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Super Snow Sunday

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Yes GFS is a great example of what could go really well with this

 

Yup. But do we buy it? I kinda don't.

 

All I'm saying is that I've been hurt before and there's a natural hesitation when I try to let myself love again.

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Yup. But do we buy it? I kinda don't.

 

All I'm saying is that I've been hurt before and there's a natural hesitation when I try to let myself love again.

 

I don't not buy it. With that mid level low track and how cold the low/mid levels are it's definitely a possibility.

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I don't not buy it. With that mid level low track and how cold the low/mid levels are it's definitely a possibility.

 

Personally, I just wanna see the Euro rock hard for a run down in this vicinity... and there isn't a ton of time left in which for it to do so.

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The 12z GFS is pretty close to the 0z from last night.  Probably some good snows back into VT.  A hair better east and a hair worse far west.  Blizzard for eastern areas.

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Personally, I just wanna see the Euro rock hard for a run down in this vicinity... and there isn't a ton of time left in which for it to do so.

 

 

Euro is definitely being a bit of a turd in the punchbowl for the 12"+ idea for E MA...it's pretty good, but doesn't quite get up to that extra gear that the RGEM/Global Forecast System (just for you) are doing....even the much maligned SREFs are hitting the idea somewhat.

 

It's funny because not long ago, the Euro had been the most bullish on this whole threat. We'll see what 12z says...it's not like the Euro is bringing this ULL over GON...it's still pretty far south with the important features which is a good thing. I'd just like to see it deepen a little faster.

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At least the breeze will make it look like it's snowing harder than it might actually be coming down in GC, so we can pretend.

Just measure the drifts it'll make you feel better.

Euro is kind of out there again, with all but uncle being such a solid hit odds are tremendous it folds like a cheap suit in 100 minutes

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Euro is definitely being a bit of a turd in the punchbowl for the 12"+ idea for E MA...it's pretty good, but doesn't quite get up to that extra gear that the RGEM/Global Forecast System (just for you) are doing....even the much maligned SREFs are hitting the idea somewhat.

 

It's funny because not long ago, the Euro had been the most bullish on this whole threat. We'll see what 12z says...it's not like the Euro is bringing this ULL over GON...it's still pretty far south with the important features which is a good thing. I'd just like to see it deepen a little faster.

 

I think the only saving grace keeping me from just clinging to the Euro because of trust issues is the fact that every now and then it's the Euro that fails to go brimstone when the brimstone is real.

 

I'm not by any means saying that's the case here, but it's a possibility. We'll see what 12z does... even a slight shift to a better look dramatically shifts the overall consensus for me because of the weight I tend to give to it.

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Great to see another crushing run from the GFS...but still have my guard up lest I be hurt again

How much did it put up into NH?  Probably a bit better for you than me, but who knows....maybe I get a get wrapping around backlash band.

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Euro is definitely being a bit of a turd in the punchbowl for the 12"+ idea for E MA...it's pretty good, but doesn't quite get up to that extra gear that the RGEM/Global Forecast System (just for you) are doing....even the much maligned SREFs are hitting the idea somewhat.

 

It's funny because not long ago, the Euro had been the most bullish on this whole threat. We'll see what 12z says...it's not like the Euro is bringing this ULL over GON...it's still pretty far south with the important features which is a good thing. I'd just like to see it deepen a little faster.

 I agree.

 

It's the only reason I didn't go 1-2'....I def. hesitated...the upper end of my range may be high.

We'll see.

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Rgem on board is reassuring albeit a bit out of its range. I think we're heading for what most seasons would be a MECS. It this year we've been spoiled.

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We talked about that earlier Wxniss.

 

Must have missed it. Sometimes things get echoed in here and the initial thought is buried in pages.

 

The relationship between how cold an ULL low is and the baroclinic requirements for surface low development: i.e., will a colder system such as this require less baroclinicity to develop a low than the models depict, and the party starts much sooner as this reaches ocean waters? This will be a rare example to learn from.

 

Lots of pressure on the 12z Euro to flinch towards NAM/GFS/RGEM

 

Did Uncle sober up from last night?

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I'm noticing a trend in a lot of the models to speed up the start and end times for snowfall with this.

 

What was initially an early Sunday morning to late Sunday night event now looks like early afternoon Saturday through late morning event

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I'm noticing a trend in a lot of the models to speed up the start and end times for snowfall with this.

 

What was initially an early Sunday morning to late Sunday night event now looks like early afternoon Saturday through late morning event

A little different point but i think they are somewhat related.

Pretty sure it was weathafella who said it. The big ones always start earlier than modeled and end later.

I totally agree. I have seen 6-12 hours more snow than modeled more times than i can count.

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Must have missed it. Sometimes things get echoed in here and the initial thought is buried in pages.

The relationship between how cold an ULL low is and the baroclinic requirements for surface low development: i.e., will a colder system such as this require less baroclinicity to develop a low than the models depict, and the party starts much sooner as this reaches ocean waters? This will be a rare example to learn from.

Lots of pressure on the 12z Euro to flinch towards NAM/GFS/RGEM

Did Uncle sober up from last night?

Well I don't think there is a linear relationship like that, but there is something to it. Sometimes you get these weird little convective blobs or lines that Non-hydrostatic models may have trouble handling. I'm not saying to throw any solutions out, just to be a little cautious about them or any funky dual low deals.

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Ggem says outside of some island in Penobscot Bay nobody's getting that much. Tossed

 

I like the GGEM's mid-level look...much more than the Ukie...it's just not spitting out much more than a half inch of QPF.

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Well I don't think there is a linear relationship like that, but there is something to it. Sometimes you get these weird little convective blobs or lines that Non-hydrostatic models may have trouble handling. I'm not saying to throw any solutions out, just to be a little cautious about them or any funky dual low deals.

 

Yeah for whatever reason GGEM/RGEM seem to do this alot. Both have had solutions with juggling lows that move this party too far east for SNE before it really gets organized. Sometimes (as in the previous blizzard) it's not the verbatim solution but a signal that the dominant low will actually be more west or east.

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I like the GGEM's mid-level look...much more than the Ukie...it's just not spitting out much more than a half inch of QPF.

Still the h5 low kind of opened up as it was perhaps heading under us. I found that odd.

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Like it or not the euro is the middle ground so far.

 

This is why it's got those chafe marks from me... GGEM and Ukie pushing the goal posts in a direction few enjoy, very late in the game.

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Yeah for whatever reason GGEM/RGEM seem to do this alot. Both have had solutions with juggling lows that move this party too far east for SNE before it really gets organized. Sometimes (as in the previous blizzard) it's not the verbatim solution but a signal that the dominant low will actually be more west or east.

Too late in the game for a middle ground solution. Surprised ggem pulls away post 48. Lots of down/smaller sized potential still

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The American consensus vs. foreign suites not sitting easy right now... 

Ukie and GGEM looks make this 12z Euro run even more critical for confidence in the bigger SNE impact, and historically, we have reason to be nervous.

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