Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Go Sunday. It's worth it. Stop by the go karts, I'll be shooting video by the announcer (hence my screen name) Awesome man, this would be my first time do they have good turnouts car wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lol GFS "dry" area encompasses nearly all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Awesome man, this would be my first time do they have good turnouts car wise? Off topic, but there is motor cross, go karts, quarter midgets, battle robots, car show, etc all for the same price. When the weather is bad the pRking lots become slick. They have overflow Parking at HACC. Sunday is your best bet. All worth it because it's one ticket price for all the action. Hopefully road crews are prepared with the short notice given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 We have too long a history of underperforming or barely meeting the low end of ranges so we'll see. This I will verify. Most times we come in on the low end of the range. Still, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As has been mentioned by wmsptwx and Mallow earlier the local qpf minimum over true central PA is a bit concerning given that it's been shown by many of the models. It's certainly good to see CTP committing to a warning here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 As has been mentioned by wmsptwx and Mallow earlier the local qpf minimum over true central PA is a bit concerning given that it's been shown by many of the models. It's certainly good to see CTP committing to a warning here though. RGEM spreads that to cover all of us north of 80 with lesser snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Seems to me guidance is honing in on an area of heavier overrunning out ahead and east of the main low. This feature is focused on areas from near D.C. to areas in central PA, depending on which model you look at. Also, there is higher forcing with the dynamics and the stretched/sheared low, so a higher QPF max is there as well. In-between, the globals (sans Euro) have been consistent in showing the central mountains of PA on the lower side of the QPF ranges. I'm not sure what to buy at this point. I don't buy the NAMing of the LSV the last few runs, but could see some higher amounts along or slightly east of I-81, with some "screwing" going on in the I-99 corridor. It all comes down to how the VV's shape up as that 850mb LLJ points in C PA's direction. If any of you saw our snow map earlier today, I think we need to bump some of those totals up. Joe will make that call tonight and I'll re-evaluate things tomorrow morning. Should be a fun storm to track! It's going to come down fast and furious once it starts though...that jet is going to mean business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow...down to +3 already at 7:30pm. I wonder if I can get lower than the -5 I had last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Seems to me guidance is honing in on an area of heavier overrunning out ahead and east of the main low. This feature is focused on areas from near D.C. to areas in central PA, depending on which model you look at. Also, there is higher forcing with the dynamics and the stretched/sheared low, so a higher QPF max is there as well. In-between, the globals (sans Euro) have been consistent in showing the central mountains of PA on the lower side of the QPF ranges. I'm not sure what to buy at this point. I don't buy the NAMing of the LSV the last few runs, but could see some higher amounts along or slightly east of I-81, with some "screwing" going on in the I-99 corridor. It all comes down to how the VV's shape up as that 850mb LLJ points in C PA's direction. If any of you saw our snow map earlier today, I think we need to bump some of those totals up. Joe will make that call tonight and I'll re-evaluate things tomorrow morning. Should be a fun storm to track! It's going to come down fast and furious once it starts though...that jet is going to mean business. Should be a good storm somewhere down this way. I thought that both WGAL and WHTM were both a little conservative with their snowfall maps (2-5)Side note currently 4/-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Down to +1 now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Wow...down to +3 already at 7:30pm. I wonder if I can get lower than the -5 I had last night... Down to +1 now... cloud cover will halt the crash at some point overnight but temps falling around the area right now shows what we missed out on last night with the wind. MDT down to 5 already and the record low for the 21st is 6 that will be set at midnight as long as clouds don't come in and bump temps back up by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Should be a good storm somewhere down this way. I thought that both WGAL and WHTM were both a little conservative with their snowfall maps (2-5) Side note currently 4/-5 We'll see where tonight/tomorrow AM goes with out snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm definitely noting the QPF weakness a lot of model guidance has had in the central part of the state but I'm kinda leery on what to think about it. Overrunning events arriving from the southwest typically don't have that kind of shadowing effect, especially in the absence of a developing coastal secondary...which is usually what would promote such a thing. Will have to see what happens with it I guess. For now the early looks on the start of this event via the RAP look like a pretty solid onset of precip. This event also seems to have a bit of a convective element to it as well, which could lead to some local surprises in snow totals and some pretty intense snowfall at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 cloud cover will halt the crash at some point overnight but temps falling around the area right now shows what we missed out on last night with the wind. MDT down to 5 already and the record low for the 21st is 6 that will be set at midnight as long as clouds don't come in and bump temps back up by then. Yeah. It was -5 here and -9 in Hazleton where my truck is parked. I wonder if the temps could have been close to 10 degrees colder if we didn't have the wind. As for tomorrow's snow event, it'll be interesting to see what ends up taking place and who might actually make out well with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 We'll see where tonight/tomorrow AM goes with out snow map Take care of business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 FRI EVENING UPDATE... DIGESTING THE AFTERNOON 18Z RUNS...CONCERNS CENTER ON TOTAL SYSTEM QPF AND A REDUCTION IN PRECIP RATES AND QPF AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PASSES EAST OF THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON AND DOWNSLOPING REDUCES OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES. ECMWF QPF IS MOST ROBUST OVERALL...BUT EVEN IT STRUGGLES TO PRODUCE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR MOST (6"/12 HOURS). OUR WARNINGS STRADDLE THAT 6" BENCHMARK AND CAN`T SEE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME...IN FAVOR OF SEEING A FULL 00Z PACKAGE AND ADJUSTING UP TO THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL BY MID MORNING SAT. CTP's latest take on the precip issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 MDT down to 2... at this rate we may break 0 and set record low today before midnight... edit: though york just jumped from 4 to 11 with a light southerly wind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 FRI EVENING UPDATE... DIGESTING THE AFTERNOON 18Z RUNS...CONCERNS CENTER ON TOTAL SYSTEM QPF AND A REDUCTION IN PRECIP RATES AND QPF AFTER THE INITIAL BURST OF WARM ADVECTION PASSES EAST OF THE REGION SAT AFTERNOON AND DOWNSLOPING REDUCES OVERALL SNOWFALL RATES. ECMWF QPF IS MOST ROBUST OVERALL...BUT EVEN IT STRUGGLES TO PRODUCE WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR MOST (6"/12 HOURS). OUR WARNINGS STRADDLE THAT 6" BENCHMARK AND CAN`T SEE MAKING ANY HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME...IN FAVOR OF SEEING A FULL 00Z PACKAGE AND ADJUSTING UP TO THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL BY MID MORNING SAT. CTP's latest take on the precip issue. Well, originally the WSW was for 5-9 inches, and they just updated it and lowered the totals to 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Will this be a wet snow or a dry snow? Currently -5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The slow cutback of numbers continues...we're now <0.5 on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just dropped to -3 in my backyard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm fully expecting 2 to 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Recently updated snowmap has 6-8" for MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm Clouds Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I still am so lost as to why State College is not putting York and Lancaster in warnings? The NAM (including the latest 00z run) has been targeting that area for good snows and GFS has been too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I still am so lost as to why State College is not putting York and Lancaster in warnings? The NAM (including the latest 00z run) has been targeting that area for good snows and GFS has been too right?They don't like us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 They don't like us.LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Eric Horst going big or going home on twitter. Says wouldn't be surprised if spots in NorLanco see 8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS is somewhere out in LaLa Land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 The GFS is somewhere out in LaLa Land... Is it? Somehow, after all this, I could see that being closer to verification than the NAM. Of course, I'm not a met, and I'm just going on the historical nature of storm evolution since I've lived in Tamaqua. As far as temps go, I've tied my low for the day (and all time since I bought my weather station) already. Down to -5 here. I need one more degree. Can I do it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 CTP's short term forecast is, well, sexy. .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... FRI LATE EVENING UPDATE... 00Z SAT NAM12 HAS ARRIVED...AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF QPF IS NO MORE CLEAR. LOOKING AT 700-850 MB FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS WRT NAM12 QPF...IT APPEARS THE MODEL IS FOCUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF A DEVELOPING REGION OF FRONTOGENESIS SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQ. EVENT PRECIP ACCUMS NOW EXCEED 1 INCH FROM THE SINGLE NAM12 RUN. MEANWHILE...PREVIOUS SREF PLUMES INDICATE MEAN VALUES OF .4" TO .8" ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WON`T MAKE ANY CHANGES BASED ON ONE MODEL RUN OBVIOUSLY...BUT IT APPEARS THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN TRICKY THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AS EVOLVING FORCING FROM INCREASED BAROCLINICITY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PA WILL BE COUNTERACTING DECREASING WAA WITH DEPARTING INITIAL WAVE AND DOWNSLOPE IN BROADER WSW FLOW ALOFT. BOTTOM LINE...OUR WARNINGS CONTINUE TO STRADDLE THAT 6" BENCHMARK AND WON`T MAKE ANY HEADLINE CHANGES AT THIS TIME...IN FAVOR OF SEEING A FULL 00Z PACKAGE AND ADJUSTING UP TO THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL BY MID MORNING SAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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