Cashtown_Coop Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 2001kx looks like he got you And gave 1-83 a jackpot down in southern York County. Which will prob justify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Any ideas why it's raining here yet radar shows all snow? It's a light steady rain, it's waking away the existing snowpack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 And gave 1-83 a jackpot down in southern York County. Which will prob justify Well wasn't it that I-83 Blizzard user who always had higher totals than everyone else in the LSV? MAG just had him in mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well wasn't it that I-83 Blizzard user who always had higher totals than everyone else in the LSV? MAG just had him in mind Def has done well last few years along with northern Carroll County in MD. Better moisture and higher elevations help boost totals. 34/33 and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 WTF mag...You had to carve around Clearfield - Haha I didn't mean to I swear, that's just how the software calculated the snow totals. The actual amount calculated for Clearfield is 4.8". And gave 1-83 a jackpot down in southern York County. Which will prob justify Ugh I just realized I straight up missed updating the snow ratios for those two points from the cold Jan 5 clipper, so I have I-83's location and Red Lion at 0.5" QPF and 17:1 ratios (8.5").. That's why that little spot showed up. It should be standard 12:1 (6") for both points. Oh well, I'll just say it's the I-83Blizzard jackpot . This map's a work in progress, I made it from scratch and I'm slowly getting the process of entering values in simplified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Any ideas why it's raining here yet radar shows all snow? It's a light steady rain, it's waking away the existing snowpack! You must be that tiny green spot down there. I would think you would be getting snow soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Any ideas why it's raining here yet radar shows all snow? It's a light steady rain, it's waking away the existing snowpack!Main batch of precip to our west once that gets here we will change to snow. 10pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Haha I didn't mean to I swear, that's just how the software calculated the snow totals. The actual amount calculated for Clearfield is 4.8". Ugh I just realized I straight up missed updating the snow ratios for those two points from the cold Jan 5 clipper, so I have I-83's location and Red Lion at 0.5" QPF and 17:1 ratios (8.5").. That's why that little spot showed up. It should be standard 12:1 (6") for both points. Oh well, I'll just say it's the I-83Blizzard jackpot . This map's a work in progress, I made it from scratch and I'm slowly getting the process of entering values in simplified. When you have so many eyes analyzing the map, things will be spotted. I really like this layout and color codes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 Btw MAG, which model(s) did you go with for your forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Temp down to 34 in Lemoyne. Still plain rain. These storms always have wrinkles and it looks like wrinkle #1 is the rain at the outset. Maybe we'll get lucky tomorrow night and get a rogue snow band to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 It will get cold even here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Temp down to 34 in Lemoyne. Still plain rain. These storms always have wrinkles and it looks like wrinkle #1 is the rain at the outset. Maybe we'll get lucky tomorrow night and get a rogue snow band to make up for it. I'm in Summerdale and its snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 have a mix here some snow rain and sleet down to 34 with a high of 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Well wasn't it that I-83 Blizzard user who always had higher totals than everyone else in the LSV? MAG just had him in mind Has not continued this year! Last event was mostly rain while the northern crew cashed in due to temps. Not sure what this storm will deliver, but this season had been lame down here so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Light rain and 34 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Btw MAG, which model(s) did you go with for your forecast? I tried my best to blend, I upped amounts in far eastern PA for coastal deform but didn't quite go full Euro. I actually went conservative from a QPF standpoint in the western half of PA (but high ratios of 15:1 in the Laurels) where most models are solidly 0.5-0.75" over the next 24-36hrs. I have most of the points in SW PA and the Pit gang set at 0.5 and 12:1 (6.0") The Lower Sus Valley and I-81 corridor in NE PA is my biggest question mark and bust potential. The Euro remains the one that really gets eastern PA from the NY line right on down the Delaware to Philly. The farther east models like the GFS would translate a weak spot in the precip right down 81 thru the Sus Valley and more of a 3-5" event. While NYC stands to get it's teeth kicked in by this coastal storm, they better hope for the Euro to be right if they're going all time or bust. I believe the record for Central Park is still 26.2" set in the Feb '06 blizzard. Speaking of which, sounds like the mayors going full tilt.. "My message to all New Yorkers is prepare for something worse than we have seen before. Prepare to be safe. Take every precaution. Now is the time to get ready for this extreme weather," he said. "Don't underestimate this storm." I'm sure the 1888 blizzard would beg to differ, I could only imagine a repeat of that today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Try projecting the map in PA State Plane South in the future. Much better presentation, otherwise nice work. Thanks, I changed it to that.. it does look better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 26, 2015 Author Share Posted January 26, 2015 I tried my best to blend, I upped amounts in far eastern PA for coastal deform but didn't quite go full Euro. I actually went conservative from a QPF standpoint in the western half of PA (but high ratios of 15:1 in the Laurels) where most models are solidly 0.5-0.75" over the next 24-36hrs. I have most of the points in SW PA and the Pit gang set at 0.5 and 12:1 (6.0") The Lower Sus Valley and I-81 corridor in NE PA is my biggest question mark and bust potential. The Euro remains the one that really gets eastern PA from the NY line right on down the Delaware to Philly. The farther east models like the GFS would translate a weak spot in the precip right down 81 thru the Sus Valley and more of a 3-5" event. Of course we got the biggest bust potential - I'm not a part of "the fringes" for nothing! I'm right now thinking somewhere in between the ECM and the others...sadly the ECM is a bit of an outlier. We'll see how that breaks for the 0z suite. I'm sure the 1888 blizzard would beg to differ, I could only imagine a repeat of that today. Hurricane Sandy would probably argue against both of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Snow/rain mix here now, transitioning to all snow slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 I tried my best to blend, I upped amounts in far eastern PA for coastal deform but didn't quite go full Euro. I actually went conservative from a QPF standpoint in the western half of PA (but high ratios of 15:1 in the Laurels) where most models are solidly 0.5-0.75" over the next 24-36hrs. I have most of the points in SW PA and the Pit gang set at 0.5 and 12:1 (6.0") The Lower Sus Valley and I-81 corridor in NE PA is my biggest question mark and bust potential. The Euro remains the one that really gets eastern PA from the NY line right on down the Delaware to Philly. The farther east models like the GFS would translate a weak spot in the precip right down 81 thru the Sus Valley and more of a 3-5" event. Of course we got the biggest bust potential - I'm not a part of "the fringes" for nothing! I'm right now thinking somewhere in between the ECM and the others...sadly the ECM is a bit of an outlier. We'll see how that breaks for the 0z suite. I'm sure the 1888 blizzard would beg to differ, I could only imagine a repeat of that today. Hurricane Sandy would probably argue against both of them... Speaking of Sandy, I did see one of the met's in the NYC thread (think it was an OKX met) mention about the 850 fetch which the SREFs have pegged at -6 (Six!) standard deviations..something he hadn't seen since Sandy. It's hard not to go big on snow with something like that. I'm glad our region at least should see a half decent event as is.. I would hate to watch this from the sidelines being high and dry. Six standard deviations. That's just insane. Good evening everyone...yes today's NWS forecasts were heavily weighted toward the 12Z NAM/ECMWF...no secret there if you read the WPC QPF discussion. Seeing 850 winds whose u-component was I think +6 SD's beyond the mean (to say nothing of a fetch from almost beyond Nova Scotia, something I have not seen since Sandy) tends to make one think big on snowfall. My forecast of 24-30" (the graphics showing 24-36" are a little misleading) may be a little broad-brushed, and depends on where the most intense banding sets up. As usual I think it'll be west/north of model forecast and more along a line from Danbury to NYC than from Hartford to Huntington. Will probably be widespread 18-24" with a band of at least 24-30". GFS was totally discounted due to its more progressive solution...no loop-de-loop near or inside the benchmark late Mon night-Tue from a Miller B storm of this magnitude? C'mon now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So is there any chance of a East/ West wiggle? Or does everybody think we are pretty locked in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 First flakes mixing in. Rain gauge reads 0.14" of wasted snow 33/32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Light snow here, sidewalks already have a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 So is there any chance of a East/ West wiggle? Or does everybody think we are pretty looked in? I think it's pretty well locked it. Typically, if anything furthest west model scoots east, furthest east scoots west and they meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Wet snow now in Lemoyne. Temp down to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Snow starting to mix in and hope transition happens quickly. Also hoping we have another tick west tonight before they settle back east tomorrow. Nervously awaiting 0z suite here In the miller B skip/jip zone capital of the world...Lancaster county. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 33 and light snow here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 All snow now in Ephrata. Let the games begin! Whatever happens it's still better then where we were a couple weeks ago. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 Nothing but light rain here thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 26, 2015 Share Posted January 26, 2015 flurries flying here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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