Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We don't really have ice or rain in it as well, but a couple of events had higher water content. NAM ticks colder again. Haven't been following but this one screams breaking cold at game time. Cold air will smoosh this SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nam looks good, cooler and still a good front ender. if it wasn't the nam, I'd be slowly ticking amounts up a shade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Here's my take on the storm for CT. About 1" higher across the board than Spencer's map except NW hills the same. I got burned last storm but am more confident with these amounts. With the 00Z suite coming out I hope I don't regret these amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I've only been living in Newport for 3 years and change. I grew up in upstate NY mostly, but for the 6 years before Newport, I was in Orange County CA for 6 years, so I can't complain too loudly about our weak winter weather, because that place bored me to tears. And we do get some really amazing wind. I've noticed the aquidneck island thing in storm after storm, especially since I drive up to Bristol all the time. You can watch the banks grow as you go up east main road. It doesn't seem to matter whether there's mixing, although thats more likely to happen down here too, but it's not just that. Even in an all snow event, almost regardless of what kind of system it is, we get less. I don't take official measurements, but I live off Ruggles and I'd say the average down here is 20-22 inches. I'd say the upper part of Newport only a couple miles north of here...near Hi-Li, on the Navy Base... averages around 26-27 inches and these averages go up every couple miles as you head north into Portsmouth, Bristol and Fall River. There are no official snowfall stats for Fall River but my guess is they average the same as Providence..which is 36..especially on the north side of town. MBY probably has had around 39-42 inches this winter...but a lot of that has been fluff which sublimates quickly even in these cold temps...The only storm I can think of in recent time when Newport wasn't vastly lower than the rest of the region was December 2009 when we had close to 20 which was probably Newport's biggest snow total since the blizzard of 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Even in Ginx area is mostly fluff as you can see in his drifting video. If this stuff is wet tomorriw night with 24-30 OTG River east we may start having structural issues with the amount of snow on roofs All that drifting was from the last two storms, I have 5.5 w/e in the pack and a solid sleet layer. Some parts when I walk I only sink about 6 inches. I think the pack is so windpacked right now its pretty stout. I had to dig a vent out of a roof today at work, about 18 inches down is a solid ice layer about 1/4 thick., pretty cool down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Nam suggests that mild Sunday may be a mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I feel pretty good about our snow forecast. Would love to pull off 6" or so from this. Could totally see one of those cheap Fairfield Co jackpots too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yours definitely makes the most sense out of all the CT stations. Not sure where they are getting those 1-3" totals for the SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS BUFKIT actually has decent lift in the DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GFS BUFKIT actually has decent lift in the DGZ. You stick with your fancy snow growth and I'll stick to model snow clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 You stick with your fancy snow growth and I'll stick to model snow clown maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I don't take official measurements, but I live off Ruggles and I'd say the average down here is 20-22 inches. I'd say the upper part of Newport only a couple miles north of here...near Hi-Li, on the Navy Base... averages around 26-27 inches and these averages go up every couple miles as you head north into Portsmouth, Bristol and Fall River. There are no official snowfall stats for Fall River but my guess is they average the same as Providence..which is 36..especially on the north side of town. MBY probably has had around 39-42 inches this winter...but a lot of that has been fluff which sublimates quickly even in these cold temps...The only storm I can think of in recent time when Newport wasn't vastly lower than the rest of the region was December 2009 when we had close to 20 which was probably Newport's biggest snow total since the blizzard of 78. I mean, it makes sense to some degree. It's on the south coast. It's not on the sound. It doesn't protrude in any particular way which would advantage it for storms further out to sea, like the cape does. And it's an island. Then, the further away from the coast you are anywhere, the better you're going to be snow wise, no? It's an almost preposterously good natural harbor, because it's so well protected geographically. The early settlers noted this and wrote home about what a swell place it is. Perhaps what they saw, is in a way, all you've been noticing for years. I'd love to hear someone who actually knows their meteorology speak more on the micro climate here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I feel pretty good about our snow forecast. Would love to pull off 6" or so from this. Could totally see one of those cheap Fairfield Co jackpots too. We're due! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Yours definitely makes the most sense out of all the CT stations. Not sure where they are getting those 1-3" totals for the SW. with all the bust-o-rama's this year, seems many are going ultra conservative for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Hi Res Nam came in Snowier and significantly cooler for S CT/SE CT RI EMA during precip...change over later S/SSW winds are lighter on 10M wind graphs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 with all the bust-o-rama's this year, seems many are going ultra conservative for this one. Really? I thought this year has been pretty good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 with all the bust-o-rama's this year, seems many are going ultra conservative for this one. Which shouldn't affect how you forecast a storm at all! Learn from mistakes but don't go conservative just because you busted high on the past couple storms. That will cause you to bust low on this one, and continue to look bad..if that were the case of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Really? I thought this year has been pretty good for us. It has been. Everyone took a hit on the blizzard. Overall a solid job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Really? I thought this year has been pretty good for us. At least down here, pre thanksgiving storm was overpredicted (got mostly rain) 1/27 was called for 20-30, we got 6, post superbowl storm busted the other way with 11 despite predictions of a change to rain, This past Tuesday we got 2 (better than expected)-been a tough forecasting year IMO. My neighbors have all been trashing weather forecasters the whole winter...to that end, models seem a lot more erratic and subject to larger swings in the medium range this winter versus other winters... - but noticing that some forecasters seem to be going light on this event. (which I could see if it were Nov or Dec, but later in the winter these tend to be great front end dumpers.) We have a great antecendant airmass...3 degrees here right now...can't beat that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Haven't been following but this one screams breaking cold at game time. Cold air will smoosh this SE -3/-8 in the NW corner of MA (Greenfield) right now. It's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 At least down here, pre thanksgiving storm was overpredicted (got mostly rain) 1/27 was called for 20-30, we got 6, post superbowl storm busted the other way with 11 despite predictions of a change to rain, This past Tuesday we got 2 (better than expected)-been a tough forecasting year IMO. My neighbors have all been trashing weather forecasters the whole winter...to that end, models seem alot more erratic this winter versus other winters... The shoreline has been more difficult. Tough area to forecast and can easily bust on either side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The shoreline has been more difficult. Tough area to forecast and can easily bust on either side. Very true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 -3/-8 in the NW corner of MA (Greenfield) right now. It's cold. I mean I think it's about the strength of the S Flow. We can see -10 below get to 40 the next day with a poorly positioned high and strong S flow, esp E Of ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 0.9/-3 here. Clear and calm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I mean I think it's about the strength of the S Flow. We can see -10 below get to 40 the next day with a poorly positioned high and strong S flow, esp E Of ORH Yup. Tippy has been all over that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Uh oh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Thinking a general 3-6" for most of SNE, NW of GON-PVD-BOS. Expecting max totals to be close to 6" from NW NJ into far SE NY and perhaps SW CT. This could be an event where the front-end thump performs fairly well in Fairfield and New Haven counties with sneaky higher amounts, even down near Route 15. I'm using a standardized color scheme with snowfall maps going forward, so although the color represents 4-8", I think most totals will be 4-6", instead of 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z RGEM never changes BOS to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 RGEM is pretty snowy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 That's about how I would figure it for central Mass into Western Mass. The rain snow line will be a bit tricky. Lowell to PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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