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Snow/ice storm disco Feb 21-22


Damage In Tolland

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also watching Philly - northern NJ for signs of over-performer if this will be one, but so far models have trended a little drier

 

Upstream obs from Philly area... colder and best snowfall shifting southeast to DC-Philly corridor, less in NW burbs (ie., NWS looks to bust too high northwest, too low southeast) 

 

Bodes well for eastern SNE

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Upstream obs from Philly area... colder and best snowfall shifting southeast to DC-Philly corridor, less in NW burbs (ie., NWS looks to bust too high northwest, too low southeast) 

 

Bodes well for eastern SNE

Uh no. The nose of the LLJ and forcing moves up into SNE tonight and overnight, so what the obs and radar shows right now is not going to extrapolate well for tonight and the overnight period up here.

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Uh no. The nose of the LLJ and forcing moves up into SNE tonight and overnight, so what the obs and radar shows right now is not going to extrapolate well for tonight and the overnight period up here.

 

I don't follow.

 

Upstream of us: best forcing has clearly shifted southeast from what was expected, look at returns west of Lehigh Valley all surprisingly shredded and contrast to DC-Philly corridor... add to that warming was overdone.

 

Why does that not extrapolate well for eastern SNE?

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I don't follow.

 

Upstream of us: best forcing has clearly shifted southeast from what was expected, look at returns west of Lehigh Valley all surprisingly shredded and contrast to DC-Philly corridor... add to that warming was overdone.

 

Why does that not extrapolate well for eastern SNE?

 

Curt Schilling was once foolish enough to ask: "Why not us?"

 

And look what happened to his video game company.

 

We must learn from this example. We must shovel our roofses, and await the sleet-rain that is our reward.

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I don't follow.

 

Upstream of us: best forcing has clearly shifted southeast from what was expected, look at returns west of Lehigh Valley all surprisingly shredded and contrast to DC-Philly corridor... add to that warming was overdone.

 

Why does that not extrapolate well for eastern SNE?

Because the LLJ strengthens as it gets up into SNE. It isn't just Worcester on east that sees snow. Look at WV. Stuff is exploding over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys right now under the strongest LLJ and that axis is directed at SNE (NOT ONLY E. SNE). Besides CT looks to see the most snow out of this not the Boston area. You might get more snow than forecast but the highest amounts don't look to shift over your house. Snow growth doesn't even look that good over in eastern areas with 0C line at 850mb being much closer to you guys than over on west. Also the best lift is from 850 to 750 and you guys warm above -4C. That is not ideal for snow growth. Areas further west like BDL have that region closer to -8C. Just my two cents.

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Because the LLJ strengthens as it gets up into SNE. It isn't just Worcester on east that sees snow. Look at WV. Stuff is exploding over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys right now under the strongest LLJ and that axis is directed at SNE (NOT ONLY E. SNE). Besides CT looks to see the most snow out of this not the Boston area. You might get more snow than forecast but the highest amounts don't look to shift over your house. Snow growth doesn't even look that good over in eastern areas with 0C line at 850mb being much closer to you guys than over on west. Also the best lift is from 850 to 750 and you guys warm above -4C. That is not ideal for snow growth. Areas further west like BDL have that region closer to -8C. Just my two cents.

 

Lift is actually closer to DGZ for awhile on BUFKit. It does lower later on briefly, but lift looks to be in a decent spot.

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Because the LLJ strengthens as it gets up into SNE. It isn't just Worcester on east that sees snow. Look at WV. Stuff is exploding over the Tennessee and Ohio valleys right now under the strongest LLJ and that axis is directed at SNE (NOT ONLY E. SNE). Besides CT looks to see the most snow out of this not the Boston area. You might get more snow than forecast but the highest amounts don't look to shift over your house. Snow growth doesn't even look that good over in eastern areas with 0C line at 850mb being much closer to you guys than over on west. Also the best lift is from 850 to 750 and you guys warm above -4C. That is not ideal for snow growth. Areas further west like BDL have that region closer to -8C. Just my two cents.

We're taking it from you Max. So sorry.

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