dendrite Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 "Right where we want it" Which part is right where you want it? The track? The evolution? the storm depiction? I know that they all likely mean that the storm track is right where you want it. But honestly the only part of this storm that is presently right where I want it is the storm evolution. Models are showing a very mature strengthening cyclone with plenty of moisture being captured by the associated upper level vortmax. The storm track is far from desired. If the storm was going to be right where I want it I would like the storm to be passing 50 miles southeast of ACK. And for that track to hold for the next infinity model runs. Just nit-picking I suppose. Southern stream system >>> north d-prog/dtObviously that doesnt always come to fruition, but I'll take my chances. Verbatim...no, we don't want that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 If it helps us to get the plain cold, I'd be willing to sacrifice a whiff south at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Its a whiff for the second run in a row on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Its a whiff for the second run in a row on the Euro. Welcome to an hour ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Its a whiff for the second run in a row on the Euro. And by a greater margin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Welcome to an hour ago. As you stated an hour ago, the ensembles will be telling. The OP is just doin' what it does I can only sneak a peek at the models after the kids are gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Man. You guys fell for Tips trap? Lol. The dude has no clue of the pattern and was just out trolling Meh, you just don't like the truth once forced to eat it; you've got nothing left to spin. And so you take subversive pot-shots because in reality, ...your in OCD without a fix. Ha. Seriously, this Euro run has the first system completely missing, and the Xmass storm is a cutting rainer. What part of the "pattern" are you referring? I stated fact, your a loon ...and you don't like the facts. eat it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Yea, Kev, you called that one, all right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 you can already tell through our 120 that the Euro ensemble mean is going to be north of the operational. through the same time period, the control run also looks north of the operational but a bit south of the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 you can already tell through our 120 that the Euro ensemble mean is going to be north of the operational. through the same time period, the control run also looks north of the operational but a bit south of the mean. Passes SE of the BM, But a lot of spread back to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 yes passes se of the BM but definitely further north than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 yes passes se of the BM but definitely further north than the operational. It trended se from the 00z mean, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ensemble mean is pretty good for this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 "Right where we want it" Which part is right where you want it? The track? The evolution? the storm depiction? I know that they all likely mean that the storm track is right where you want it. But honestly the only part of this storm that is presently right where I want it is the storm evolution. Models are showing a very mature strengthening cyclone with plenty of moisture being captured by the associated upper level vortmax. The storm track is far from desired. If the storm was going to be right where I want it I would like the storm to be passing 50 miles southeast of ACK. And for that track to hold for the next infinity model runs. Just nit-picking I suppose. Yes, I think factoring evolution and bias, that's what people mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I actually can't access the previous run but it is probably a bit southeast but there is still a decent number of members further north west and the 12z mean and control run would be a decent hit especially south of the pike. The usually unreliable weatherbell snow map algorithms are showing a 6 to 12 inch snow fall on the control run for much of the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 It trended se from the 00z mean, correct? I would say if anything it trended NW of 00z mean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ensemble mean is pretty good for this far out. I don't know if I've seen the individual members clustered like that at this range before. That's a really tight cluster w/ a high amount of Ens members about 150 miles off of Ocean City MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 the mean is NW of 00z. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Meh, you just don't like the truth once forced to eat it; you've got nothing left to spin. And so you take subversive pot-shots because in reality, ...your in OCD without a fix. Ha. Seriously, this Euro run has the first system completely missing, and the Xmass storm is a cutting rainer. What part of the "pattern" are you referring? I stated fact, your a loon ...and you don't like the facts. eat it Its one run . You don't look at ensembles. You are struggling. Look deeper than an op run. You know better I thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I would say if anything it trended NW of 00z mean... this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 at this stage, I would be very happy with where the ensemble mean is with the clustering of low positions off the coast of Maryland and New Jersey. taking a further eastward trajectory off of the coast rather than northeastward may rip off some interior and especially central and northern New England areas but would also help hold the cold air in place at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I know where my money lies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I know where my money lies. lol, As do I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looking at the clustering of the individual members(If you have WxBell, click 50 members stamps and then low locations), the general agreement on a track off the MD and NJ coastlines is one of the strongest I've ever seen for a 5.5-6 day prog. 0z had a pretty strong cluster as well, but this has got to be 75% of the members within a hundred miles of each other, which for a D6 prog, is pretty incredible consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 mid level low is closed off over Ohio on the EPS mean...granted it was on the op as well...but Id think that should tell you something about the room this has to come NW still...plenty of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 I know where my money lies. Looks like I'm highest on PoP for that time period. Surprising given the ensembles (GEFS and Euro EPS both) are bullish on the NW side of things. GEFS mean is well SE, but the spread is huge to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Ok, thanks. I can't see the ens.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 15, 2014 Author Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looks like I'm highest on PoP for that time period. Surprising given the ensembles (GEFS and Euro EPS both) are bullish on the NW side of things. GEFS mean is well SE, but the spread is huge to the NW. You don't say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 15, 2014 Share Posted December 15, 2014 Looking at the clustering of the individual members(If you have WxBell, click 50 members stamps and then low locations), the general agreement on a track off the MD and NJ coastlines is one of the strongest I've ever seen for a 5.5-6 day prog. 0z had a pretty strong cluster as well, but this has got to be 75% of the members within a hundred miles of each other, which for a D6 prog, is pretty incredible consensus.seen this movie a hundred times and the ending never changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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