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President's Day Weekend 2015 Storm Potential 2/14-2/15


bluewave

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As per Orh in the NE thread, H5 closes off over Phl (I haven't looked) at hr 57. Great sign.

that man is one of the most knowledgeable mets round. We just took a huge step in the right direction ladies and gentlemen.all day long the signs have been pointing in this direction and we've all been hesitant. This is step one. Step 2 in an hour. Step 3: three and a half hours
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5h low is definitely 50 miles further south (exits thru south central NJ vs. NYC at 18z). Surface did not respond as much as I would have thought, but its great to see such a large move southward. The trend all day has been south with the large majority of the guidance

So, if we had to line up the models in terms of North to south 5h coastal exit, how'd that list go?

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Barely even worth posting, but the SREF members are around 2" snow for NENJ/NYC area with almost all clustered between 1" and 2.5", down just slightly from its previous run. (Boston area 10-18" and down east Maine 20-30")

Thus far, this winter has produced many incredibly impressive storm systems that are beautiful sites on weather maps, but not equally impressive in terms of snowfall directly over the NJ/NYC area. At least it gives us images to save and stuff to look at :)

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Interesting that you can see the response at the surface with the kink in the isobars indicating the inverted trough feature definitely shifting further south, not much change in the qpf, but dont focus on the qpf for now.  If this look continues tomorrow, or even trends further south, things could really get interesting for NYC/northern half on NJ

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Let's see if the GFS joins the party.

I'd honestly be shocked if it does, I think the GFS holds serve, but after the NAM just did this, I'm getting the feeling that the RGEM, GGEM and ECMWF hold right where they have been, the next SREF run goes more south and the UKMET goes south again. I think it's going to be GFS vs the world again after the EURO comes in tomorrow morning
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