Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

[dendrite]

The nice thing is the slow steady creep up.  Did the Euro ens also increase again?

They mean was finally pretty close to the op.

[CoastalWx]

RGEM made a noticeable shift SE. Seemed almost out of character.

[powderfreak]

Grade school paste just smeared all over the trees.. Crashing, thrashing

 

Yeah good luck...can be real damaging even in winter.  The December cut-off condo crusher up here resulted in the largest weather related power outages in Vermont, even more than the historic 1998 Ice Storm and Hurricane Irene.  You get 12"+ of 5:1 or 7:1 snow and its going to cause some problems.

[SR Airglow]

RGEM made a noticeable shift SE. Seemed almost out of character.

Yeah was not expecting that. It's basically 4-6" for most with an area of 6-8" from ORH to BOS.

[TalcottWx]

RGEM made a noticeable shift SE. Seemed almost out of character.

Because the NAM is full of sh*t.

[powderfreak]

RGEM made a noticeable shift SE. Seemed almost out of character.

 

Eh that model can jump around quite a bit.  It did it several times in the last event up here.  One run it was 1.8" QPF, the next it was 0.75", then it was 1.2", then 0.5", etc.  Its still a Canadian model

[CoastalWx]

Yeah was not expecting that. It's basically 4-6" for most with an area of 6-8" from ORH to BOS.

 

It's not as widespread with QPF. Seems a little off.

[CoastalWx]

Eh that model can jump around quite a bit.  It did it several times in the last event up here.  One run it was 1.8" QPF, the next it was 0.75", then it was 1.2", then 0.5", etc.  Its still a Canadian model

 

I'd like to rely on it, but that made me a little uneasy now. In euro we trust.

[CoastalWx]

GFS tickled SE too.

[CT Rain]

GFS tickled SE too.

 

A bit cooler it seems? 

[powderfreak]

I'd like to rely on it, but that made me a little uneasy now. In euro we trust.

 

I know QPF is the worst scoring skill of the models, but I think the EURO has this one for you guys.  No reason not to trust it through its track record over long term.  Though remember the last event, the EURO completely shat the bed with QPF here (it had 1.4-1.6" 12 hours out that verified 0.6" at MVL) on that needle threader when I had my last minute QPF queen worries.

[MarkO]

Not if the Euro is right..If it's not..then i will. No harm no foul either way.

 

Congrats everyone

 

 

 

Jackpot! Naturally that makes me nervous.

[Damage In Tolland]

Colder solutions.. def gonna win out as we saw at 12z and now 18z..Mixing becoming less of an issue 

[moneypitmike]

Not if the Euro is right..If it's not..then i will. No harm no foul either way.

 

Congrats everyone

 

 

That's precisely the scenario I presented in my response to Chris.

 

Boston gets an advisory, everywhere west gets a warning

 

There's a lot of territory out west that's in an advisory.  Ironically, the places it usually snows:  Franklin County/western Hamphire/western Hampden.

[CoastalWx]

A bit cooler it seems? 

 

Yeah seems it.

[CoastalWx]

I know QPF is the worst scoring skill of the models, but I think the EURO has this one for you guys.  No reason not to trust it through its track record over long term.  Though remember the last event, the EURO completely shat the bed with QPF here (it had 1.4-1.6" 12 hours out that verified 0.6" at MVL) on that needle threader when I had my last minute QPF queen worries.

 

Well the low track shifted SE too. But, you also need the dynamics to help offset warmth aloft. It's possible to have the storm shift SE, but temps aloft might be a hair warmer without the good lift.  It's a delicate balance. 

[SR Airglow]

RGEM is cooler as well. Only can see BOS right now, but it's about 6-7" of snow there(4" front end and 2-3" back end) and 0.2" of plain rain, no ice or sleet. Will post total maps when they come out.

[CoastalWx]

Not saying that will happen here PF, but that's just an example.

[NorEastermass128]

Yeah seems it.

A little less robust with the initial WAA surge too it seems? Backend looks very good.

[Zeus]

Yeah seems it.

 

Looks like a snowy Saturday evening on the back end for EMA across the suite.

[Bryan]

Yeah seems it.

Scott, what are you thinking for our neck of the woods? Seems like we're kinda on the border of things.

[Damage In Tolland]

BOX has been hitting power outages hard..I'd hope your local media outlets hit it hard tonight as we're going to see a good deal of outages..You slap 6-10 inches of Elmers onto the trees and lines..problems will abound..see Tgiving

 

NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston  18m

18 minutes ago

[4p] Winter Wx Headlines & amounts posted. Heavy snow banding expected Sat. aftn - eve

 

•  

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM came in less amped/crazy....it's still a pretty solid storm but not that wild solution it had at 12z

 

[TalcottWx]

GFS looks to be a little further south with it's track.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS actually has a pretty good stinger CCB for SE MA.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

RGEM came in less amped/crazy....it's still a pretty solid storm but not that wild solution it had at 12z

Definitely looks cooler and offers up more snow in SE mass.

[Damage In Tolland]

After that GFS discussion..why are people looking at it? Mind blowing 

[CT Rain]

GFS actually has a pretty good stinger CCB for SE MA.

 

It certainly does. Looks really impressive on the GFS. 

[CoastalWx]

See I think any outages are east where temps are borderline. 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like a snowy Saturday evening on the back end for EMA across the suite.

 

 

Scott, what are you thinking for our neck of the woods? Seems like we're kinda on the border of things.

 

Definitely a nice parting gift too as Will Said.

 

Bryan, real tough. Could see 2" or 6" LOL. Early guess..maybe 2-4.  However RGEM and GFS argue more.