OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 The most amazing part about that event is we were up late at night waitjng for the NAM/GFS like a winter event more than 36 hours out. Rarely up here do we ever really get obsessed with soundings more than 24h out...but that one had "the look" so to speak even a couple days out. Totally felt like the lead in to a big day at DVN. Picking apart 06z guidance for changes in the potential outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 I like that everybody is looking for failure modes in that thread early on but can't really find them. Ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 I like that everybody is looking for failure modes in that thread early on but can't really find them. Ha. One of the killers is that morning debris junk that seems to happen more often than not. Once the early morning severe cleared by like 9am, it was SKC to Michigan. Game on at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Even the first two pages are a good read. Two things I noticed: One the love for NW flow events. Ryan nailed it, the can often be sneaky but can maximize shear even when winds at the surface have a decent westerly component. And two, the anecdotal talk about CAPE over shear in New England. The talk was pretty unanimous about that. But it makes sense because we almost always have at least marginal shear in place being so far north. More often than not we lack the instability, so if we get the CAPE we get the severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Full mode right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Incredible thread, thanks Steve!!. brings back a ton of memories!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winging_it Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 We all melt. Just not completely. I'm surprised there's been no discussion yet about a flood threat. I see potential for about 1" of rainfall on average across inland SNE/CNE on Thursday where there is roughly 4" SWE. Assuming we lose half of that in the torch-fest, that's 3" of water released from an already-ripe snow pack. Fortunately, FFG numbers are all above 3" per 6 hours, so maybe we'll dodge the bullet. But something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Even the first two pages are a good read. Two things I noticed: One the love for NW flow events. Ryan nailed it, the can often be sneaky but can maximize shear even when winds at the surface have a decent westerly component. And two, the anecdotal talk about CAPE over shear in New England. The talk was pretty unanimous about that. But it makes sense because we almost always have at least marginal shear in place being so far north. More often than not we lack the instability, so if we get the CAPE we get the severe. Big CAPE equals big fun. Good CAPE can do a lot of strange things with a downdraft, even if shear lacks. I know you know that, just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 That was such a crazy day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Big CAPE equals big fun. Good CAPE can do a lot of strange things with a downdraft, even if shear lacks. I know you know that, just saying. Heck your area can even see decent severe mid summer when the sea breeze convergence is enough to pop the cap. No shear, just pulse up to quarters and gust out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 That was such a crazy day How many hot dogs would you say you served that day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Heck your area can even see decent severe mid summer when the sea breeze convergence is enough to pop the cap. No shear, just pulse up to quarters and gust out. Yeah I've seen that a few times when I was down in Brockton. Been a while since I can remember a good seabreeze setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 How many hot dogs would you say you served that day? I should have poisoned them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 It probably got bumped at some point way after the fact. One reason why locking the threads makes it really nice for archiving. Yeah good call...definitely a pet peeve of mine when I go looking for an old event thread, like say a winter storm thread, only to eventually track it down through the Search function and find it was bumped on some random August day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Ekster has some pretty good ominous posts in that thread too. Probably done while nude tracking that EML across the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 yeah I had to go to the 2012 southern New England weather conference just to recap all those events from 2011, it was awesome and Sandy was breathing down our necks right during the conference you could tell half the people in there were checking their phones and tablets for the latest model runs. Just an incredibly epic stretch of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Ekster has some pretty good ominous posts in that thread too. Probably done while nude tracking that EML across the Great Lakes. His paper on it is awesome!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 If it weren't for all the terrain I could totally believe this was a meso ripping through eastern NE or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 26/2 full sun in late March. Fairly impressive cold! Low this morning was 11F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 If it weren't for all the terrain I could totally believe this was a meso ripping through eastern NE or something. PHOTO_GorhamNH1.jpg What town was that? Monson? Awesome picture! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 26/2 full sun in late March. Fairly impressive cold! Low this morning was 11F 9F at the office right now, middle of the day in late March. Down in town its at least gotten into the mid-teens. Another sub-zero day for the picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 What town was that? Monson? Awesome picture! Gorham, NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Gorham, NH Oh' ok, thought maybe it was from the Springfield tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 9F at the office right now, middle of the day in late March. Down in town its at least gotten into the mid-teens. Another sub-zero day for the picnic tables. Spring skiing... w/ mid-winter temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Oh' ok, thought maybe it was from the Springfield tornado. Same day, earlier in the event when everyone was focused a little farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Thinking back on that event has me so excited for summer!!!!! I hope we get another setup like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Oh god....seeing wiz around, along with the other faux severe threat mongering winter vultures, has me with the sports forum at the ready. Almost that time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Oh god....seeing wiz around, along with the other faux severe threat mongering winter vultures, has me with the sports forum at the ready. Almost that time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 23, 2015 Author Share Posted March 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2015 Share Posted March 23, 2015 Oh god....seeing wiz around, along with the other faux severe threat mongering winter vultures, has me with the sports forum at the ready. Almost that time of year Just grab the remaining Sox roster in the draft and be done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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