NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Now suddenly this event may be bigger than Monday, wtf is going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lte5000 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS looks like 1-2" for mdt, am I reading that correctly? FWIW here's the GFS snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS looks like 1-2" for mdt, am I reading that correctly? GFS more like 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 GFS more like 3-6.Thank you, I'm never able to read the model well. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Thank you, I'm never able to read the model well. :/ yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 HERE WE GO! Winter Weather Advisory Statement as of 3:58 AM EST on January 23, 2015 ... Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday... The National Weather Service in State College has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for snow... which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday. * Locations... the southeast half of Pennsylvania. * Hazard types... snow. * Accumulations... 2 to 4 inches. * Timing... snow will overspread the region late this evening. The snow will taper off late Saturday morning. The snow could potentially change to rain or freezing rain early Saturday morning from around Harrisburg south and eastward. * Impacts... roads will become snow covered and slippery tonight into early Saturday. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Hazardous winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Use caution if traveling. For the latest weather information... go to weather.Gov/statecollege or monitor NOAA Weather Radio. Report snow or ice accumulation to the National Weather Service State College by sending an email to [email protected]... posting to the NWS State College facebook Page... or tweet @nwsstatecollege with the hashtag c... T... p... W... x. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 a pleasant surprise... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like Mondays clipper event has moved a little south on us.It can stop anytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 How about it pawatch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Saturdays event is looking better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Some thoughts I have to watch for today... Looking at some local 12z soundings it appears as if there is a warm layer just above the surface that is warmer than what the 0z NAM/GFS had for 12z this morning. While at the moment it could mean absolutely nothing later on, I am curious to see if this warm layer will factor into more mixing occurring than we would like to see. With that layer also currently on the drier side, we could also have it wet bulb back below freezing and eliminate this concern or with the direction the moisture will be pulled in from the south and east the far south east could have much more mixing and a bust where there are some higher forecast totals currently. Glad I don't have to make any official forecasts for the York/Lancaster and east areas on this one (11z RAP even showing rain for onset of storm). While we do have some concern regarding mixing... there is a ridiculous amount of moisture being pulled in off of the Gulf that if this system can tap into a little more than what models have I would imagine the precip shield being a little larger and quite possibly over performing in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If this warm layer can get the hell out of here, Cashtown's likely looking at warning criteria overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Low of 19. Dew went down to 16 which was lower than I expected Mag-- Id love to see a snowmap from you and I always appreciate your thoughts and knowledge you bring to this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice to see tonight's event probably won't be a total whiff up this way. Sounds like south central PA might be the winners over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 If this warm layer can get the hell out of here, Cashtown's likely looking at warning criteria overnight. Yeah, I might be in a good spot for this one. Between this event, the clipper sun night into Monday, and the cold to follow I'm rather excited. Add a big event in February for everyone and I'd call this winter successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Winter is moving in the right direction now at least. Looks like a busy weekend.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Low of 19. Dew went down to 16 which was lower than I expected Mag-- Id love to see a snowmap from you and I always appreciate your thoughts and knowledge you bring to this forum. Thank you very much, I'll see if I can get one together later this afternoon (might be hitting the slopes this evening). We're getting close to HRRR/RAP time with getting a good gauge on this precip shield and how it's going to handle. The early looks on both are pretty solid so far... they kinda look like the RGEM placement wise and don't seem too fringy for our north central folks. One thing i'll be concerned about in your neck of the woods and especially down in I-83Blizzard's area is the potential for mixing. CTP mentions mixing or changeover likely from MDT southward. I suspect the damage will be done by the point it does much mixing anyways, the main event for us is going to be the initial big shield of precip that will lift up over the area. This storm doesn't look to loiter around and hang any deform over us... and thus will hold the top end down probably to a 4-6" maybe scattered 7" kind of event. If I get a map made I will be probably be applying low snow ratios (8 or 10:1) in the Lower Sus Valley and 12:1 elsewhere. 18 hr RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 well 12z NAM sure is wet for southeast PA... temps hugging freezing mark though for Susq Valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 It would seem as if the second half of winter is shaping up the way many predicted. And where are all the morons cancelling this nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 Thank you very much, I'll see if I can get one together later this afternoon (might be hitting the slopes this evening). We're getting close to HRRR/RAP time with getting a good gauge on this precip shield and how it's going to handle. The early looks on both are pretty solid so far... they kinda look like the RGEM placement wise and don't seem too fringy for our north central folks. One thing i'll be concerned about in your neck of the woods and especially down in I-83Blizzard's area is the potential for mixing. CTP mentions mixing or changeover likely from MDT southward. I suspect the damage will be done by the point it does much mixing anyways, the main event for us is going to be the initial big shield of precip that will lift up over the area. This storm doesn't look to loiter around and hang any deform over us... and thus will hold the top end down probably to a 4-6" maybe scattered 7" kind of event. If I get a map made I will be probably be applying low snow ratios (8 or 10:1) in the Lower Sus Valley and 12:1 elsewhere. 18 hr RAP cref_sfc_f18.png not sure how reliable and how much we can believe it right now at the end of its range but both RAP/HRRR showing profiles above freezing right now but both are quite wet for what is moving into PA so fun to track but so frustrating that a difference of 1-2C around here tonight may be what separates 4-6" and <1"... Hope I am wrong but I have this strange feeling that you and the state college folks could wind up with more snow than some of us further south and east! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 1-2" seems like a decent forecast for UNV. There will likely be an area of weak 700 mb frontogenesis over north central PA which,] coupled with the enhanced moisture, should produce some light precip. Snow growth looks less than ideal as the best lift associated with the frontogenetic circulation (when the profile is mostly saturated; after 06z) will be around the -8C level. Farther south and east, the mesoscale lift will be stronger but precipitation type will become more of an issue. The 00z Euro is colder, keeping MDT all snow while the 06z GFS warms temperatures around 850mb to just above freezing by 06z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This Sunday storm is bumming me out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 1-2" seems like a decent forecast for UNV. There will likely be an area of weak 700 mb frontogenesis over north central PA which,] coupled with the enhanced moisture, should produce some light precip. Snow growth looks less than ideal as the best lift associated with the frontogenetic circulation (when the profile is mostly saturated; after 06z) will be around the -8C level. Farther south and east, the mesoscale lift will be stronger but precipitation type will become more of an issue. The 00z Euro is colder, keeping MDT all snow while the 06z GFS warms temperatures around 850mb to just above freezing by 06z Saturday. I'm thinking favorable banding will push us to 2-4" here in State College. Based on the storms I've seen like this in the past (my admittedly limited experience), decent banding usually sets up near, but not at, the northern edge of the precipitation shield. Pretty much right where UNV is projected to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 12z NAM is significant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Someone is going to get a nice thumping of snow. Just wish I knew it was going to be me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 im think us in the Harrisburg area could see 2- 4" storms Warning just dropped for Cumberland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm thinking favorable banding will push us to 2-4" here in State College. Based on the storms I've seen like this in the past (my admittedly limited experience), decent banding usually sets up near, but not at, the northern edge of the precipitation shield. Pretty much right where UNV is projected to be.Well the 12z NAM prolongs the 700 mb frontogenesis over northern PA, probably a result of the better ageos. circulation in the jet exit region. The hires 4 km nest gives us close to .5" here. We'll have to see if the rest of the guidance follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 CTP goes to Winter Storm Warning for everything other than Adams/York/Lancaster: https://nwschat.weather.gov/vtec/#2015-O-NEW-KCTP-WS-W-0001/DMX-N0Q-0 EDIT: 3" - 5" for Adams/York/Lancaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Well the 12z NAM prolongs the 700 mb frontogenesis over northern PA, probably a result of the better ageos. circulation in the jet exit region. The hires 4 km nest gives us close to .5" here. We'll have to see if the rest of the guidance follows.Edit: .5" QPF, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 I just think 4-6" is too high right now for Harrisburg and southeast and hope they didn't make the jump to warnings based just on 12z NAM output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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