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Spring Banter - Pushing up Tulips


Baroclinic Zone

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Gotta wonder if we are starting to breach some sort of metaphysical boundary at which this has protracted effects on our local climo.

We are are in uncharted territory here.

Granted, ssts are acutely malleable in nature...I get that, but at what point does this start to have a bit of a moderating effect on a the heart of summer, and subsequently the lead into to another potentially blockbuster winter.

Interesting.

I've read numerous things stating that the record snow was helped by abnormally high SSTs off the New England coast in January and the first half of Feb...so wouldn't you want to get those as high as possible prior to next winter to give that powder keg some "pop"?
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I've read numerous things stating that the record snow was helped by abnormally high SSTs off the New England coast in January and the first half of Feb...so wouldn't you want to get those as high as possible prior to next winter to give that powder keg some "pop"?

A warmer eddy did move into the gulf of Maine earlier in January and recently Oceanstwx did note warmer waters like 50m down. So maybe they level out later in Spring? Also I don't quite buy into those explanations that it was he reason for heavy snow....perhaps it helped out a fraction of some sort.

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looks icy

there were a spot ice here and there but I don't do glades so no problem with that. Lots of side powder yesterday from the drifting. Should soften up this afternoon and tomorrow. But it's probably exactly how I like it, fast and hard and the place is empty. There currently are three cars in the condo lot and one is mine
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I've read numerous things stating that the record snow was helped by abnormally high SSTs off the New England coast in January and the first half of Feb...so wouldn't you want to get those as high as possible prior to next winter to give that powder keg some "pop"?

You are speaking more to enhanced baroclinicity....I was referring to colder anomalies on the cp, and perhaps the presence of a larger inhibitor to precip type issues born of BL issues.

 

I see what you mean, though.

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A warmer eddy did move into the gulf of Maine earlier in January and recently Oceanstwx did note warmer waters like 50m down. So maybe they level out later in Spring? Also I don't quite buy into those explanations that it was he reason for heavy snow....perhaps it helped out a fraction of some sort.

I mean it's "everywhere" as a strong reason...

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/regionals/north/2015/03/07/the-argument/JEBJ4IKATgm13tMuVxrI5N/story.html#

"The conditions that have generated this winter’s historic snowfall are consistent with global warming: record high sea-surface temperatures off the coast have provided moisture and energy to fuel these storms."

http://wildcardweather.com/2015/02/11/above-average-ocean-temperatures-contributing-to-historic-boston-snowfall/

"Clearly the position of the jet stream is a major reason for the arrival of storm after storm to New England. But it doesn’t tell the whole story. An important reason for all of the snowfall is the abnormally warm sea surface temperatures off southern New England’s coast.

So how warm are these ocean waters? Almost unbelievably so.

“Sea surface temperatures off the coast of New England right now are at record levels, 11.5C (21F) warmer than normal in some locations,” says Penn State climate researcher Michael Mann. “There is [a] direct relationship between the surface warmth of the ocean and the amount of moisture in the air. What that means is that this storm will be feeding off these very warm seas, producing very large amounts of snow as spiraling winds of the storm squeeze that moisture out of the air, cool, it, and deposit it as snow inland.”

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A warmer eddy did move into the gulf of Maine earlier in January and recently Oceanstwx did note warmer waters like 50m down. So maybe they level out later in Spring? Also I don't quite buy into those explanations that it was he reason for heavy snow....perhaps it helped out a fraction of some sort.

Agreed. It was probably way down on the list of contributions to the heavy snow in January and February. Might have helped deepen some storms a little bit more but it didn't cause that pattern.

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You are speaking more to enhanced baroclinicity....I was referring to colder anomalies on the cp, and perhaps the presence of a larger inhibitor to precip type issues born of BL issues.

I see what you mean, though.

Ahhh I gotcha. Yeah I was thinking for creating big storms, but yeah you also probably want to keep it cold as to not have mixed events.

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Agreed. It was probably way down on the list of contributions to the heavy snow in January and February. Might have helped deepen some storms a little bit more but it didn't cause that pattern.

Google it. There are like hundreds of stories about how the record warm SST helped produce the big snows.

You really don't think it played much role? I'm just curious because that's all I've been reading. The same pattern would've produced big snow, but the record warmth of the adjacent ocean had to help pump moisture.

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Agreed. It was probably way down on the list of contributions to the heavy snow in January and February. Might have helped deepen some storms a little bit more but it didn't cause that pattern.

That was my inclination.

 

The monster EPO/PNA couplet is what caused the n stream to keep digging.

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Google it. There are like hundreds of stories about how the record warm SST helped produce the big snows.

You really don't think it played much role? I'm just curious because that's all I've been reading. The same pattern would've produced big snow, but the record warmth of the adjacent ocean had to help pump moisture.

They are all the same story pretty much. Same quotes from the same people.

I don't think it played a large role. We hear this all the time when SSTs are high and some sort of extreme happens. It probably contributed on a minor scale. Perhaps BOS would have gotten 82" in 3 weeks instead of 90" if the SSTs had been normal.

But the primary driver was the longwave pattern and the embedded shortwaves within that pattern. We would have gotten destroyed either way.

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there were a spot ice here and there but I don't do glades so no problem with that. Lots of side powder yesterday from the drifting. Should soften up this afternoon and tomorrow. But it's probably exactly how I like it, fast and hard and the place is empty. There currently are three cars in the condo lot and one is mine

Well I suppose not having anyone there makes up for it, its been a touch march up north for sure.  I think its usually their best month up there too.  Lots of snow and moderate temps...not this year or last. 

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Gotta wonder if we are starting to breach some sort of metaphysical boundary at which this has protracted effects on our local climo.

We are are in uncharted territory here.

Granted, ssts are acutely malleable in nature...I get that, but at what point does this start to have a bit of a moderating effect on a the heart of summer, and subsequently the lead into to another potentially blockbuster winter.

Interesting.

 

In general the deep water of the Gulf of Maine is near to above normal below the top layer of water. We've been running on the high side of heat content in the water for a while, and only recently did we start to see the surface water dip below normal (thanks to the bitter cold the last few months).

 

I certainly think we could see some local effect early on, like a stiffer sea breeze than usual, but otherwise the near surface water should rebound pretty quickly (relatively speaking).

 

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I mean it's "everywhere" as a strong reason...

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/regionals/north/2015/03/07/the-argument/JEBJ4IKATgm13tMuVxrI5N/story.html#

"The conditions that have generated this winter’s historic snowfall are consistent with global warming: record high sea-surface temperatures off the coast have provided moisture and energy to fuel these storms."

http://wildcardweather.com/2015/02/11/above-average-ocean-temperatures-contributing-to-historic-boston-snowfall/

"Clearly the position of the jet stream is a major reason for the arrival of storm after storm to New England. But it doesn’t tell the whole story. An important reason for all of the snowfall is the abnormally warm sea surface temperatures off southern New England’s coast.

So how warm are these ocean waters? Almost unbelievably so.

“Sea surface temperatures off the coast of New England right now are at record levels, 11.5C (21F) warmer than normal in some locations,” says Penn State climate researcher Michael Mann. “There is [a] direct relationship between the surface warmth of the ocean and the amount of moisture in the air. What that means is that this storm will be feeding off these very warm seas, producing very large amounts of snow as spiraling winds of the storm squeeze that moisture out of the air, cool, it, and deposit it as snow inland.”

In that case, bring on global warming if it means more blizz's and winter storm warnings for us

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In that case, bring on global warming if it means more blizz's and winter storm warnings for us

I actually think that it does entail larger winter storms for us.....keep roasting the pole and disturb that PV.

As PV alluded to, more room for enhanced baroclinicity, as well.

 

I think even Will would agree that looking back over the 20+ years, we are reaching the point at which you have to start to entertain the notion of climate change versus just a good stretch of larger events.

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Agreed. It was probably way down on the list of contributions to the heavy snow in January and February. Might have helped deepen some storms a little bit more but it didn't cause that pattern.

 

I think when the speak about anomalously high SSTs "off the New England coast" they are really talking about the Gulf Stream hundreds of miles off the coast.

 

I would posit that the SSTs are more of an indirect player in the game, because that baroclinicity would help storms to deepen more which would serve to increase moisture transport. Warmer than normal SSTs alone don't mean that extra moisture is going to go anywhere.

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About -6 this morning, with a solid 25" awaiting Thursday's attack. Last year same date I had -15 (and -17 on the 25th), but March 2014 set records almost to the level (compared to climo) of last month.

 

12° here with 11".  I'm actually averaging colder than last March which was my coldest March.  Pretty nice to have back to back records like that (going back 30 years).

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I think when the speak about anomalously high SSTs "off the New England coast" they are really talking about the Gulf Stream hundreds of miles off the coast.

 

I would posit that the SSTs are more of an indirect player in the game, because that baroclinicity would help storms to deepen more which would serve to increase moisture transport. Warmer than normal SSTs alone don't mean that extra moisture is going to go anywhere.

 

 

Yeah you still need the upper air pattern...and then within that upper air pattern you need the specific shortwave spacing and location to be favorable...without any of that, the SSTs could be roasting and we'd still not get these storms. Maybe more ocean effect streamers for the Flemish Cap.

 

Once you actually get the favorable upper pattern, then the warmer SSTs can help deepen a storm more rapidly and it could make perhaps a 10" storm into a 12-14" storm with the extra PWAT. Hard to quantify it exactly...but once you peel back all the onion layers, it's not a primary variable to me in the snow blitz we had IMHO.

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12° here with 11".  I'm actually averaging colder than last March which was my coldest March.  Pretty nice to have back to back records like that (going back 30 years).

 

Last year was Farmington's coldest March in 122 years of record.  I'm running about 2.8F milder than March '14 thru 3/23, and will probably be 4F milder thru the 25th, as 24/25 last year had temps -28 and -26 compared to my avg.  This March should easily be my 2nd coldest of 17, but won't crack Farmington's coldest 10.

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Yeah you still need the upper air pattern...and then within that upper air pattern you need the specific shortwave spacing and location to be favorable...without any of that, the SSTs could be roasting and we'd still not get these storms. Maybe more ocean effect streamers for the Flemish Cap.

 

Once you actually get the favorable upper pattern, then the warmer SSTs can help deepen a storm more rapidly and it could make perhaps a 10" storm into a 12-14" storm with the extra PWAT. Hard to quantify it exactly...but once you peel back all the onion layers, it's not a primary variable to me in the snow blitz we had IMHO.

 

It's nearly impossible for it to the primary reason. I mean the forcing and resulting moisture transport would vastly overwhelm any signal from warmer than normal SSTs.

 

At the Northeast Storms Conference one of our mets did a talk on how the coastal front contributed to the flash flooding in Portland the same day as the ISP heavy rainfall. Basically the LLJ lifting over the coastal front essentially doubled the precip output of the overall system (which would have been a general heavy rain anyway). Warmer than normal SSTs evaporating moisture into the air couldn't come close to doubling the precip output. It's a fractional input to the larger system.

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It's kind of the same as with tropical cyclones. We don't talk about warmer than normal SSTs leading to increased rainfall amounts in TCs. We talk about warmer than normal SSTs allowing TCs to deepen quicker and stronger.

That's probably the best way to look at it.

And most of what I'm reading, I think they are talking about you need a storm and pattern in the first place, but the increased thermal gradient really helps it go to town.

 

It is interesting that in February, just off the New England and northeast coast were some of the highest anomalies in the world for SST.

 

gfs-025deg_world-ced_sst_anom.png

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12° here with 11".  I'm actually averaging colder than last March which was my coldest March.  Pretty nice to have back to back records like that (going back 30 years).

 

 

Last year was Farmington's coldest March in 122 years of record.  I'm running about 2.8F milder than March '14 thru 3/23, and will probably be 4F milder thru the 25th, as 24/25 last year had temps -28 and -26 compared to my avg.  This March should easily be my 2nd coldest of 17, but won't crack Farmington's coldest 10.

So far in March, KMPV is -6.9° with a low temp reading of -16° on the 6th.  However, this is balmy compared to last March, which finished -10.9° and also had a low of -16°.  Last March had 12 lows below 0° and this March has only had 4 so far.

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Meanwhile in Lake Tahoe...these are from Squaw Valley:

attachicon.gifimage.jpg

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That's incredible...I was there exactly 16 years ago almost to the day and there was something like 27 feet OTG...granted that was 1999 which was a banner year, but even a normal "crappy" year they should have at least 100 inches of base.

 

The only other year that can probably come close to that is 1976-1977....that's ridiculous for them.

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