Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Central PA & the fringes - January 2015 Part II


Recommended Posts

Do you guys mind if I use some of your reports for my snowfall map I'm making for my morning shows? CTP's PNS statement is pretty thin (right now), and it helps me fill the gaps...thanks ahead of time!

 

I just cleared for 6 hours at 4.8". Still snowing hard, it was all out 2-3" per hour stuff 10-15min ago when I was out shovelling. Gonna get some pics up here shortly. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

About to go to sleep here, but just measured 4.3" on the roof of my car. Was a bit more than I was estimating.

 

Per radar, looks like we should pick up a bit more before all is said and done, and our total for the storm may approach 5". Definitely an overperformer in my mind.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

100 miles west...not impossible. We were looking at snow showers from this one a couple days ago, now we could have a few inches.

 

Radar though...not liking it as much as I did earlier. Worried this one might wrap up in a couple hours.

 

How much do you have so far?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Agreed about Dr. S -- great guy. Biggest thing he taught me was to really dig deep for reasoning on forecasts. That forecasting class he teaches would always stress that you can absolutely have different numbers than MOS/grids/etc...but if you are different, you better make darn sure you have a reason why. 

 

The thing with borderline events is, that even with warm layers in the column, big fatty aggregates can REALLY drag the sub-freezing air into the warm layers...like how turning on your shower creates a little bit of a breeze. You're right, with the isentropic lift and LLJ lining up over the LSV, the rates were able to overcome boundary layer issues to produce plowable snows across much of the area. Classic.

 

I literally just started this class this past week in my last semester of undergrad. You are right. He's big on getting you to think like a forecaster would at a NWS office or even in the private sector where probabilistic forecasting is used heavily. You can go off models and MOS grids all day long, but you will not be right to the point where you verify all that often. He and Eric always said the models are guidance, not gospel. Any regular Joe who can read a model can make a forecast from one and walk away. A real forecaster will use more intuition and prior experience from past events and basic climatology to make a more robust forecast that benefits the area of interest. This storm is an excellent example of why you never take models verbatim. The HRRR and RAP earlier today (or Yesterday really) had us basically being rain for a majority of the storm. A lot of people took that to heart and threw away any idea of snow. Well, you can see where that went. This just shows that human elements are still superior to our computer counter parts. They are guidance for a reason and a good forecaster with a great understanding of said guidance and meteorology will get a forecast right more times then not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice pics mag.

Did this thing come a little further NW or was the precip shield more expansive?

 

NW extent of the precip seemed to be as advertised, with Pittsburgh being right on the edge of it and not too much going on further NW of you. I think the intensity of the precip was what overachieved (that's the magic of a juiced up Gulf storm) and snow growth was very efficient. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NW extent of the precip seemed to be as advertised, with Pittsburgh being right on the edge of it and not too much going on further NW of you. I think the intensity of the precip was what overachieved (that's the magic of a juiced up Gulf storm) and snow growth was very efficient. 

Ok thanks...Hope we can squeeze the clipper in as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like 4.6" will about do it here in Bellefonte. Nice event, especially considering where this was modeled a few days ago. Solidified our snow cover for next week's cold regardless of what the clipper does.

 

EDIT: Speaking of the clipper...just took a look at the 06z GFS.  Looks significantly better for most of us, >0.25" for all of true Central PA.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok....just got up (went to bed around 2:45).  I haven't measured yet, but when I went to bed I had a total of only 2.4".  Eyeballing, I'd say another inch tops, or around 3.5".

 

I think compaction played a bigger role in keeping my total down.  For me this storm underperformed.  NWS had me in 6-8", it seemed pretty likely I'd get around 6.  Once again, points north, west, and east did better.  Not sure about south, although I thought I read a report in York county of 5".

 

Oh well...on to the clipper.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...