Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Damn, gfs is nearly 2" of qpf for dca for the event.Torrential rain after the flip. Well, if we can get this to be all snow and ice, and very little rain, we may have our biggest storm of the year on our hands! And doesn't the GFS have a warm bias? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 It is wild isn't it. This winter adds ammo to the idea that absolutes, like a crazy +NAO/AO being death for cold, are just not absolute. The Death Ridge out west trumped everything else and brought near record cold to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Damn, gfs is nearly 2" of qpf for dca for the event.Torrential rain after the flip. we get as much snow as we can then hope for as cold as we can get during the deluge. The ground is super cold. I've seen heavy rain smack down on a 6 inch snowpack for hours and leave 4 inches of snow at 36 degrees. Question is, how mild do we get during the heavy rain phase? I know I am in a BAD BAD location for warm air coming in from the southeast But --- Consolation for me is Marylanders get a massive thump of snow, and with luck, some zr and sleet then no rain. THAT outcome for MD would make 50 inches of rain in Dale City worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM lol...massacre.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LOL...my GGEM got stuck at 48...which looks colder than GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 GGEM lol...massacre.. by massacre you mean... and where can I find the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 LOL...my GGEM got stuck at 48...which looks colder than GFS Crushed?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 by massacre you mean... and where can I find the GGEM?This site has it: Http://Google.com GGEM just looks like RGEM, not shockingly. Anyway, UKMET our new favorite is due any minute. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Was the February 2007 system a cad event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Hard to say without soundings but 48 looks like snow for most and ~0.6 has fallen. 51 might even be frozen for some, and still cold at sfc...54 is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ggem .5-.6 by 0z sunday and 850s still solid. Stuck at 48 also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This site has it: Http://Google.com GGEM just looks like RGEM, not shockingly. Anyway, UKMET our new favorite is due any minute. Sent from my iPad The link you gave me sends me to google.com...thanks I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Was the February 2007 system a cad event? I'm wondering about that little snowstorm that could too. That was late February and the airmass was pretty marginal even for late Feb. I'm guessing the Low associated with the moisture just wasn't powerful enough to scurry out a weak cold airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 I'm wondering about that little snowstorm that could too. That was late February and the airmass was pretty marginal even for late Feb. I'm guessing the Low associated with the moisture just wasn't powerful enough to scurry out a weak cold airmass different pattern...we had HP and a block...low went to chicago...temps were right at 32....great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ggem mid to upper 40's sunday with 50's nearby to the south. Won't help with glaciation. I don't think I would really care if I got to watch 6" fall during daylight on Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ggem mid to upper 40's sunday with 50's nearby to the south. Won't help with glaciation. I don't think I would really care if I got to watch 6" fall during daylight on Sat. Amen my brother.. I find most pleasure in watching it fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM snowfall wasn't posted so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 different pattern...we had HP and a block...low went to chicago...temps were right at 32....great storm Ah, a block. I miss those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 RGEM snowfall wasn't posted so.... 8" plus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 8" plus? Ratios less than 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amen my brother.. I find most pleasure in watching it fall Plus we'll replenish the whole pack with the blockbuster season-ender a couple days later. think positive ppl! Plus a day in fifties even a rainy one will be a welcome relief after this clusterf* of frigid days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Plus we'll replenish the whole pack with the blockbuster season-ender a couple days later. think positive ppl! Plus a day in fifties even a rainy one will be a welcome relief after this clusterf* of frigid days right on Ger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Author Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ratio should be 10 to 1. maybe 12 to 1 at onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ratios less than 10:1? We will say 10-1 especially after last weeks ratio debacle and Then watch with the heavier rates how we end up with better ratios, at least initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Ratios less than 10:1? If we can't crack 8:1 at temps below 20 I'm not optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Current surface analysis http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namussfcwbg.gif February 11, 2007 (~48 hr pregame) http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/ncep-charts/hires/20070211/namussfc2007021100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If we can't crack 8:1 at temps below 20 I'm not optimistic that was an anomaly...I had bigger flakes in that snow squall tonight...a thump like that will have plenty of fatties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If we can't crack 8:1 at temps below 20 I'm not optimistic We never got into good rates with that "storm" I'm pretty sure rates is a factor is snow growth which helps determine ratios. This is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 that was an anomaly...I had bigger flakes in that snow squall tonight...a thump like that will have plenty of fatties Fatties always over deliver Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.