Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 ? It was a great run for the cities for the snow blitz- better than the NAM. I'm just messing around. Extrapolated rainstorm. Nam 4k spared us the demise. Whatever happens is fine with me as long as I jackpot. And if I jackpot, you jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Light snow knocking on DC's door at 15z (hr 39 on 00z GFS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Okay, time for the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM isn't done with precip at 48 hrs, the run just ends this is the precip type map at 48 hrs....some more snow then a fair amt. of rain I would guess from this a lot of that stuff to the west will dry up coming over the mountains once the waa lift is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 this bot is pretty conservative on NAM snow, so I'd say we're good http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kbwi.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kdca.txt http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_Kiad.txt rain after is a darn shame though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 42 -- snowing in DC 45 -- snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I don't care if it we get heavy rain after the flip; as long as it's a solid thump of heavy snow for 6+ hours prior to the flip like the RGEM shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS - WoW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Light snow knocking on DC's door at 15z (hr 39 on 00z GFS) looks a lot like the NAM at 33 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Rgem is going to rain like a mofo after the flip. Not a fan. I doubt it. Look at 12z ggem. Same type look then most of the precip dries up. Once the waa lift dies out and the warm front gets through the mechanism for the precip dies out. Most of those bands of precip west of the apps won't make it across. Jmho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Is that heavy snow at 48 for DC? Column isothermal... 0.4 at 850, 0.3 at 900 and 0.0 at 925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GFS is a little slower than the Nam. But its a solid thump, some heavy rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Is that heavy snow at 48? Column isothermal... 0.4 at 850 barely http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022000&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Is that heavy snow at 48? Column isothermal... 0.4 at 850 assuming that's the max, that should be wet snow and some grains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 a lot of that stuff to the west will dry up coming over the mountains once the waa lift is gone. I think you're right, but the 00z RGEM looks like the 12z GGEM, which gives the cities several hours of heavy rain immediately after the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 assuming that's the max, that should be wet snow and some grains 0.3 at 900 and 0.0 at 925 as well. if rates are good, should be snow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022000&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 assuming that's the max, that should be wet snow and some grains You will be fine at 48 it is DCA he is talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gfs is too close for comfort. Precip good but column dicey. Worry is a staple here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 call me skeptical but when was the last time a driving rainstorm on the models because a heavy snowstorm in one day....36 hours away from the storm:) Almost never but we almost never have the type of air mass we do now. Wherever that high set up it's Still just too cold for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 barely http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022000&time=INSTANT&var=PTYPE&hour=048 not bad at all http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022000&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=048 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 You will be fine at 48 it is DCA he is talking about. Yes I was, my fault. edited my post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022000&time=INSTANT&var=SNODI&hour=054 That includes whats on the ground now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Dynamics shall overcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 That includes whats on the ground now. Just as good here: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gfs is too close for comfort. Precip good but column dicey. Worry is a staple here. Yeah, I feel like I've seen the too close for comfort too often for MBY - it never works when we rely on dynamics to overcome the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 wow...the theme that west might torch before east really shows up here...hard to believe that DCA is snow or damn damn close at 48...in which case massive thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Gfs has a warm bias and verification scores are bad. Short range is better. Rgem is the best. Ukie has been money all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Just as good here: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015022000&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=054 yep. nice hit. But the rain is torrential after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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