Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looking at omega and moisture profiles for LAF, it lines up fairly well in the DGZ, and the DGZ is deep as has been talked about (even a little better on the GFS with its farther south track/slightly colder thermal profiles). Assuming things stay relatively steady, 20:1 seems like a good starting point here. Usually don't feel comfortable going higher than that but it could happen in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Wasn't the wave sampled already by the RAOB network in Alaska for the 12z runs today (before it went back over water)? If so, that sampling certainly didn't lead to the improvements some of us want... Sampling of the wave isnt terribly relevant until it shears out. Prior to that hard-to-model part of the wave's life cycle, sampling can only help so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Forecast sounding for the QC at 03z tomorrow evening from the NAM. This is at the time snow would be ripping. Look at how insanely deep that DGZ is. Pretty much from the surface up to around 550mb. Any mesoscale banding is gonna provide for insane snow rates for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Updated HPC forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 15z SREF looks like it will still be good for the northern crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Updated HPC forecasts A pretty good prediction, although the 12z run would argue for another southward adjustment... It's looking like may get your first 6"+ storm since 2011 from this though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 15z SREF looks like it will still be good for the northern crew. Just looked at that as well. I would of guessed a further south shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks like 18z NAM may baby step south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks like 18z NAM may baby step south. still has nasty southern cutoff http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015010418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045 you go from 7-8 inches to nothing in few miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks like 18z NAM may baby step south. It did a smidge and weaker at the sfc but it's wetter in the main band and for here as well compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 15z SREF looks like it will still be good for the northern crew. laggard, south is the easy call here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z vs 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 Looks like 18z NAM may baby step south. Small enough of a shift that it could be noise, but that noise could make a huge difference at IND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 still has nasty southern cutoff http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015010418&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045 you go from 7-8 inches to nothing in few miles. southern cutoffs are often sharp with clippers, it's a typical appearance. We will be north of the best action but should still see a nice snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 NWS Wilmington Ohio in discussion of WSW I-70 corridor. We evaluate in 6-12hrs before issuing WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I will be making my first call after tomorrows 18Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 4, 2015 Author Share Posted January 4, 2015 I'll go first call of 4.2" here. Not confident to go anything higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I will be making my first call after tomorrows 18Z runs. classic chicago storm move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 LOT just extended their WSW south to include IROQUOIS-FORD-BENTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 LOT just expanded the Watch south to include Ford, Iroqouis, and Benton counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 I will be making my first call after tomorrows 18Z runs. Gonna nowcast, eh? I going with 5.7" for FWA and 6.8" for MBY (due to being south of the airport and my slant stick) as a first call. Chuckin' deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 The south trend is not my friend, but I am liking my chances at 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 IWX just put up a Watch. EDIT: IND as well for the northern tier (LAF, OKK, MIE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 IWX just put up a Watch. And now IND for the northern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 from Indy FOCUS DURING THE SHORT TERM IS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW AND FOLLOWINGBITTER COLD THIS WEEK.WHILE SOME SLIGHT SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE MODELS HASOCCURRED...APPEARS THAT GFS AND GEM REMAIN TOO FAR SOUTH/OPERATIONAL GFS IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF ITS ENSEMBLE SPREAD/WITH CONSENSUS OF REMAINING MODELS FURTHER NORTH. EVEN GFS HAS ITSBEST FORCING NORTH.SYNOPTIC FORCING IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON MOST MODELS AND MESOSCALEFORCING WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR BANDING...WITH PLACEMENT OFBANDS A SIGNIFICANT DRIVER OF FINAL TOTALS. BEST FRONTOGENTICALFORCING AT THIS TIME REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT BETWEENBANDING POTENTIAL AND HIGH SNOWFALL RATIOS OWING TO BOTH TYPICALBEHAVIOR OF CLIPPERS...AND MESOSCALE CONCERNS SUCH AS BANDINGPOTENTIAL AND SUBSTANTIALLY DEEP DENDRITIC ZONE AT TIMES MONDAYNIGHT...APPEARS THAT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SNOWFALL APPROACHING 6INCHES IN THE FAR NORTH. WILL CARRY A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MONDAYNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN 1-2 TIERS OF COUNTIES AS THIS ONLY EXPRESSES50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE...AND ALSO WOULD PREFER TO NOT GO FROM NOTHINGTO A WARNING IF SOUTHWARD TRENDS OCCUR TONIGHT AS WELL. WILL VERYLIKELY NEED AT LEAST AN ADVISORY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWOTHIRDS EVENTUALLY...BUT A BIT EARLY FOR THAT AS IT IS A THIRD TOFOURTH PERIOD EVENT AND UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AN ISSUE. N ALL...AT THIS TIME EXPECTING 1-3 SOUTH METRO INDY SOUTH TOBLOOMINGTON/COLUMBUS...3-5 INDY NORTH TOCRAWFORDSVILLE/TIPTON/ANDERSON...AND 4-6 FROM THERE NORTH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 wobble north tomorrow.... ORD 5.5 MBY/LOT 6.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 These northern stream clipper type systems drive me crazy, always seem to trend south. Just a few model runs ago it was showing 3-6" here on the northern fringe but I'm guessing a couple mood flakes is all now (would rather see you guys south get some snow anyways since I just got almost 8"). It seems like I need to see one of these storms tracking across lake superior at 72hrs out to be able to get in the actual snow after the south trend lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 18z 12km nam snowfall http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015010418&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=226 18z 4km nam snowfall http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam4km®ion=us&pkg=asnow&runtime=2015010418&fh=54&xpos=0&ypos=226 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 ILN put up a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 4, 2015 Share Posted January 4, 2015 And now IND for the northern counties. It took them a while to finally buy into the southernly track. The SREF plumes have been showing 6ish for some time now. A for amount to near 8 inches and an outlier at 10 inches. Finally a good storm. I just hope the track is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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