mikemost Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 WPC said the exact same thing when the models brought boxing day back. USCG, do you have that discussion by chance? Not doubting you, just curious to see the verbiage they used at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Doorman wrote that for WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anyone on the forum work for Sanitation or OEM and know how long it takes to gear the City up for this type of event? I would think they are at least half way there. Sanitation had all their plows and salt trucks geared up for today's event, so it's probably not like they would have to start from scratch. If models continue the trend, I bet they keep the plows on the collection trucks for Monday and brings them in to redeploy as plows as the snow starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The coldest 5 day period is in front of us Early Jan we had a week of - 12 , think we have a chance next week to beat it . I have been saying we are going to beat the 4 we saw in early Jan , and Feb may just turn out to be BRUTAL . I love the Euro and I live and die by it , but I just want to see it replicate this 1 more x , these jump scenarios happen . They get going late and smash SNE . The misses are always on my mind . Great run if it verified would be one we will talk about over and over . The Euro burned me at 12z Wed when I bought the CCB over the island , so I am cautious . I think if it pulls this again tonight at 0z, there's a real chance of it happening. This run should get people's attention but it's been known to get overexcited sometimes. And the other models should hopefully keep coming west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 They might wanna look at the new srefs. Lol. Oh my. Expand please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 They might wanna look at the new srefs. Lol. Oh my. Are the 15z out already? Not that it matters much since the SREFs are still kind of out of their range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 That is one heck of an UL capture as the 500 mb energy goes bonkers. Unreal evolution! Goes to show us how superior the Euro is, not matter what they do to the gfs. Lol I want to see more posts from you on this storm.....I look foward to your posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 USCG, do you have that discussion by chance? Not doubting you, just curious to see the verbiage they used at the time.I could look for it and I will, but I didn't save it. Give me a few and I will see if I can find it brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Are the 15z out already? Not that it matters much since the SREFs are still kind of out of their range...They're not like the EURO, but it looks like a New England blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The reaction in NYC OEM Watch Command after seeing the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 They're not like the EURO, but it looks like a LI/SNE blizzard like the NAM SREFs runs off the NAM members correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like two camps. An absolute bomb and a weaker, OTS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 SREFs runs off the NAM members correct? Including http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/index_old.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Looks like two camps. An absolute bomb and a weaker, OTS solution. Ton of westward lean there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Ton of westward lean there... Agreed. Thats what we all love to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Would not be shocked to see NAM bite towards the Euro at the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Waiting to see indiv sref members, but there is also the chance that the mean shows what it does because there are some arw members which runs off the GFS which develop things different upscale. The NMM on ewall had its control going a bit south a little compared to others, which would likely result in the eastward track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 1" of QPF on the SREF for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 While we don't have a -NAO today's storm acts as a 50/50 low and with the ridge spike out west..the energy really digs. This is doable. Folks if this storm materializes you can thank today's event Yeah, today's event is the 50/50 with cold high pressure to our north. All our higher end snowstorms were preceded by stronger -AO than this one was. So the Euro verbatim will be a first for us as that December 2003 was a weaker event compared to the 12z Euro. Lowest -AO readings leading up to NYC 12"or greater snowstorms since 1965: February 13-14, 2014.....12.5........1-27......-2.605 January 26-27,2011.......19.0.........1-22.......-2.411 December 26-27, 2010..20.0.........12-18.....-5.265 February 25-27, 2010....20.9..........2-14.......-5.132 February 11, 2006..........26.9.........2-3...........-2.729 January 22-23, 2005......13.8........1-22............-2.621 December 5-7, 2003......14.0........11-15.........-0.382 February 16-17, 2003.....19.8.......1-22...........-3.575 December 30, 2000.......12.0........12-29.........-4.688 January 7-8, 1996..........20.2.........12-19........-4.353 February 11, 1994..........12.8..........1-10..........-3.073 February 11-12, 1983......17.6.........2-6............-3.410 February 19, 1979...........12.7.........1-25...........-4.387 February 5, 1978............17.7..........2-5............-5.291 January 19-20, 1978.......13.6.........12-21.........-2-274 February 9-10, 1969.......15.3..........2-8..............-3.448 February 6-7,1967..........12.5...........1-29...........-2.225 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The reaction in NYC OEM Watch Command after seeing the 12z Euro Suffolk County Oem is already flipping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 1" of QPF on the SREF for NYC This is still a great sign.. It's not the euro but it's a baby step.. Plus 1+qpf for most with guarantees ratios of 12:1 or higher depending on location... I'll take that anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 No -NAO, No problem. 50 50 low will do the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Btw I know it's the GFS, and I hate Boxing Day references.. But NWS tossed the GFS when it brought the Boxing Day blizzard back 2 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Anyone on the forum work for Sanitation or OEM and know how long it takes to gear the City up for this type of event? 2 days for best prep but they can deploy plows and salt trucks rather quickly which they have up till tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 What's this talk by the WPC on convective feedback on the EURO resulting in this solution? Any mets care to chime in on that? they said the same thing in dec 2010. and we got 20 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Btw I know it's the GFS, and I hate Boxing Day references.. But NWS tossed the GFS when it brought the Boxing Day blizzard back 2 days outMike had asked me to look for that WPC discussion, could you possibly help me out with that? I'm having trouble finding it in the archives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 The 12z Canadian was 5-8" or so for the NYC area, much less west, 10-15" across LI and 15"+ for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Mike had asked me to look for that WPC discussion, could you possibly help me out with that? I'm having trouble finding it in the archives. I'll try and see if I have it saved, at the time it didn't stand out to me till after the storm of course lol I'll look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 I'll try and see if I have it saved, at the time it didn't stand out to me till after the storm of course lol I'll lookThank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Do you know why I'm so confident in the euros solution.. Not necessarily the amounts but the track and solution? How many times have we seen the euro bite this hard within 72 hrs on what was a far different solution a day ago then loose it again...anyone? I've learned when it comes to the EURO, it has the best handle on coastal events. Another more important thing to point out, for the most part it likes to lock in to the track once inside 72 hours. With this potential rare event, we have both factors on our side. A potentially historic event is about to unfold, and everyone's going bonkers. I wish Earthlight would chime in and give us his thoughts cause he's always a voice of reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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