Doorman Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://preview.weather.gov/graphical/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Gotta love Upton...... They don't even include eastern Suffolk,though maybe there right not to . HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 500 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 CTZ007-008-132200- NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON- 500 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL. ADDITIONALLY. WIND CHILLS COULD REACH 25 TO 30 BELOW ZERO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. $$ HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 500 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 CTZ011-012-132200- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- 500 PM EST THU FEB 12 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND INTENSIFIES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png Updated snow map,looks really reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks more consolidated. One would hope the hr 54 spread would look more consolidated than hr 60. Don't think that's a function of anything other than less time for less spread in the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png Updated snow map,looks really reasonable They know their Long Island climo well. Look at the tiny southern Nassau screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 They have also upped the amounts in the click forecast section as well.looks like there getting on board. No Bob this storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Srefs continue to north of the area at h5.... .10+ NJ .25+ nyc/long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Srefs continue to north of the area at h5.... .10+ NJ .25+ nyc/long island They are still N at H5 but they ticked south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 They are still N at H5 but they ticked south We need to start seeing more then ticks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We need to start seeing more then ticks I think the GEM is wrong man. Pains me to say it , but its alone. I will take the euro .35 at 12 to 1. It looks like Uptons map. 40 mph wind gusts and take a shot at 0 I will sign right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think we should see some sort of consensus tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think the GEM is wrong man. Pains me to say it , but its alone. I will take the euro .35 at 12 to 1. It looks like Uptons map. 40 mph wind gusts and take a shot at 0 I will sign right now. Agree...would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think we should see some sort of consensus tonight. Nope, tomorrow maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think we should see some sort of consensus tonight.I think it will take until 0z tomorrow night to resolve the differences. I'll take a blend of the gfs/euro/rgem as the final solution.As of now: To me this looks like a 1-3" snowfall until you get to LI where it's 2-5"....then you reach eastern Suffolk where it's 6"+. Very windy conditions area wind with blowing snow and reduced visibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 We need to start seeing more then ticks Exactly. At this rate of ticks, we'd need another 6 days to give NYC 6 inches. We need wagons SW instead of ticks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I think it will take until 0z tomorrow night to resolve the differences. I'll take a blend of the gfs/euro/rgem as the final solution. As of now: To me this looks like a 1-3" snowfall until you get to LI where it's 2-5"....then you reach eastern Suffolk where it's 6"+. Very windy conditions area wind with blowing snow and reduced visibilities. I agree, this has all the workings of a Long Island and New England special. In fact, this is a rare case where I think nyc itself sees maybe a 2-3 inch snowfall and the nw suburbs see a coating to an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So far (thru 27hrs) there are improvements everywhere at 5h. Vort is stronger, digging more to the southwest, western ridge has more amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So far (thru 27hrs) there are improvements everywhere at 5h. Vort is stronger, digging more to the southwest, western ridge has more amplitude.music to my ears. Keep singing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thru 36hrs, positive trends continue. its digging more compared to 18z at the same time....and its more than just a tick. Upstream ridging better, downstream ridging better. This could end up a solid 50 to 75 miles south of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 music to my ears. Keep singing The NAM can sing anything it wants and I will always autotoss it like the garbage it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The NAM can sing anything it wants and I will always autotoss it like the garbage it is.not when it's within 40 hours and you know that. It has scored many a coup before in that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thru 36hrs, positive trends continue. its digging more compared to 18z at the same time....and its more than just a tick. Upstream ridging better, downstream ridging better. This could end up a solid 50 to 75 miles south of 18zWhat is making you think this is going to end up almost 75 miles south of 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Thru 36hrs, positive trends continue. its digging more compared to 18z at the same time....and its more than just a tick. Upstream ridging better, downstream ridging better. This could end up a solid 50 to 75 miles south of 18z where is the 500 Mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 At 45 the low is in north central PA, I can't load the 4 panel image to see the 500 vort but it looked SW at hour 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam looks the same to me as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 not when it's within 40 hours and you know that. It has scored many a coup before in that rangenam=not accurate modelThe model is garbage sorry to break it to u but for once I agree with rjay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Well, here's HR 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Nam looks the same to me as 18z I disagree.. Even NE thread is saying otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 45hrs, 5h low is over central OH vs. northern OH. Downstream ridging offshore is sharper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Turns out pretty Meh, I thought it would look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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