Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Definitely south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I really don't think there will ultimately be any huge changes on the NAM.....most likely more of the usual "it wants to do it but just misses" type of stuff.....we need more than a slight trend SW to get the better accumulations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It is without a doubt south and the .25 contour is close to the city but still nothing exciting really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 If anyone thinks the NAM didn't just make a huge shift south here, then they don't know what they're looking at. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Be nice when People say for our area,they refer to there area by geographical location,only because long island doesn't compare to NYC or Jersey, and you don't wanna confuse the new comers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It is without a doubt south and the .25 contour is close to the city but still nothing exciting really. Still snowing moderately at hour 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 when a very experienced red tagger in New England threadlike ORH says it is south then it is significantly south, how that plays out in terms of QPF is to be seen but the pattern and the trend is there and it is now established Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes H5 pretty far south....that's all we need to see at the hr 60 nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEM now has company Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes H5 pretty far south....that's all we need to see at the hr 60 namis it going to come off the coast south of the Delmarva? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Still snowing moderately at hour 60.Yeah, I see that on Sim radar, but totals are still low considering where the vort tracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Rule of thumb in my book,the trend is your friend till you trended to much lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It did go south and pretty far south at that I just looked through the panels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 5h low is definitely 50 miles further south (exits thru south central NJ vs. NYC at 18z). Surface did not respond as much as I would have thought, but its great to see such a large move southward. The trend all day has been south with the large majority of the guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Let's see if the GFS joins the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 PNA peaks around this time so it could get more interesting. It would argue this trends further south rather than north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Here's a better look, HR 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It did go south and pretty far south at that I just looked through the panelsAs per Orh in the NE thread, H5 closes off over Phl (I haven't looked) at hr 57. Great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 PNA peaks around this time so it could get more interesting.AO is also trending towards negative in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Maine is still snowing pretty good at 72, man are they going to get smoked! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Its certainly south 18z: 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Yes H5 pretty far south....that's all we need to see at the hr 60 nam Exactly. With regards to the Nam we are just looking for trends south at this point. From that standpoint a good run indeed and a very good start for the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 As per Orh in the NE thread, H5 closes off over Phl (I haven't looked) at hr 57. Great sign.that man is one of the most knowledgeable mets round. We just took a huge step in the right direction ladies and gentlemen.all day long the signs have been pointing in this direction and we've all been hesitant. This is step one. Step 2 in an hour. Step 3: three and a half hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 5h low is definitely 50 miles further south (exits thru south central NJ vs. NYC at 18z). Surface did not respond as much as I would have thought, but its great to see such a large move southward. The trend all day has been south with the large majority of the guidance So, if we had to line up the models in terms of North to south 5h coastal exit, how'd that list go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Its certainly south 18z: 0z: that's a beautiful sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Barely even worth posting, but the SREF members are around 2" snow for NENJ/NYC area with almost all clustered between 1" and 2.5", down just slightly from its previous run. (Boston area 10-18" and down east Maine 20-30") Thus far, this winter has produced many incredibly impressive storm systems that are beautiful sites on weather maps, but not equally impressive in terms of snowfall directly over the NJ/NYC area. At least it gives us images to save and stuff to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Interesting that you can see the response at the surface with the kink in the isobars indicating the inverted trough feature definitely shifting further south, not much change in the qpf, but dont focus on the qpf for now. If this look continues tomorrow, or even trends further south, things could really get interesting for NYC/northern half on NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 GEM now has companyPauly as much as I hate the nam it looked much better and it's only trending better and better for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The .25 line gets just west of EWR and more as you go east. There's a max of over 3" of QPF juuuuust SE of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Let's see if the GFS joins the party.I'd honestly be shocked if it does, I think the GFS holds serve, but after the NAM just did this, I'm getting the feeling that the RGEM, GGEM and ECMWF hold right where they have been, the next SREF run goes more south and the UKMET goes south again. I think it's going to be GFS vs the world again after the EURO comes in tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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