bluewave Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Looking like another Ambrose Jet day with gusts to 30 mph or higher by mid to late afternoon for spots like JFK. You can see the impact of all the onshore flow this month with JFK at +3.5 and NYC at +6.0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Philly warmest mays monthly mean temps 1991: 70.8 2015: 69.5 (So far) 2004: 69.2 2012: 68.2 2010: 67.5 2011: 67.4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Buffalo's warmest months of May on record (average temperature) Warmest - 1991 - 64.3° 2nd place - 2012 - 63.8° 3rd place - 1944 - 63.4° 4th place - 1998 - 62.8° 5th place - 2015* - 62.3° * as of midnight Friday. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Through today, the average temperature in Washington (as measured at Reagan National Airport) has been 72.75F*, roughly 7 degrees above normal. That is 0.7F above 2004’s value of 72.1F, which is in second place among the warmest Mays as of this date. 1991 ranks third, at 72.0F. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Warmest months of May in Syracuse Year Average temp Rank 1. 1911 64.7 1 2. 2015 (estimated) 64.5 3. 2012 64.3 4. 1944 63.3 5.1998/1975 62.9 6. 2011 62.8 7. 1991 62.7 8. 1962 62.3 9.. 1918 61.8 For Philly most coming in recent years. The summers including May are getting a bit hotter from philly on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 ..this is the only May in the top ten warmest without a 90 degree day in Central Park... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 ..this is the only May in the top ten warmest without a 90 degree day in Central Park... Even Newark only made it to 91 for a monthly high while reaching 93 in 1991. Newark reached 94 in May 2013 with only a +0.6 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 May precip so farNYC: 0.40EWR: 1.11LGA: 0.33JFK: 0.44 ISP: 0.42TTN: 0.62PHL: 1.19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Even Newark made it to only 91 for a monthly high. many days in the 80's this month and some warm minimums so far...Three days with a minimum of 70...last year we had 33 days with a minimum of 70... since 1930 70 degree minimums in KNYC... year total min 70+ consecutive 70+ 1930..........26............8 1931..........34............7 1932..........25............6 1933..........33............6 1934..........26............4 1935..........29..........11 1936..........20............4 1937..........28............6 1938..........34..........12 1939..........44..........13 1940..........24............8 1941..........27............6 1942..........20............4 1943..........30............4 1944..........41..........14 1945..........29............4 1946..........11............3 1947..........30............5 1948..........29............6 1949..........43..........10 1950..........13............5 1951..........23............7 1952..........38..........12 1953..........34..........10 1954..........18............5 1955..........45..........13 1956..........20............5 1957..........31............5 1958..........26............4 1959..........46..........10 1960..........20............5 1961..........42............9 1962............8............2 1963..........14............5 1964..........19............4 1965..........17............4 1966..........40..........11 1967..........17............5 1968..........29............6 1969..........33............6 1970..........37..........10 1971..........45............9 1972..........30..........15 1973..........37..........11 1974..........26............3 1975..........23..........12 1976..........24............4 1977..........37............9 1978..........31..........13 1979..........42..........17 1980..........52..........22 1981..........39............8 1982..........30..........12 1983..........45..........13 1984..........40..........16 1985..........34............6 1986..........31............4 1987..........32............7 1988..........42..........21 1989..........28............5 1990..........32............8 1991..........31............7 1992..........14............4 1993..........35..........10 1994..........35............9 1995..........39..........18 1996..........22............5 1997..........27............8 1998..........39..........11 1999..........45..........13 2000..........22............4 2001..........30............9 2002..........43............9 2003..........33..........15 2004..........28............6 2005..........60..........14 2006..........41..........15 2007..........35............8 2008..........35............8 2009..........18............5 2010..........54..........22 2011..........40...........9 2012..........47..........10 2013..........51..........19 2014..........33............9 2015............3............2 as of 5/30 1876..........46..........14 1902..........16............8 1903..........18............5 1906..........61..........17 1908..........54..........16 1888..........17............6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Great model concences for 1.5"+ with 3" Lollies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 12PM Roundup TEB: 82 NYC: 81 EWR: 82 LGA: 81 JFK: 74 ISP: 77 New Brunswick: 83 TTN: 81 PHL: 83 ACY: 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 I'll honestly be shocked if we get more than an inch from all this. All the heavy rains seemed to be focused over New England more than here. The 12z gfs backed down on amounts compared to 06z. 1.5" spread over two days is snooze worthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 The 12z GGEM just hammers the area over the next 3 days. 2-3" totals with heavy convection and locally a lot more if they verify. Philly all the way to Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Rain-shaming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 12Z Euro continues theme of heaviest rain over NNJ with amounts falling off the further east that you go. The main question is how much rain gets into NYC on Sunday for the May rainfall total. NYC currently as .40 so would need .60 by midnight to make it to an inch for May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 The 12z GGEM just hammers the area over the next 3 days. 2-3" totals with heavy convection and locally a lot more if they verify. Philly all the way to Maine. I like the idea of 1.5 to locally 3 inches of pure water. Maybe start an ops thread for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 12Z Euro continues theme of heaviest rain over NNJ with amounts falling off the further east that you go. The main question is how much rain gets into NYC on Sunday for the May rainfall total. NYC currently as .40 so would need .60 by midnight to make it to an inch for May. It's a nice soaker too, 2-3" of rain and it even flirts with making Tuesday a total washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 It's a nice soaker too, 2-3" of rain and it even flirts with making Tuesday a total washout. The huge ridge is finally flattening out enough for a piece of that STJ moisture to ride NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted May 30, 2015 Author Share Posted May 30, 2015 I like the idea of 1.5 to locally 3 inches of pure water. Maybe start an ops thread for the event. There is one already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Towering cumulus cloud to my southeast. A few sprinkles showing up on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Quite an impressive anvil. It's going to miss me to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Up to 87 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Even the RGEM which had been really far North and dry is starting to come around with 1"+ in the bucket already in a lot of spots by Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 I don't know why that guy posts on a weather enthusiast site...we all have our likes and dislikes but he seems to just have no interest in anything weather related. 95/75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 He never used to be like this, and then last Winter he started under inflating his snowfall totals just to downplay winter events. Who does that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 85 here today after 80 yesterday...down to 79 now with a se wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 .HYDROLOGY...BETWEEN 1/2 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OF RAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF NYCMETRO...NE NJ...LOWER HUD VALLEY...AND SOUTHERN CT SUNDAY AFTERNOONTHROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHING.LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANYTRAINING CONVECTION...WHICH WOULD POSE A FLASH FLOODING THREAT. THEPROBABILITY IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION IS LOW. OF NOTE...SBU WRF ISINDICATING POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY 3 TO 5 INCHES DURING THIS 24 HRPERIOD.RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER DOWN TO 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS EASTERNLI AND SE CT...WITH MORE STABLE MARINE AIRMASS LIMITING CONVECTION.AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGHTUESDAY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANYTHUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE/SMALL STREAMFLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Mt Holly NWS..someone looks to get crushed with rain TOTAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLYHIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY WITHIN THE GEFS, NAEFS ANDOPERATIONAL MODELS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS DUETO VARIABILITY IN THE FEATURES. A GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIMEYIELDS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PA, NORTHERNNJ AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THISPLACEMENT. QPF GRIDS ARE MORE GENERALIZED TO ACCOUNT FOR THEUNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECASTED A LITTLE COOLERTHAN SOME OF THE STATISTICAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NUMBERS DUE TOTHE RAIN CHANCES AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 Mt Holly NWS..someone looks to get crushed with rain TOTAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THERE IS SOME VARIABILITY WITHIN THE GEFS, NAEFS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGHEST TOTALS DUE TO VARIABILITY IN THE FEATURES. A GENERAL CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME YIELDS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS FAR EASTERN PA, NORTHERN NJ AND THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PLACEMENT. QPF GRIDS ARE MORE GENERALIZED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECASTED A LITTLE COOLER THAN SOME OF THE STATISTICAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NUMBERS DUE TO THE RAIN CHANCES AS WELL. The NAM, GGEM and to an extent the GFS and the Euro all train convection. Wouldn't at all shock me to see 4-5" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted May 30, 2015 Share Posted May 30, 2015 The NAM, GGEM and to an extent the GFS and the Euro all train convection. Wouldn't at all shock me to see 4-5" totals. Hopefully it is over my area. We have not seen more than a 1/4 inch of rain the past 40 days. Just cleaned my weather station and put up a new rain guage. It's on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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