superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Does RAH have one of those snowfall grid maps? I've seen them posted in other subforums before. BTW, here is Matthew East's jackpot zone prediction (at the moment): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherExperiment Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm still in the 4-8 on the grid looking at GSP latest map seems to be a little less. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png Holy crap! What's the NWS seeing in Union County that others don't see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WxSouth Page Liked · 7 mins · Edited · My updated Snow Forecast Totals...Tree toppling stuff near Raleigh and Southeast Virginia I'm afraid. I generally went up about everywhere. The heaviest looks like near Raleigh, eastern Piedmont into Southeast Virginia, where over a Foot Possible. Stay safe and enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP has some 5-6" per hour rates!!! If that's the case, I'm staying up all night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not bad. Robert had 2-4" for me last night, and now has 6-10" with localized areas of 15". Oy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Strong, I'm at 3-7 from GSP. Been there since last night. Too low for you, it'll change. JMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Has anyone been keeping track of the NAM and RAP verification regarding snowfall amounts upstream of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The amount of sleet falling in my yard right now was not forecast or even warned about on most modeling. 4 degree drop in 30 mins. Kind of interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJnVa Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WxSouth Page Liked · 7 mins · Edited · My updated Snow Forecast Totals...Tree toppling stuff near Raleigh and Southeast Virginia I'm afraid. I generally went up about everywhere. The heaviest looks like near Raleigh, eastern Piedmont into Southeast Virginia, where over a Foot Possible. Stay safe and enjoy the storm. I'm confused because Wakefield has now lowered their call for SE Va--I'm in Chesapeake and it's now saying 3-5" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE TRACK OFTHE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM AND IN FACT THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSISSHOWS THE SURFACE CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE FORECAST POSITION.THIS CONTINUED TREND RESULTS IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER ANDHEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.NWP GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAIN FEATURESRELEVANT TO THIS FORECAST HOWEVER...SUCH A HIGH AMPLITUDE EVENT CANBE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY THE MOST SUBLE VARIABLES. SO WHILECONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO SEVERALFACTORS STILL MAKE US UNEASY REGARDING OVERALL ACCUMULATION TOTALS.WITH THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED SOURCE OF COLD AIR AND ANTECDENTTEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S...THEPRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN IN MOST LOCATIONS...EVEN NEAR THEVA BORDER. BUT GIVEN IMPRESSIVE PRECIPITATION RATES...DIABATICCOOLING FROM MELTING SHOULD COOL SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO AROUNDFREEZING AND ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ANDBEGIN ACCUMULATING. THIS SCENARIO INHERENTLY CONTAINS SOME RISK FORA FORECAST BUST. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY RATES AND SHORT DURATION OFEVENT MEAN THAT EVERY HOUR COUNTS AND THAT A SLIGHT DELAY IN THECOLD AIR OR A MIXTURE WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON STORMTOTALS.WITH A FEW OF THE MAJOR CAVEATS NOTED...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING INA MAJOR WINTER STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT WET SNOW OF 6 INCHES OR MORELIKELY TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NC INCLUDING THE RALEIGH ANDGREENSBORO METRO AREAS. THE GREATEST SNOW TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO FALLIN THE REGION FROM RALEIGH NORTHEAST TO THE ROANOKE RAPIDS AREASWHERE LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. VERYIMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOURWILL ALLOW SNOW TOTOALS TO EXPLODE AFTER MIDNIGHT.THE FORECAST IS ALSO DIFFICULT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTALPLAIN...SOUTHERN SANDHILLS AND EVEN NEAR THE SC BORDER WHERE A WARMNOSE IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO CHANGE THE SNOW TO A MIXTURE OFSNOW...SLEET AN FREEZING RAIN AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOUTHOF CLINTON...FAYETTEVILLE AND RAEFORD...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WONTFALL BELOW FREEZING AND ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL FALL IN A SHORTWINDOW DURING THE LATE EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH JUST ASLOPPY WET SNOW OR RAIN EXPECTED AFTER 200 AM OR.DRY SLOTTING WILL END THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AFTER 3 TO 5 AM WITH THE MAIN AREA OFPRECIPITATION CLOSER TO THE VA BORDER ENDING FROM WEST TO EASTBETWEEN 5 AND 7AM. ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL END BYOR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES AT THAT POINT WILLHAVE REACHED THEIR COLDEST AND HAVE FALLEN TO THE 28 TO 32 RANGE.SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE DRIVEN BY PERSISTENTSHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ORMIST BY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB TO THE 33 TO 36RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP and HRRR still showing foot totals around here. They have not wavered at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxduncan Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Too low for you, it'll change. JMO I hope so looks like I-40 Between Hickory and Morganton get shafted with way lower totals(3-7)with 6-8 just to our south then 8-10 the more south/east you go. At least according to GSP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I wonder if Athens is snowing...they are under an incredibly heavy band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zorian Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If you are in the GSP area and totals go up please post. Im still at 4-8" here in Rutherford County.. See the GSP snowfall map above. I'm in that "tongue" SE of Greenville in NW Laurens County off the 418, north of 385, 10 miles south of Spartanburg County. Mine went from 3-7" to 6-10" this afternoon. Convection playing a part? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Garrett Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Chris Justus has increased our snow totals to 5-10 inches for Greenville Spartanburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Blacksburg in my opinion is too low on there forecasted amounts especially for the nc zones they are going to bust badly. I feel like they always do this and then screw themselves over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WYFF just said thunder snow. Oh snap. It's on like Donkey Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 4 km NAM is adjusting NW, as well (not that that is a surprise). The surface low and heaviest precip are a good 50 miles west of 12z. 999 mb LP west of Waycross at hr 12. 998 mb LP just south of Emerald Isle at hwI'm hoping that low tracks to the west of us. I would love to see the temperature shoot up to near 70 here and we get nailed with a squall line later like the 4K NAM is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The 18z NAM looks like an I-85 crusher from GSP to RIC. That's got to be a sleet-fest down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Blacksburg in my opinion is too low on there forecasted amounts especially for the nc zones they are going to bust badly. I feel like they always do this and then screw themselves over. Glad I'm not the only one who noticed this. I feel very confident that I'm going to get more than 3-5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 One thing Chris Justus said he is accounting for is the sharp southern gradient of the Mountains in Transylvania and Henderson Counties in NC, and how the upslope will intensify the snow in those areas. I wonder on average, how much that can intensify the moisture for those areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If you want to enjoy watching this unfold in NC it will take an all nighter. Exactly what I plan to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Glad I'm not the only one who noticed this. I feel very confident that I'm going to get more than 3-5 inches.Dude seriously, the nam and the almighty euro to everyone has you especially being creamed and it push the 6 inch totals up here on the 12z euro, the 18z nam just went bonkers and the rap and to an extent the hrrr has it decent. Sometimes they make me scratch my head. 3-5 is borderline dangerous to call for an area like you. Way too conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If you want to enjoy watching this unfold in NC it will take an all nighter. Exactly what I plan to do. Same! I was able to sleep in this morning because it was Wednesday, so I'm fully ready to stay up all night and crash after it ends around dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RAP and HRRR still showing foot totals around here. They have not wavered at all. sref mean is insane too, and they were the warmest 24 hrs ago. we are in the jackpot zone for sure. if we go to sleet at the end i dont care, most of the precip will have fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Huge snow flakes here!!!! For future reference, use the observation thread located here for what's currentlly happening in your back yard. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45854-february-25th-26th-winter-storm-obs/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Dude seriously, the nam and the almighty euro to everyone has you especially being creamed and it push the 6 inch totals up here on the 12z euro, the 18z nam just went bonkers and the rap and to an extent the hrrr has it decent. Sometimes they make me scratch my head. 3-5 is borderline dangerous to call for an area like you. Way too conservative. Yeah I have no idea what they are looking at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Same! I was able to sleep in this morning because it was Wednesday, so I'm fully ready to stay up all night and crash after it ends around dawn. Ditto here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If you want to enjoy watching this unfold in NC it will take an all nighter. Exactly what I plan to do. i've got my keurig ready, although if the 2"/hr rates verify i wont need it. incredible what is unfolding for the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southernskimmer Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 If you want to enjoy watching this unfold in NC it will take an all nighter. Exactly what I plan to do. Yep naptime is over. Heading to High Point to my parents house shortly to set up shop. You will see me in the OBS thread until this thing ends. Going to be awesome. Cant wait to put the Tahoe in 4 wheel drive and drive around to look at High Point first thing tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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