Atomixwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 looking on the radar,the clipper looks like its getting bigger? Clipper on steroids. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 looking on the radar, the clipper looks like its getting bigger? Maybe a sign that forecasts will change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Maybe a sign that forecasts will change? I could be totally wrong, so take what I say with a grain of salt, I don't know much lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Nice to see CTP painting 4-6 for much of the CWA, with far eastern and northern zones receiving less unfortunately that map only goes out to 7pm Monday. which would be for just the clipper. any affects from the coastal are not shown on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NWS seems to be playing it a little conservative in my opinion. Be interesting to see how things play out. I think that map will be changing a little. So far this season we have been over archiving. Lets see if the trend continues. BIG THANK YOU to whoever got us back up and running!!! Did that crash deploy both airbags :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 The latest SREF plumes has Harrisburg at 10" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 #Desperationmode The 9z SREF mean has 14.5" for AVP. #S**tsandgiggles one member has 45". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Wow SREF has us over 9 inches lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 NICE ADVISORY/WATCH COMBO FOR LSV Statement as of 7:54 AM EST on January 25, 2015 ... Winter Weather Advisory now in effect from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday... ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning... The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * Locations... the lower Susquehanna valley. * Hazard types... snow. * Accumulations... 3 to 5 inches tonight through midday Monday. Additional significant accumulation is possible from a secondary storm Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. * Timing... snow should arrive this evening and last through Monday. However... most of the accumulation will likely occur tonight. Additional significant snowfall will develop on the western edge of a strong secondary storm Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning... and several more inches of snow are possible in the watch area at that time. * Impacts... hazardous travel. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Hazardous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Use caution if traveling. For the latest weather information... go to weather.Gov/statecollege or monitor NOAA Weather Radio. Report snow or ice accumulation to the National Weather Service State College by sending an email to [email protected]... posting to the NWS State College facebook Page... or tweet @nwsstatecollege with the hashtag c... T... p... W... x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Light snow here with moderate-sized aggregates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Light snow here with moderate-sized aggregates.Nice little teaser/pregame for the main event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'm surprised that Clinton and Lyco don't even have advisories, not that high of a threshold only 2 to 4 needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREFs are notoriously over amped on the western edge of Miller B's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Looks to me SREFs are ok even if you count that out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREFs are notoriously over amped on the western edge of Miller B's. #DesperationMode has no interest in your reality sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think the advisories are advisories and not warnings because of the amount of time in which this event is going to span. Most areas are under an advisory for 4-6, which, I believe under normal circumstances would warrant a warning due to the possibility of over 6 inches, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I think the advisories are advisories and not warnings because of the amount of time in which this event is going to span. Most areas are under an advisory for 4-6, which, I believe under normal circumstances would warrant a warning due to the possibility of over 6 inches, no? warning criteria for much of PA is county wide average of 6" over 12 hours or 8" over 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I wonder if the Susquehanna valley will receive more than the NWS is projecting for us. Is it possible? It is possible but hard to say until system gets closer to developing off of coast. There is more moisture worked into this system than the clipper we had on Wednesday and I believe ratios look to be better too (correct me if wrong) To get above the projection we may have to rely on what falls on western side of strengthening system. Far too often we see the dry slot screw job than the narrow deformation banding. I would think the areas that may over perform for those in this forum would be more scattered than widespread. 4-6" I think is a pretty good storm total forecast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREFs are notoriously over amped on the western edge of Miller B's. To me, this has all the markings of the Boxing day storm from a few years ago. The most painful storm to watch in nearly 50 years of following winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Unlike Friday I will have time to crank out one of my new-fangled snowmaps today, which will be including BOTH the clipper and eventual coast storm. I will be waiting on some 12z guidance to input some QPFs. I'm currently trying to scheme how I want ratios. Snow growth of this clipper should be great but warmish surface temps might keep accums from getting out of hand due to ratios. Might be why SREFs are pretty high overall. Right now working my map mostly on 12-14 ratios and 15 in the Laurel Highlands. Speaking of temps, they crept back above freezing over night here. Sitting at 34F at the moment. I'm glad I have a pretty sheltered yard and surrounding woods. Took a snow depth measurement and it's only down to 8" from around 8.5-9" yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 warning criteria for much of PA is county wide average of 6" over 12 hours or 8" over 24 Yes. I was answering wmsptwx's question as to why Clinton and Lycoming havent received advisories and that usually a 4-6 would because the advisory is over a 25 hour period. Under usual circumstances, we would probably be looking at warnings (depending on county-wide averages) with a smaller time-frame of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 To me, this has all the markings of the Boxing day storm from a few years ago. The most painful storm to watch in nearly 50 years of following winter weather. I can think of several just as bad, if not even worse, and all in the last 5-10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I can think of several just as bad, if not even worse, and all in the last 5-10 years. Well some of those you're referring to we did quite well down this way. You're in an area that often misses from 2 directions. We've been fortunate lately with the southern stream storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Thinking hard to take a road trip to NYC for the next couple of days. Unreal storm totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 Well some of those you're referring to we did quite well down this way. You're in an area that often misses from 2 directions. We've been fortunate lately with the southern stream storms. (Decided to move this rant to the banter/complaint thread.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'll meet you in banter PSU lol. In all honesty I was expecting 2 to 3 and if I get that I'm happy. Not sure if we get there though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 25, 2015 Author Share Posted January 25, 2015 I'll meet you in banter PSU lol. In all honesty I was expecting 2 to 3 and if I get that I'm happy. Not sure if we get there though. This region needs its own subforum for banter and complaining the way things go with these storms. You'll probably see a little more (3-6") thanks to the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 SREFs are notoriously over amped on the western edge of Miller B's. Usually you can weed out the typical over-amped runs by looking at the general consensus of the ensembles. I'm not completely against what that method shows for eastern areas ONCE you take out the obnoxious members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 Yea dude, if people from I 95 we're here they wouldn't know what to do lol, they are nervous they might only get 10 or 11. That's about the max we can get in my neck of the woods ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 25, 2015 Share Posted January 25, 2015 On mobile so can't really check, what is approx start time tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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