Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 In the "what can go wrong" category, the thing to watch for is if this vortmax gets almost completely shredded to the point of the system becaomes mostly just a fews snow showers...we'd lose the better warm air advection to transport moisture into that airmass. The flipe side is if the vortmax trends a bit better, then we could get a more robust clipper/redeveloper with like a 4-6" type snow...but right now, I haven't seen many runs do this. what is showing the first scenario.. Anything? Seems like splitting the difference makes the most sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Euro has a tad of a Norlun look to it- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I hope this clipper can give us solid snow cover So long as the delivery of this cold is more DUE north than the usual NW direction, we should actually see below zero temps just outside the immediate city. (assuming current modeled temps don't warm next day or so) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 what is showing the first scenario.. Anything? Seems like splitting the difference makes the most sense Yeah the GGEM and NAM show the first scenario...obviously I wouldn't side with those models at this range, but the solutions they show are not implausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The GFS ensembles are still largely north of the Op and now north of the euro....the NAM though came south at 12Z and knowing its usual bias at this range I'm thinking the Euro track is fairly close to what this will do...the Euro tends to be dry so the fact its dropping even .16 or so on NYC may be a positive sign for SNE people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 In the "what can go wrong" category, the thing to watch for is if this vortmax gets almost completely shredded to the point of the system becaomes mostly just a fews snow showers...we'd lose the better warm air advection to transport moisture into that airmass. The flipe side is if the vortmax trends a bit better, then we could get a more robust clipper/redeveloper with like a 4-6" type snow...but right now, I haven't seen many runs do this. I think that is a legit concern. This could become glorified snow showers if it gets shredded pretty good. Right now I think the safe play is an inch or two. Could be more, could be less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 EC ensembles looked about as good as they have with this. Develops at a nice clip south of us and swings NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Have a sneaking gut on this one that most folks are left with a nice full, after Thanksgiving feeling. Reeks of an over performer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The old and new GFS continue to crush the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The old and new GFS continue to crush the clipper. Yeah it's more like the NAM and GGEM solution of compressing it before it can really advect good moisture into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 The old and new GFS continue to crush the clipper.You worried with Euro Ens so nice? I'm not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 You worried with Euro Ens so nice? I'm not It's still pretty dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Yeah that run kind of illustrates how this can end up a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 You worried with Euro Ens so nice? I'm not They aren't that nice. It wouldn't take much for this to really become a non event outside of some snow showers. Also, the gfs tends to handle these types of systems well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 It's still pretty dry.Right now folks should be thinking .10-.25 or 2-4. Anything more would be gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 They aren't that nice. It wouldn't take much for this to really become a non event outside of some snow showers. Also, the gfs tends to handle these types of systems well No to all that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I don't think the GFS is known to handle these well, but right now..you can't toss either set. Just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 No to all thatWell believe what you want. When the most bullish model is advertising about a quarter of an inch or LE or less, there are limitations and concerns.No solution is a lock at this point, but you can't just toss the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 I don't think the GFS is known to handle these well, but right now..you can't toss either set. Just have to see. Oh my bad. I thought I saw someone post they tend to handle these types well. Either way, lots of time left for something less or something more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2015 Share Posted January 3, 2015 Oh my bad. I thought I saw someone post they tend to handle these types well. Either way, lots of time left for something less or something more Well the argument is about the nrn stream etc. Sometimes it is right, but it's real early to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 From the Upton AFD: TUE/TUE NIGHT...CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THEPOTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. NO P-TYPE ISSUES ARE EXPECTEDAND SHOULD BE SNOW FOR THE DURATION OF THE EVENT WITH HIGHS AT ORBELOW FREEZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Taunton thinks Cape and Islands gets 2-4" with ocean enhancement, no blockbuster here like the previous runs of the GFS showed several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Taunton thinks Cape and Islands gets 2-4" with ocean enhancement, no blockbuster here like the previous runs of the GFS showed several days ago.A clipper will never be a blockbuster. I suspect the models will look paltry heading into this event and come around as we near the day of the storm. I just hope for that track to the south of us we should be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well see what it looks like tonight. My fear is that it does end up rather shredded and this is a whole lot of nothing. This has a pretty low ceiling regardless. Just hoping to cover the grass for the arctic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 A clipper will never be a blockbuster. I suspect the models will look paltry heading into this event and come around as we near the day of the storm. I just hope for that track to the south of us we should be golden. oh man,lots of examples of Alberta Clippers blowing up not this one but not uncommon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 oh man,lots of examples of Alberta Clippers blowing up not this one but not uncommon Several come to mind, the February 25th 1999 clipper and secondary ocean storm, and the January 22, 23rd 2005 Blizzard, both clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Feb 1999 was not a clipper. That was actually a retro storm. Anyway, nam looked a lot healthier at 00z vs previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Several come to mind, the February 25th 1999 clipper and secondary ocean storm, and the January 22, 23rd 2005 Blizzard, both clippers. 2/6/78. That and 2005 were miller b redevelopers though. So I'm not sure they are purely clippers though 78 started that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Feb 1999 was not a clipper. That was actually a retro storm. Anyway, nam looked a lot healthier at 00z vs previous runs. Yeah--pretty decent for the southern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yeah--pretty decent for the southern areas. 00z Nam would be a nice little event. I'd take it to keep some white on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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