WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 What's funny is, that a poster a couple days ago from down in Delaware or Maryland asked somebody...I think Scott, if the clipper had a chance to move south towards them?? At that time, we were just hoping the Clipper wouldn't go North of SNE. Scott replied there was a very low chance that it could get that far south to affect the Delmarva area. Which IMO, was a great answer for what we were seein on Guidance on Friday. Low and behold, it's heading that way. And we lose yet again. It's finding all ways not to snow this year in SNE so far. Disappointing trend for us...yet again. Sometimes an area just can't break out of that set up, I sure hope this isn't one of those years where we have storms go north and south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 LOL, yep I did. Never say never, but I thought the chance was low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 No sign of James today. ...I think he finally snapped and plunged into the gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 LOL, yep I did. Never say never, but I thought the chance was low. And I agreed with you 100% when you told that poster that, because I thought the chance was even lower lol!! How disappointing for all of us in SNE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Toast. I will refrain from starting threads this season. Bad juju Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 No sign of James today. ...I think he finally snapped and plunged into the gulf stream. LMAO...!! Poor James. I like that guy. But this Clipper is looking very likely to Disappoint most of us in SNE. Although, if anybody does a lil better, it could be James out on the Cape...he might get a trace, and the rest of us see 5-6 flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Euro looks even more compressed than 00z...this is turning into a PHL/BWI clipper. Only a dusting for most on the Euro...perhaps a inch or so down near the Cape and S coast of RI. Looks more like mood snows that will sublimate away fairly quickly. I can't see more than an inch even down here, and I think we'll be very hard pressed to get more than a coating. For consistencies sake I'd be hesitant to say just snow flurries or showers with little or no accumulation but that appears to be the best forecast at this time. This will likely be one of the frequent dustings we've had down here. Snowing often for this early in the year down here, just not amounting to much each time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 LOL You're right Wxwatcher007 we did get two inches yesterday. But it seems to be pulling teeth so far up here this year, to get an inch of snow to materialize. It's not a good sign when most every system breaks against your area. And the clipper is doing it yet again. I am appreciative that we saw the snow yesterday...so I guess that's a positive point like you pointed out. Enjoy whatever you get down that way my friend...your flag carrying seems to have Paid Off lol :-). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The gfs looks like it at least makes a late attempt for something on the cape anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Track is doing what I thought a couple of days ago, even more south to be honest than what I was thinking, I would not be surprised to see it ultimately bump a bit north though...I find with these clippers we sometimes see an overcorrection south in the 2-3 day range and then they end up 50 or so miles north of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I once saw Dr. Lance Bozart out of Suny/Albany do a fantastic presentation at a conference entitled, "Little Critters That Bite" It was a case study of a 10" powder bomb that took place along the Pike and SE zones. I actually remember the event in question... snowing like a mother f'er on west winds!! I may not be getting this paraphrase exact as memory fades, but the gist was a 30 or so vort max moved S of New England. That type of trajectory normally enhances mid level frontogenics ...~ 1 deg and 1/2 of a deg latitude polarward of the jet max translation. With frigid air in place enhancing the hell outta ratios, .3" of unexpected QPF went on to like 10" at 22::1. I remember him demoing a very strong elevated frontogenic signature causing strong UVV along the Pike. The guy was entertaining. His tempo was quick. His tenor was energetic, occasionally sneaking self-aware quips that were Meteorological effacing. He got numerous robust chuckle out of the audience while he flipped through over-head projector images of older Difax charts. Pretty sure this situation smacks of that... though I would never forecast such an event, just saying... you got to be real careful with these mid level wind maxes passing near-by S like that. I think NCEP is probably raising eyebrows at the cup of coffee, azz on the edge of the desk, "hey did you see this" talks... "...GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST... IN ADDITION TO LAKES EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EASTERLY LEES OF LAKES ERIE..ONTARIO AND SUPERIOR...THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSS THE MIDWEST ON DAY 2...MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST...." The take away is that we don't have to have ideal set ups to cash in... Sometimes event delivery is what happens while in wait for the next modeled eye-candy... There was another one very similar to that, that took place some years later in 2004... Near the tail end of that cold snap that year. There was a little critter that set up a distinct frontogenic meso band right along the Pike and Metro West. I was working down on Comm. Ave, across the street from B.U. at the time, and I remember the less than 1/4 mi vis amid the partly sunny with flurries we still had up on the point and click, painted over with rush job WS warnings. - nyuk nyuk. Also, that CANOGAPIAN model that was fused out of dog schit hoping alchemy would create a "GGEM" of a model has a healthy Norlun look out of this thing. Kind of makes me wonder if Lance is just backing into another explanation for Norluns.. hm. Fascinating... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I expect snow to be OTG this week and will not be surprised if things evolved better with the clipper. Going to be a fun week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I expect snow to be OTG this week and will not be surprised if things evolved better with the clipper. Going to be a fun week I am currently doing forecasts for the Upper Midwest with it for tomorrow and the one thing I am seeing so far is the Euro is out to lunch on the QPF...the NAM and RGEM seem the best, no surprise since the high res models tend to handle these better. I would be concerned if tomorrow those 2 models once inside 36 hours are bone dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z NAM showing no improvement and is still shifting south this run vs last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Someone shut the lights out on this one, avert your eyes it just keeps getting worse at 0z....smoking cirrus with heavy virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Although the gfs still provides a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 00z NAM gives us 1-2" of snow mainly OES contributed. Then the 00z GFS gives us 1". EURO came in better with the clipper and surface trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 EURO ensembles are favorable for some snow tomorrow late morning into early afternoon associated with the redevelopment of the clipper south of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Models showing potential for snow squalls today across SNE, while a clipper brings snow to SNE tomorrow and an arctic front brings squalls into SNE Wednesday while OES develops in southwest low level flow along the South Coast Thursday night into Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 5, 2015 Author Share Posted January 5, 2015 I'm thinking all of these "events" will total less than the 2" I received Sat night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Heavy squalls later today, , light snow tomorrow, squalls Wed.. single digit highs Thurs..light snow Fri..not a terrible week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Hello all ; in this type of pattern we have had in December.. Any snow we get now is welcome ..do I expect major snow this week no ..but. .I do see light at the end of the tunnel. IMO ...I hope by end of Jan or early Feb ..there will be a classic I95 special. Which would make most very happy. Time will ..tell .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Heavy squalls later today, , light snow tomorrow, squalls Wed.. single digit highs Thurs..light snow Fri..not a terrible week. Terd polishing I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 Terd polishing I see. The ground will be snow-covered and that's all anyone really cares about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The ground will be snow-covered and that's all anyone really cares about We'll see who gets snow cover today. A couple of folks (aside from Pete who will undoubtedly do so) may snag something. But most of us will not. 29.4/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 We'll see who gets snow cover today. A couple of folks (aside from Pete who will undoubtedly do so) may snag something. But most of us will not. 29.4/16 Everyone pike south will tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 The ground will be snow-covered and that's all anyone really cares about That coating will do wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS still prints out 2" of snow on Thursday, OES contribution and second wave of energy traverses region. Second vort max is stronger than lead vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 6z GFS prints out 3" of snow on Friday January 9th 2015. OES from southwest winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 5, 2015 Share Posted January 5, 2015 GFS still prints out 2" of snow on Thursday, OES contribution and second wave of energy traverses region. Second vort max is stronger than lead vort max. 6z GFS prints out 3" of snow on Friday January 9th 2015. OES from southwest winds. Is this on your black and white or color printer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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