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Possible Weekend Snowstorm, Jan 24 2015

ineedsnow

By ineedsnow,
in New England

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted

Well it is true to a point. It is 6 hrs closer to an event and in theory should have a better idea than its 12z run. However, you still need to ask yourself if it makes sense. In this case, the RGEM surprised me a bit.

 

Isn't the old mantra that these things always have a last minute tick east?

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Arnold214

Arnold214

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Exactly. It has no use in anyone's forecast. There aren't any mets that are basing any aspect of their forecast on it. Or shouldn't be if they are

i look at it simply beacuse its there and to perhaps learn some biases. But with so much information out there and so little time to construct a forecast, i usually wont bog myself down but trying to figure it out. Not until it starts becoming more relaiable and less misleading. Ain't nobody got time for that. But i guess one important point here is to utilize science and knowledge of climo to construct a forecast and don't lock yourself into any one piece of info. The euro comes close tho...but even that chokes every so often.
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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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i look at it simply beacuse its there and to perhaps learn some biases. But with so much information out there and so little time to construct a forecast, i usually wont bog myself down but trying to figure it out. Not until it starts becoming more relaiable and less misleading. Ain't nobody got time for that. But i guess one important point here is to utilize science and knowledge of climo to construct a forecast and don't lock yourself into any one piece of info. The euro comes close tho...but even that chokes every so often.

Very good point and well stated. It's just so frustrating when you see comments about the Gfs worries me or that it is useful to incorporate into a forecast. For years I've argued that very thing on this forum. It only adds confusion when it goes against all other guidance and climo/ science. In the end though.. It's meteorology and not modelology as you said
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Very good point and well stated. It's just so frustrating when you see comments about the Gfs worries me or that it is useful to incorporate into a forecast. For years I've argued that very thing on this forum. It only adds confusion when it goes against all other guidance and climo/ science. In the end though.. It's meteorology and not modelology as you said

 

And that's what we state. You gotta know when to hold and know when to fold. It's not always terrible and can show a trend too. I've been burned by the euro as well, even though more often than not..it's usually better. It's part of the game, but like Mike said...incorporating climo and perhaps some previous similar setups can also help significantly.

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TalcottWx

TalcottWx

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Dead zone. No new model guidance for 2+ hours. I guess you could start looking at 18 hour rap forecasts. But those are about as useful as 84 hour nam forecasts.

I have work tonight. Probably gonna be a 15 person brawl and noone around to break it up cause ill be in the bathroom stall hiding from my bosses checking the overnight guidance."sorry boss the gfs was running"
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Arnold214

Arnold214

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And that's what we state. You gotta know when to hold and know when to fold. It's not always terrible and can show a trend too. I've been burned by the euro as well, even though more often than not..it's usually better. It's part of the game, but like Mike said...incorporating climo and perhaps some previous similar setups can also help significantly.

when it comes to models i compare it to assessing the value of fantasy football players. You may hit big once or twice with coby fleener, but i'd rather take my chances with gronk from week to week. Over time, you win more.
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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

End of the HRRR run looks good for you guys.  Pretty interested in seeing what happens.  This forum comes alive for a SNE snowstorm.  Should be a good one, especially how this year has gone.  Most of you will be able to enjoy good snow cover, too, especially for the upcoming cold pattern.

 

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