Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 2/6/78. That and 2005 were miller b redevelopers though. So I'm not sure they are purely clippers though 78 started that way. clippers that bomb are Miller B right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 clippers that bomb are Miller B right? Well northern streamers redeveloping are so many are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yes clippers that redevelop off the East Coast are miller B snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Through 48 hours the models have a healthy disturbance going through the flow of the eastern US trough, then once it exits the New England or NJ coastline it shreads to pieces? Come on that's suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Through 48 hours the models have a healthy disturbance going through the flow of the eastern US trough, then once it exits the New England or NJ coastline it shreads to pieces? Come on that's suspect.that happens all the time, respect the Appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Through 48 hours the models have a healthy disturbance going through the flow of the eastern US trough, then once it exits the New England or NJ coastline it shreads to pieces? Come on that's suspect.That is within the envelope of possible solutions. Its been meh-ish for several runs now.Will mentioned earlier, could just get shredded by the mountains. Totally plausible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Yeah the 00z GFS shreads apart the shortwave vort max once again once it leaves Chicago area. I think the models should begin to hold onto that energy more so as we head to within 48 hours of the event itself, therefore a sharper shortwave seems more probable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Plus mountains don't shred a 500mb vort max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The GFS parallel model run is further southeast with the surface cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Well northern streamers redeveloping are so many are. The original definition of a Miller B is a storm that has an OH Valley/Apps track that redevelops off the coast. This can include clippers but it's certianly not exclusive to them. The original Miller paper from 1946: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0469%281946%29003%3C0031%3ACITACR%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Plus mountains don't shred a 500mb vort max.except they do shred air flow. If I remember my classes right, this shows how this highly buoyant unstable air mass becomes stable and for lack of a better term shredded as it crosses the Appalachian chain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This winter finds yet another way to manufacture boring. I'm sure Tip will find it fascinating, but its getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 This winter finds yet another way to manufacture boring. I'm sure Tip will find it fascinating, but its getting old.Yeah it blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I think the fun will begin with the clipper and end with the bang the GFS has had for about 6 consecutive runs, yesterday and today. But before that behemoth of a storm, there is about three storms in between that and the clipper, that could end up saving our winter season snowfall wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 James, the only thing that can be saved with that abomination of a clipper is face, if you give it up. Clipper gets clipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Clippers can over achieve, and this one could very well achieve such an honor, I won't give up until its obvious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Why is the clipper being canceled all of the sudden? I mean, as long as you aren't expecting a warning criteria storm, there's some interest in this doing something. It might be 1-2" but perhaps it can be more of an advisory event if things go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ok, walk that plank. Anyway, looks like 6" on the week will not happen....2.5" tonight, and expect 1-2" at most from the James' flipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Why is the clipper being canceled all of the sudden? I mean, as long as you aren't expecting a warning criteria storm, there's some interest in this doing something. It might be 1-2" but perhaps it can be more of an advisory event if things go right. I am in, 2-4 seems doable. Like the Euro Ens look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I was hoping for 2-4".....but looks like 1-2" should do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Why is the clipper being canceled all of the sudden? I mean, as long as you aren't expecting a warning criteria storm, there's some interest in this doing something. It might be 1-2" but perhaps it can be more of an advisory event if things go right. The GFS is always dry as a bone with these things, the NAM has support from other high RES models on its QPF, albeit we are not in great range for them yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Deciphering between 1-2 ans 2-4 at this point seems like mostly guesswork. We are probably talking like 0.08" of QPF difference between the two in a fluff event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ok, 1-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ok, 1-4".rocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Ok, 1-4". Hell, go T-4, lol. I could see it as low as a trace...or even 4"+. It will just depend on how well the vortmax stays consolidated. If it does, it's the type of systme that SNE over-achieves in so often. If it gets sheared too much, then it's just another deep fly out on a fastball down the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 UKMET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 00z GGEM while still 150 miles too far to the east with the surface low, its closer to the coastline then the 12z run. Trends are important to look for in an event like this as a few miles can mean the difference between 3+ inches or 1" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Hell, go T-4, lol. I could see it as low as a trace...or even 4"+. It will just depend on how well the vortmax stays consolidated. If it does, it's the type of systme that SNE over-achieves in so often. If it gets sheared too much, then it's just another deep fly out on a fastball down the middle. more like a weak ground ball to second because we roll over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Snowgoose where does it go from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Snowgoose where does it go from there?Gulf Stream? Sorry couldn't resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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