HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Guidance continues to show a possible clipper in the region for Tues night into Weds morning Good cold shot comes on its heels. Let's make it happen SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO MON EVENING. TUESDAY... CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY TUE...THEN WILL PROGRESS E DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS. SOME MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND TUE EVENING THOUGH NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUE NIGHT INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF WED. COULD SEE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE S COAST WHERE SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF IS IN PLACE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT DEPENDING UPON WHETHER LOW PRES DOES FOR WHICH MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL. SW WINDS WILL PICK UP EARLY TUE NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AGAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR A TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Guidance continues to show a possible clipper in the region for Tues night into Weds morning Good cold shot comes on its heels. Let's make it happen SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO MON EVENING. TUESDAY... CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS STATES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY TUE...THEN WILL PROGRESS E DURING THE DAY. WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE WITH AREAS OF SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS. SOME MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRES S OF NEW ENGLAND TUE EVENING THOUGH NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS POINT. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TUE NIGHT INTO THE PRE DAWN HOURS OF WED. COULD SEE LOW END ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE S COAST WHERE SOMEWHAT HIGHER QPF IS IN PLACE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS ASPECT DEPENDING UPON WHETHER LOW PRES DOES FOR WHICH MAY ENHANCE SNOWFALL. SW WINDS WILL PICK UP EARLY TUE NIGHT ALONG THE S COAST THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE W-NW AGAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE. COULD SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KT FOR A TIME. What's the realistic range on this? It we can get some redevelopment soon enough, James Nichols might have a grin the size of the Gulf stream. I'm thinking that perhaps western areas would be best served if there were no development as that could be the situation where moisture gets robbed as the energy consolidates to the east. Given the speed of this, though, I think that would not be too likely and a couple of inches might be had by all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 3, 2015 Author Share Posted January 3, 2015 I would def prefer to be SE for this as currently modeled But an inch or two of fluff wouldn't hurt. At this range the track is impossible to pinpoint though Love a good clippah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Track is shifting south and east on most models this morning. EURO is furthest north with surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Good hit for the Cape on gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Track is shifting south and east on most models this morning. EURO is furthest north with surface low. GFS now at 12z isn't that far off from the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The pgfs looks terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 That's a nice track for all of SNE on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The pgfs looks terrible That's a good sign for a region wide snowfall then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Models won't have a decision until 00z Monday runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Guidance today suggests best snow accum with fluff is along the coast north of a PVD-PYM line. Bl issues SE of there for a lot of the meat. Let's see how it plays out but as of today's guidance, a general 2-4 north of that line but perhaps 3-6 in parts of Maine/eastern NH and 1-2 PYM to HYA and an inch or so east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Guidance today suggests best snow accum with fluff is along the coast north of a PVD-PYM line. Bl issues SE of there for a lot of the meat. Let's see how it plays out but as of today's guidance, a general 2-4 north of that line but perhaps 3-6 in parts of Maine/eastern NH and 1-2 PYM to HYA and an inch or so east of there.BL issues seems overblown, nice OES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 This one is pretty easy. 2-4 for all of SNE. Lolli to 5-6 in a spot or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 How was euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 How was euro? Flatter/weaker/south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Good for SNE If euro is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 That trailing s/w's PVA is still trying to create some inverted troughiness as the low escapes east. Not bad for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Good for SNE If euro is south 00z was better for you guys too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Just hoping for some snow before the cold. Couldn't see much of any models today until I get in shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Need to have at least 2" if I'm going below zero.....seeing any hint of a grass blade while below zero would just make me start throwing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 That's a nice ocean induced Ocean State salt nuclei snow for coastal peeps on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 1-2" area wide seems like a decent call. Maybe iso 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Euro looks pretty good for SNE...hopefully the vortmax a little more consolidated as we get closer and then I think there could be a good swath of advisory amounts. The inverted trough idea hanging on for eastern areas is intriguing too...that could add a bit to the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Still seeing that classic SENH SMaine potential copious invt look too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 .10-.25 of fluff is 2-4 for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 1-2" area wide seems like a decent call. Maybe iso 3"double Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 .10-.25 of fluff is 2-4 for everyoneeasily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 In the "what can go wrong" category, the thing to watch for is if this vortmax gets almost completely shredded to the point of the system becaomes mostly just a fews snow showers...we'd lose the better warm air advection to transport moisture into that airmass. The flipe side is if the vortmax trends a bit better, then we could get a more robust clipper/redeveloper with like a 4-6" type snow...but right now, I haven't seen many runs do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 easily Agree but unless we get a further south reflection of the vm cape could have issues in the lowest 1000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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