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Extreme cold February 2015


Rainman

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-17 in Bad Axe already.

 

its cold outside.....

 

side note, over 100 cars either in ditches or stuck and abandoned in the middle of roads yesterday afternoon into the overnight from the blowing snow in huron county including cop cars and a tow truck. Some drifts were 5 feet deep in spots on the eastern side of the county where there was an added couple inches of powder from les last night.

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It's crazy cool. I just edited above as now that everyone's in bed I can hear the ice cracking occasionally on the lake. :)

 

Two PWSes around Fenton are claiming -21 and -22 right now. PWSes are known to get wonky at low temperatures, but yeah, I'm not surprised you're hearing ice cracking out there.

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For posterity...from NWS Gaylord:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
835 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

WITH A BIG BLUE /H/ DEAD OVERHEAD...BASICALLY CALM WINDS AND
ONLY PATCHY THIN CIRRUS ABOVE...TEMPS ARE OFF TO THE RACES.
ALREADY A LARGE NUMBER OF SITES ARE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...AND
MIO IS -20F. (AND WE/RE ONLY JUST NOW STARTING TO APPROACH SURFACE
DEW POINTS.) IT IS DIFFICULT TO IMAGINE BETTER CONDITIONS FOR A
VERY...VERY...VERY COLD NIGHT. BUT...THAT CIRRUS WILL BE
THICKENING FROM W TO E FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ANTICIPATE
COOLING WILL SLOW SUBSTANTIALLY IN NW LOWER TOWARD 06Z...AND NE
LOWER/EASTERN UPPER MI BY 09Z.

THAT SAID...TEMPS STILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD...IN SOME
PLACES DRASTICALLY SO (LIKE ROGERS CITY...AT -18F ALREADY BELOW
FORECAST MINS ALONG THE COAST). WILL LOWER 5 TO 10F ACROSS THE
BOARD. COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE IN THE AU SABLE VALLEY EAST OF
GRAYLING...AROUND -40F. (THESE NUMBERS ARE VERY MUCH UNCHARTED
TERRITORY FOR THIS PARTICULAR FORECASTER.)

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

...COLD...COLDER...COLDEST...

OVERVIEW: DEEP SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CORE OF COLDEST AIR (AT LEAST
ALOFT) NOW SETTLING INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME SUBTLE WARMING ALOFT
TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. ONE MORE WEAKER SHORT
WAVE NOTED UPSTREAM IN NRN MINNESOTA INTO ONTARIO PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT PRECIP...BUT WILL LARGELY JUST BRING SOME CLOUD COVER THROUGH
NRN MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SFC...LARGE EXPANSE
OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR NOW SETTLING INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. ALONG WITH NORTHERLY FLOW...HAS
BROUGHT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO EASTERN UPPER AND LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY.
SOME LAKE CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN AND HURON AS WELL AS SUPERIOR IMPACTING CENTRAL UPPER
MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE...VERY COLD CONDITIONS OUT THERE AS
ANTICIPATED...WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO. BELOW ZERO HIGHS FOR MANY SPOTS...A RARITY FOR NRN MICHIGAN.

WIND CHILLS...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...BUT STILL A FEW LOCATIONS
IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN REPORTING ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND CHILLS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY CLEAR AND COLD. WINDS GO CALM THIS EVENING WHICH
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR RAPID RADIATIONAL COOLING. AND WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS RUNNING -15F TO -25F THIS AFTERNOON POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
-20 TO -30 TEMPS (OR COLDER) TONIGHT. BUT TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS
COMPLICATED BY UPSTREAM MID CLOUD THAT WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT AS WELL AS LAKE CLOUDS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY GET
SHOVED BACK INTO NW LOWER AND PARTS OF EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TOWARD
MORNING AS MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES BACK AROUND MORE WESTERLY.
CLOUDS MAY EVENTUALLY HALT OR REVERSE TEMP TREND BUT LIKELY NOT
BEFORE SOME PRETTY COLD READINGS ARE ACHIEVED IN MANY AREAS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AU SABLE RIVER VALLEY INTO NE LOWER MICHIGAN
WHERE I/M REASONABLY CONFIDENT A FEW SPOTS HIT -30F OR COLDER.

WIND CHILL HEADLINE THROUGH 7 PM: AS MENTIONED...WITH WEAKENING
WINDS MANY SPOTS ARE NOW BELOW WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA SAVE FOR
A FEW SPOTS IN EASTERN UPPER AND NE LOWER MICHIGAN. AND WITH WINDS
GOING CALM THIS EVENING...AM COMPELLED TO CANCEL MOST IF NOT ALL THE
ADVISORY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST. BUT...I/M ALSO BORDERED BY
ADVISORIES TO THE SOUTH WHICH GO ALL NIGHT COMPLICATING THINGS. AT
THIS POINT...WILL JUST LET THE ADVISORY RUN ITS COURSE THROUGH IT/S
SCHEDULED END TIME OF 7 PM WHEN WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

...COLD COLD GO AWAY COME BACK ANOTHER DAY...

A LOT OF PEOPLE PROBABLY REALLY WISH THAT THE ABOVE HEADLINE WOULD
COME TRUE. OF COURSE THE CURE ALL IS TO SIMPLY GET ON A PLANE AND
HEAD SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY...MOST OF US CAN NOT ACTUALLY DO THIS SO I
WILL HAVE TO BE THE BEARER OF BAD NEWS. THE BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PERHAPS WE
MAY NOT BE LOOKING AT QUITE AS EXTREME CONDITIONS GOING OUT IN THE 7
TO 10 DAY RANGE (AS THE PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED)...BUT WE
STILL WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS YOU CAN EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME
WITH RIDGING OUT WEST SENDING ANOTHER PIECE OF BRUTALLY COLD AIR
DOWN FROM THE ARCTIC FOR MIDWEEK. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF
ALBERTA CLIPPERS WILL LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FLURRIES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE USUAL
SUSPECTS...TEMPS AND POPS.

MONDAY...A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW AND COMBINES WITH A
CONVERGENT SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW TO LIKELY SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW
INTO LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE COUNTIES AS THERE IS PLENTY OF OVER
LAKE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH (THOUGH THERE IS ALSO INCREASING ICE
COVER). THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY HAVE A HARD TIME SPREADING INLAND
DUE TO FAIRLY LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW (SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS IN
THESE AREAS. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THERE IS LITTLE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH (PERHAPS UP TO AN INCH). HIGHS LIKELY BREAKING
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ANOTHER CLIPPER AND REINFORCING SHOT
OF COLD AIR WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION BY TUESDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
REGION. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO (HIGHEST NEAR THE LAKE
MICHIGAN SHORELINE). LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...VERY COLD NORTHWEST FLOW LIKELY TO
BRING SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND FLURRIES. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH A FEW TEENS BELOW MAINLY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 75. HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO (BURR).

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2015

AND THE COLD CONTINUES. AMPLIFIED RIDGING ON THE WEST COAST WILL
BE MET WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND ANOTHER SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR FOR MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS FROM MIDWEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHEN A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. GIVEN CURRENT ICE
COVER...AND THE LIKELY EXPANSION OF THIS AS TEMPS REMAIN VERY
COLD...EXPECT THE LAKE EFFECT TO BE LIGHT. THE CLIPPER WILL BRING
A SHOT FOR SOME WIDESPREAD SNOWS...BUT A BROADENING OF THE TROUGH
OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES COMBINED WITH WINDS BACKING
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER WILL
MODERATE TEMPERATURES A BIT. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS CLIPPER HAVE
BEEN VARIED OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
SPECIFICS OF WHEN AND WHERE IT WILL ARRIVE.

 

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11 PM EST:

 

NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN  
 
 
CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
 
ALPENA         MOCLDY   -22 -28  74 CALM      30.47F                    
BEAVER ISLAND  MOCLDY    -9 -15  77 CALM      30.45F                    
BELLAIRE       PTCLDY   -15 -21  74 CALM      30.49F                    
CADILLAC       MOCLDY   -15 -21  73 CALM      30.36F                    
CHARLEVOIX     PTCLDY   -11 -17  72 E3        30.49F                    
FRANKFORT      MOCLDY    -2 -11  65 CALM      30.46F                    
GAYLORD        PTCLDY   -21 -27  73 CALM      30.38S                    
GRAYLING       FAIR     -21 -31  62 CALM      30.41F                    
HARBOR SPRINGS MOCLDY   -14 -22  67 CALM      30.46S                    
HOUGHTON LAKE  PTCLDY   -16 -22  74 CALM      30.41F                    
MANISTEE       MOCLDY    -2 -11  65 E3        30.46S                    
OSCODA         MOCLDY   -18 -28  60 CALM      30.48S                    
PELLSTON       MOCLDY   -21 -27  73 CALM      30.47F                    
ROGERS CITY    MOCLDY   -11 -21  62 W6        30.49S WCI -25            
TRAVERSE CITY  MOCLDY   -10 -17  71 CALM      30.47F         

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Erie, PA tied their all time coldest temperature on record this morning with a -18 reading. You can thank a frozen solid Lake Erie for that.

Many stations in interior NW PA and NE Ohio were in the -20s with a handful in the -30s. Likely quite a few locales in this area set all time coldest temperatures this morning.

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Detroit tied and thus superceded the record low of -9F today. There have only been two times on record with a temp -9F or colder later than this in the season. I noticed the temp ranged wildly based on my drive into work. I hit a -13F when I drove thru the usual cold spot just south of DTW (which at this time was reporting -8F, a temp it held for hours before finally hitting -9).

Flint smashed their record with -21F, White Lake (DTX) was -23F, & Port Huron -26F! Just wow.

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Environment Canada confirms this morning was the coldest ever for Waterloo Region since records began in 1915!

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE
NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:06 P.M. EST MONDAY 16 FEBRUARY 2015.

RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EVENT INFORMATION RECEIVED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

NEW LOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE SET FOR FEBRUARY 16. IN
MANY CASES THE RECORDS WERE SMASHED BY SEVERAL DEGREES.  INFORMATION
IS FOUND IN THE TABLE BELOW.  PLEASE NOTE THAT THE YEAR THAT RECORDS
BEGAN CHANGES DEPENDING ON THE WEATHER STATION.

THE RECORD OF -34.1 C SET AT THE WATERLOO AIRPORT REPRESENTS THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURE EVER RECORDED AT THIS SITE SINCE RECORDS WERE
KEPT BEGINNING IN 1970. THIS TEMPERATURE ALSO BEATS OUT AN OLDER
RECORD FROM THE ADJACENT KITCHENER CITY OF -33.9 SET BACK ON
FEBRUARY 9, 1934.  RECORDS AT KITCHENER CITY HAVE BEEN KEPT SINCE
1915.

THE NIAGARA REGION HAS ALSO SEEN ITS COLDEST FEBRUARY TEMPERATURE ON
RECORD OF -31.9 AT WELLAND. THE OLD FEBRUARY RECORD OF -31.1 WAS
SET AT WELLAND ON FEBRUARY 9, 1934. RECORDS THERE GO BACK TO 1873.


LOCATION      NEW RECORD    PREVIOUS RECORD AND YEAR   RECORDS BEGAN

WINDSOR         -26.7         -18.5     1979               1941
RIDGETOWN       -29.6         -27.8     1899               1886
SARNIA          -28.3         -21.2     2004               1968
LONDON          -30.5         -24.4     1963               1941
WATERLOO A      -34.1         -23.0     1979/1987          1970
WIARTON         -34.3         -25.6     2014               1948
HAMILTON        -29.1         -26.1     1866               1866
WELLAND         -31.9         -23.3     1904               1873
TORONTO PEARSON -24.4         -23.9     1939               1938
TORONTO ISLAND  -22.4         -21.7     1979               1905
BUTTONVILLE     -25.3         -22.5     1987               1987
BARRIE          -30.0         -26.5     1987               1973
MUSKOKA         -35.4         -34.4     1963               1939
PETERBOROUGH    -31.0         -26.5     1987               1969
TRENTON         -26.9         -25.6     1943               1935
KINGSTON        -28.4         -24.5     2003               1932


PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY MAY CONTAIN PRELIMINARY OR UNOFFICIAL
INFORMATION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A COMPLETE OR FINAL REPORT.

END
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Ouch, that sounds like quite the sh!tuation.

 

Floor drain fountains of the worst kind. :raining:

 

Deep frost penetration over the weekend + no one in the building allowed freezing to occur. Then people show up on Monday and start flushing. And then the frozen clog makes itself known.

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Not a hint of snow in the LAF, so these p&c forecasted numbers are most likely too cold...but fairly impressive nonetheless for mid-February. Wednesday max temp would break the airport record (10˚ in 1993)...Thursday would shatter it (20˚ in 1979).

 

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy and cold, with a high near 8. Wind chill values as low as -16. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. 

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. West northwest wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. 

Thursday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near 7.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around -3.

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Wednesday night through Friday morning is going to be brutal around here. Even though we have snow on the ground to the north and to the south of me, only one inch here or it could be worse (or better, depending on your pov).

 

It's funny how this "Extreme Cold This Weekend" thread has stretched through the following week.  It's looking like after a "mild" Saturday, the stretch will pick back up. Rainman may want to change the thread title.

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February 1936 was an unbelievable month, especially in the northern Plains/upper Midwest.  Notice the scale on this map

 

 

attachicon.gif1936.png

North Dakota hit their all time record low that month, -60 in Parshall on the 15th

 

As for local record in jeopardy over the next few days:

 

FEBRUARY 19TH...RECORD LOW MAXES

DETROIT... 9F (1939)

FLINT..... 8F (1959)

SAGINAW... 10F (1959)

FEBRUARY 20TH...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES

DETROIT... -8F (1934)

FLINT..... -21F (1929)

SAGINAW... -12F (1929)

FEBRUARY 20TH...RECORD LOW MAXES

DETROIT... 9F (1896)

FLINT..... 12F (1929)

SAGINAW... 10F (1918)

 

Not included in the record lows, Thursday night also could be in record territory.

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