite the dust.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 another big rain event ready to bite the dust.... It was one run and everyone is still comfortably 1.50"+ with 2"+ for NW sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 As most of you know I have been following this rain threat very closely for the last five days. The heaviest rains have shifted from over us to the southeast to the northwest to back over us and now back to the northwest. Undoubtedly this will continue to move around as the models struggle with placement of key features. Just noise IMO. Table still set for 1"+ areawide with 3" lollies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 The good news is that Sunday might actually be a decent day...it can rain all it wants Sun night and Mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Via NE forum. Again, we're not in the bullseye, but if this were a snowstorm everyone would think that was a good thing at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 any more trending in that direction and we'll miss most of the rain to our NW Especially if the frontal passage on Tuesday verifies less moist than the 12z run had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 As most of you know I have been following this rain threat very closely for the last five days. The heaviest rains have shifted from over us to the southeast to the northwest to back over us and now back to the northwest. Undoubtedly this will continue to move around as the models struggle with placement of key features. Just noise IMO. Table still set for 1"+ areawide with 3" lollies. need a trend back SE. Another trend or 2 NW and we're not getting much. Already, Sunday is now mainly dry so we've lost a day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 need a trend back SE. Another trend or 2 NW and we're not getting much. Already, Sunday is now mainly dry so we've lost a day I'm sure you have read the thread in the New England forum. A few excellent posts there about how the models tend to be too far North with stratiform rain events during the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Upton's first guess, not a bad soaking, especially for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 I'm sure you have read the thread in the New England forum. A few excellent posts there about how the models tend to be too far North with stratiform rain events during the warm season. good points, however on the other side, that Bermuda high means business. The models could be onto something with the CNE and upstate NY jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Well Upton just really increased rain totals. 2"+ areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Well Upton just really increased rain totals. 2"+ areawide. in that case, plan for .10-.25. The kiss of death! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 12z EPS mean is wet from 18z Sunday until Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 We rain, hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 NAM in yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 NAM in yet? Only out to 60 hours. Sharp cut off so far on Sunday with 1"+ over NNJ and 0.10" East. Either way, it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Granted its the NAM but it says storm cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Every run getting drier and drier ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Not much confidence in this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 The surface low basically tracks over the Mid-Atlantic. I can not see all those heavy rains displaced as far North as what some models would have you believe. This is the warm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 We just need to keep Sunday drier for NYC to have a very impressive near warmest and driest May combo which is a rarity for any month of the year. Not too many +5 or greater months in the warm season with under an inch of rainfall. NYC is currently at the second warmest May and third driest. 67.9....+5.9.....0.40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 We just need to keep Sunday drier for NYC to have a very impressive near warmest and driest May combo which is a rarity for any month of the year. Not too many +5 or greater months in the warm season with under an inch of rainfall. NYC is currently at the second warmest May and third driest. 67.9....+5.9.....0.40 NYC is probably <0.50" on Sunday now, unless this is all just noise and the models correct back southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted May 29, 2015 Share Posted May 29, 2015 Someone is a jinx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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