Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The .25 line gets just west of EWR and more as you go east. There's a max of over 3" of QPF juuuuust SE of Maine.the good thing is even after the low develops as it departs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maine is still snowing pretty good at 72, man are they going to get smoked! And they already have 50-60 inches on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Beware that the south trend only really helps if it can turn negative somewhat quickly off the coast, if it tracks south of us but is more or less positively tilted til offshore it won't make a huge difference. This looks like a rich man's version of 2/25/90 to me right now, stronger low with a norlun type feature that may impact the same general latitude but extend further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'd honestly be shocked if it does, I think the GFS holds serve, but after the NAM just did this, I'm getting the feeling that the RGEM, GGEM and ECMWF hold right where they have been, the next SREF run goes more south and the UKMET goes south again. I think it's going to be GFS vs the world again after the EURO comes in tomorrow morningthe GFS has been trending south I think it caves tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Actually qpf responded more than I originally thought .25+ line now covers northeast quadrant of NJ. That line was offshore at 18z. If you can pull .3 or .4 liquid out of this, that is a solid 4 to 6 inches. and...are do we continue to trend in a favorable direction tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Total qpf: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Beware that the south trend only really helps if it can turn negative somewhat quickly off the coast, if it tracks south of us but is more or less positively tilted til offshore it won't make a huge difference. This looks like a rich man's version of 2/25/90 to me right now, stronger low with a norlun type feature that may impact the same general latitude but extend further west.SnowGoose, sounds like you are unimpressed by this south trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Norlun looks through LI and north of NYC.Edit: also, it's the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The snow map that accounts for ratios has 60+ inches for down east Maine, that's tear inducing awesomeness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SnowGoose, sounds like you are unimpressed by this south trend? I think we have to rely too much on the inverted trof, I think it will be well positioned for people between coastal CT and Staten Island but they don't always deliver. I think we need to see this turn negative faster to see more significant snow blossom NW of the low outside of the inverted trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 As seen here, the heaviest banding closest to our area remains over western CT into SNY and has barely moved from 18z to 00z 18z 00z Not to rain on any parade (it'll be snow anyway) but the trends have to be LEAPS, not ticks here and there.....to get into the bigger stuff, that is. As far as a 2-4" event (with higher amounts east) becoming more likely, THAT is possible.....But when we are dealing with a 15-30" event headed north, I just want to make sure that the information is not misleading for some thinking that we may get into anything at all like that. We could get a light snowfall from this and set the stage for the greater event early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 SnowGoose, sounds like you are unimpressed by this south trend? He's saying even with the closed off h5 coming south, without the trough turning negative quickly this still scoots to our NE fast instead of slowing down and getting tugged closer to the coast. This is an IVT or bust scenario for us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hes saying even with the closed off h5 coming south, without the trough turning negative quickly this still scoots to our NE fast instead of slowing down and getting tugged closer to the coast. This is an IVT or bust scenario for us IMO. The good news is I think the positioning of that trof is going to be fairly stable from here on in, the orientation of everything at 500-850 argues for it to position itself very close to the axis of LI and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 2/13 00z Summary Sat PM (2/14) - Sun AM (2/15) QPF NYC region (CNJ- NYC) SREF: 0.10 - 0.20 NAM: 0.15 - 0.45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Hes saying even with the closed off h5 coming south, without the trough turning negative quickly this still scoots to our NE fast instead of slowing down and getting tugged closer to the coast. This is an IVT or bust scenario for us IMO. We could get 1-3" even without the inverted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Beware that the south trend only really helps if it can turn negative somewhat quickly off the coast, if it tracks south of us but is more or less positively tilted til offshore it won't make a huge difference. This looks like a rich man's version of 2/25/90 to me right now, stronger low with a norlun type feature that may impact the same general latitude but extend further west. That's a terrific point to raise now at this juncture before people get too excited about the H5 evolution/trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We could get 1-3" even without the inverted trough. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm secretly hoping this is March 2001 in reverse. Sorry for the banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'm secretly hoping this is March 2001 in reverse. Sorry for the banter. I am openly hoping this is March 2001 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Coastal Maine getting NAM'd good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Coastal Maine getting NAM'd good... Yeah not too bad huh? 3-5 feet coastal ME to Nova Scotia lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The .25 line gets just west of EWR and more as you go east. There's a max of over 3" of QPF juuuuust SE of Maine. I can't lie , I don't like the model . But it's VV and its 500 mb placement are more important than the QPF it spits out to me. Gun to my head like I told Timmy before I sign for 4 with 40 mph winds. Maybe we rally to the GEM , I just want to see more. But the NAM looks good aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The RGEM continues to dig way south at 48, the GGEM may remain similar tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Snowgoose summed it up pretty well that the initial movement of the trough scoots everything NE towards New England too fast for a huge snow event around NYC, but the 500mb low going underneath can hopefully mean the flow backs from off the ocean and some snow banding can work back into LI and NYC, enough for 3-5" maybe. Boston probably gets double that, then huge amounts in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The RGEM continues to dig way south at 48, the GGEM may remain similar tonight So far south of the other models. Maybe it's on to something. Who knows. The look the rgem has at hr 48 would be a much bigger deal for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol..... Man oh Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 You can see the even darker 5-6 foot shade in NB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 996 over dca on rgem lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 996 over dca on rgem lolcan you post a pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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