February 16-17 Storm Threat

[mitchnick]

NAM looks to be every bit north on everything so far and faster through 24

Update 27 Yeah its coming north. new solution upcoming

you can see it on the 24 hr. sim/rad vs. 18Z 30 hr

[Wonderdog]

What on earth is that? Looks like an ice to rain situation. Solutions are out to lunch

Looks as if it turned into an Apps runner.

[ers-wxman1]

there is not one met that does not use models....knowing how to use them, their biases, strengths, weakness, etc., as they are just tools, is the trick/art/expertise

Situation like this you almost have to use a blender approach since not one solution has locked in.

[benjammin]

Situation like this you almost have to use a blender approach since not one solution has locked in.

 

Isn't a blended approach basically saying, "We don't know yet, so we're going to split the difference until we have more data?" I'm not saying it's the wrong way to handle a forecast, but a blended approach isn't the magic bullet to actually get the forecast correct. 

[Amped]

Meh its only the arw sref members that came north.

[Wonderdog]

Isn't a blended approach basically saying, "We don't know yet, so we're going to split the difference until we have more data?" I'm not saying it's the wrong way to handle a forecast, but a blended approach isn't the magic bullet to actually get the forecast correct. 

Sometimes the forecast isn't correct. Remember back in the day when in winter storm situations, a "revised" forecast would be issued, when needed.

[ers-wxman1]

Isn't a blended approach basically saying, "We don't know yet, so we're going to split the difference until we have more data?" I'm not saying it's the wrong way to handle a forecast, but a blended approach isn't the magic bullet to actually get the forecast correct.

It gives an opportunity to give weight to each model...example...40% nam, 25% GFS, 25% euro, 10% previous forecast.

[Inverted_Trough]

Situation like this you almost have to use a blender approach since not one solution has locked in.

I thought the Randy Johnson 80 kt slider was locked in 

[ers-wxman1]

I thought the Randy Johnson 80 kt slider was locked in

Blender approach is based on a public forecast method.

[stormtracker]

Bait

Check your PM

[mitchnick]

Meh its only the arw sref members that came north.

don't know yet of the NAM comes far enough north this run, but it is certainly north with the first wave

[cae]

Looks like the EURO was the first model to sniff out the first wave being the important player in all of this...

 

I think the UKMET was.

[Ravens94]

1016 over Northern Miss hr39. way north Precip into southern OH

[Wonderdog]

1016 over Northern Miss hr39. way north Precip into southern OH

Rain or snow?

[Amped]

don't know yet of the NAM comes far enough north this run, but it is certainly north with the first wave

Doesn't look amped up enough to me although better than 18z.

[stormtracker]

H5 is certainly better vs 18z so far...but we've all been burned before trying to extrapolate/forecast a model

[mitchnick]

it's gunna' be close

that damn vortex in SE Canada needs to move a bit faster to insure a hit

[mitchnick]

still will be close....need a hook left

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=sim_radar&fhr=042&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150215+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[Wonderdog]

The jog to the south occurred in hour 42 or 45 in the last run only to recover and then move up the coast.

[PhineasC]

The SREFs do crazy things all the time if you are just looking at the mean. I have seen it go from 8 inches of snow to 2 to 5 to 0 between 4 cycles.

[yoda]

QPF knocking on DCA door at 45

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Not gonna do it for dc metro but close.

[stormtracker]

it's gunna' be close

that damn vortex in SE Canada needs to move a bit faster to insure a hit

I'm out to 51...just looking at h5, no precip maps..it looks better...still unsure of what it's going to do tho

[stormtracker]

Not gonna do it for dc metro but close.

huh?  You have it past 60 already?

[Bob Chill]

NAM looks a lot like the majority of the euro members. Quite a few drop 2-3". I think we end up with some accum with the lead wave.

[McQuackleton]

h57 does the same as GFS.. zilch

[mitchnick]

it's holding on to a stronger and slower vortex in SE Canada.....models always do that

it will come further north in future runs as it sees that ain't happening

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

huh? You have it past 60 already?

Just looking at sim radar it doesn't look great but hey u never know.

[H2O]

People need to make up their minds. Good run bad run at the same time

[MacintoshPro]

There is a low of Cape Hatteras at hour 54, but the precip shield doesn't look good.

 

 

ETA: At 57 it jumps pretty far offshore.