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Snow/ice storm disco Feb 21-22


Damage In Tolland

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Snowing and 21* at BWI.  How well was that modeled?

A day or two ago it looked like the fire hose might set up a little further north, towards C and W SNE.  I was really hoping for a thump to mix/drizzle scenario. It's been a while since we saw heavy snow out here in ENY.  Fringed again it looks like.  But these 3-8" events are fun, especially if they occur during daylight.  Slightly above average pack up in the higher elevations.  One big storm and we'll be buried.  Hoping it happens before the spring melt, which is probably only a few weeks away.

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Due to deep layer SW flow I think the western slopes up toward the crest could do relatively well with 4-6". A jackpot of 6-8" is possible in the Taconics and Rensselaer Plateau area. East slope gets shadowed somewhat this go around with 2-4".

I recently moved to the Rensselaer Plateu.  I had never even heard the term before a few months ago.  I had always just called this area the Taconic Hills.  We've already had several impressive upslope enhanced events this year.  Picked up 4-10" a few times when ALB got a D-2"  Often, the snow up here goes largely unreported.  I'm hoping we can cash in on this southerly flow.  This is the first time since I've been here that we've had strong gusts from the south.  Dimed to death lately.  I'd love to see a period of heavy snow for a change.

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I'm not saying I'm right--but the depiction of the temps in the 30's* on this map is where I'm visually extrapolating the northern edge of heavy precipation as seen from regional radar pointi  From their south gets hit good with qpf.  It drops off significantly as you head north.

 

Watch that temp-line.  Hopefully for folks closer to 84, that moves towards them--they can then let evap cooling help the stay as snow.

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IF I was MPM , I probably would have jumped off the French King Bridge 2 snow storms ago.

 

That area has been getting royally screwed in comparison to E SNE setting record after record, if there is a situ where MPM is allowed to b**ch, this recent pattern is it. I don't care if he is average, it's about perspective. Boston just got more snow in 3 weeks then like all but there TOP 3 FULL winters, while MPM sniffed light snow flurries. Ditto anyone living in Far Western or SW CT or West of Berkshire Spine, just a bridge jumper of a last 3 weeks, given what unfolded just to your east.

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IF I was MPM , I probably would have jumped off the French King Bridge 2 snow storms ago.

That area has been getting royally screwed in comparison to E SNE setting record after record, if there is a situ where MPM is allowed to b**ch, this recent pattern is it. I don't care if he is average, it's about perspective. Boston just got more snow in 3 weeks then like all but there TOP 3 FULL winters, while MPM sniffed light snow flurries. Ditto anyone living in Far Western or SW CT or West of Berkshire Spine, just a bridge jumper of a last 3 weeks, given what unfolded just to your east.

Agree, given what unfolded to our East. But someone will always be snowier than someone else. When I got depressed this winter, I would head to the NYC forums. You can feel like a well-adjusted therapist if you compare yourselves to them.

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HRRR tries to ramp things up with the LLJ later this evening. We'll have to watch where this sets up, because I am a little unsure how much QPF makes it north of that. This first batch of light snow may weaken some as we await better forcing to arrive later today.

Scott, where can I look (on models/ sounding) to see where the LLJ sets' up , will its orientation be WSW-ENE

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IF I was MPM , I probably would have jumped off the French King Bridge 2 snow storms ago.

That area has been getting royally screwed in comparison to E SNE setting record after record, if there is a situ where MPM is allowed to b**ch, this recent pattern is it. I don't care if he is average, it's about perspective. Boston just got more snow in 3 weeks then like all but there TOP 3 FULL winters, while MPM sniffed light snow flurries. Ditto anyone living in Far Western or SW CT or West of Berkshire Spine, just a bridge jumper of a last 3 weeks, given what unfolded just to your east.

we have only had 3 snow storms verify at the low end of the forecast since November, every other storm has busted.
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HRRR tries to ramp things up with the LLJ later this evening. We'll have to watch where this sets up, because I am a little unsure how much QPF makes it north of that. This first batch of light snow may weaken some as we await better forcing to arrive later today.

Sounds Like a bearish call on QPF  for N of PIKE folks

 

Will, Please let the queens know where the .5 inch line is on Euro. Perhaps DXR-TOLLAND-BOS/GHG?

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we have only had 3 snow storms verify at the low end of the forecast since November, every other storm has busted.

I mean, if that happened in E SNE while W SNE set records, how do you think "we" would be taking it? Hint.....worse....much much worse lol. You guys have honestly been terrific not filling up the threads with "woe is me" posts every single page while every single day you read about the snow euphoria to the east.

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I mean, if that happened in E SNE while W SNE set records, how do you think "we" would be taking it? Hint.....worse....much much worse lol. You guys have honestly been terrific not filling up the threads with "woe is me" posts every single page while every single day you read about the snow euphoria to the east.

exactly lol, the crying would be unending lol

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I mean, if that happened in E SNE while W SNE set records, how do you think "we" would be taking it? Hint.....worse....much much worse lol. You guys have honestly been terrific not filling up the threads with "woe is me" posts every single page while every single day you read about the snow euphoria to the east.

Too be fair, e MA has been in in a rut relative to surrounding areas for a few years now.....

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Sounds Like a bearish call on QPF  for N of PIKE folks

 

Will, Please let the queens know where the .5 inch line is on Euro. Perhaps DXR-TOLLAND-BOS/GHG?

Here we go....I actually started worrying about this last night, as the inexorable march south on guidance continued, and I read Scooter and Will meusing about how the best snows would be just north of the southwesterly LLJ.....I started thinking "hmmm, what if it never makes it here...I'd almost rather flip to rain for a bit".

Rest assured...

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I mean, if that happened in E SNE while W SNE set records, how do you think "we" would be taking it? Hint.....worse....much much worse lol. You guys have honestly been terrific not filling up the threads with "woe is me" posts every single page while every single day you read about the snow euphoria to the east.

can't sweat the small stuff plus we have done OK.

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Here we go....I actually started worrying about this last night, as the inexorable march south on guidance continued, and I read SCOOTER and Will meusing about how the best snows would be just north of the southwesterly LLJ.....I started thinking "hmmm, what if it never makes it here...I'd almost rather flip to rain for a bit".

Rest assured...

The Euro actually came in a bit stronger with the LLJ and north with the 0C 850mb line and also thicknesses were a bit more packed as well. So actually that would bode well for more precipitation to fall than what the model is showing. You know how the euro usually is on the low side with qpf in SWFEs. 

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It actually throws back higher amounts in northeast CT, similar to the RGEM and HRRR. 0.55 TOL, 0.7 IJD and 0.75 Ginxy

I would expect that as it ramped up the LLJ and packed the thicknesses a bit more with moving 0C at 850mb a tick north compared to 0z.

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The Euro actually came in a bit stronger with the LLJ and north with the 0C 850mb line and also thicknesses were a bit more packed as well. So actually that would bode well for more precipitation to fall than what the model is showing. You know how the euro usually is on the low side with qpf in SWFEs. 

Thanks...must confess, I slept until 12:30 :lol:

Hadn't seen it.

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