MillvilleWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Shade under 2" here at Millersville. Looks beautiful out. Great winter day. Time to turn to the attention to the weekend system. Looks pretty good for the LSV. Could be a tight cutoff to the NW for some here in the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 3" in New Salem...wonderful wet snow that made looks like a Thomas Kinkade painting. Gonna have to give it another 18-24 hours before the Frid-Sat event can be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 2.25 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z NAM is not your friend. Strung out and warm. The great lakes low is about 2 - 3 mb weaker, but the entire storm comes at the LSV in pieces. Maybe a half decent burst of precip in the mid afternoon, otherwise it's nothing to write home about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 00z NAM is not your friend. Strung out and warm. The great lakes low is about 2 - 3 mb weaker, but the entire storm comes at the LSV in pieces. Maybe a half decent burst of precip in the mid afternoon, otherwise it's nothing to write home about. That's more like the NAM.. if it isn't dumping 4-6 feet on someone it's a strung out mess like that haha. Despite the new GFS being unknown with it's tendencies with coastals or even just rolling with it's past tendency of being too far SE, I don't really like the fact that it has largely backed off today with getting much into our region or really PA as a whole after being in pretty good agreement with the Euro. I guess we'll see if that continues shortly with 0z... and later on with the rest of the suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS OTS...lol, truth be told, I'd rather have that than the fringe game. It's like better to lose badly than to lose a heartbreaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 But but but its the NAM....... .5 inches here. and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 GFS OTS...lol, truth be told, I'd rather have that than the fringe game. It's like better to lose badly than to lose a heartbreaker. That juiced up clipper right behind it might end up delivering a better storm Sun/Mon for the entire commonwealth anyways... dang. And while I've been able to see how we can get this southern stream storm up to where it affects most of us, I really don't like the setup for it outside of the Sus Valley and maybe southern tier, and even there it's tentative IMO. There just seems like too much influence from the northern branch that kinda presses the storm (e.g the great lakes low). We'll see how things go the rest of tonight and tomorrow. If we do end up having to punt this storm, I'm not worried.. it looks like an active and eventually quite cold pattern could be evolving as we end out January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Well, the UK has something okay/decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 That juiced up clipper right behind it might end up delivering a better storm Sun/Mon for the entire commonwealth anyways... dang. And while I've been able to see how we can get this southern stream storm up to where it affects most of us, I really don't like the setup for it outside of the Sus Valley and maybe southern tier, and even there it's tentative IMO. There just seems like too much influence from the northern branch that kinda presses the storm (e.g the great lakes low). We'll see how things go the rest of tonight and tomorrow. If we do end up having to punt this storm, I'm not worried.. it looks like an active and eventually quite cold pattern could be evolving as we end out January. Screw it...I will take a clipper train that slowly piles up the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Even a 4" - 6" storm would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Measured 1.8" last night. Went out this morning to remeasure 1.5" probably due to compaction. Will see what today's runs bring. But probably looking ahead to Sunday/Monday. 15.6" for the year 2014/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like 2.5-3" is what the state college area ended up with per the PNS. Another couple inches with the clipper late this weekend and we'll have a decent run of having the ground covered at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Looks like 2.5-3" is what the state college area ended up with per the PNS. Another couple inches with the clipper late this weekend and we'll have a decent run of having the ground covered at least. Measured 2.5" in Bellefonte...seems pretty uniform across the county. 06z GFS goes a little crazy with the Sunday night-Monday clipper and drops like 10" here...yeah right. As CTP mentioned though, it does look stronger than yesterday's clipper and should have more moisture to work with. Low track also looks really nice for us, so it certainly could end up being a high-end clipper event...3-6" instead of the usual 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 .5 inches here, with a little light snow falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Wife reporting SN- back home in New Salem. Looking at the 12z IAD (Dulles) and APG (Aberdeen Proving Ground) soundings, it's no clear why the fog was so thick. Pretty impressive low level inversion with a fresh supply of low level moisture. 12z IAD sounding: 12z APG sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Light snow in Mount Joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Those runs last night and this morning are nothing short of dejecting if you wanted a big storm. I mentioned the prospects of 4-8" were a good call yesterday by the look of the morning runs, but also emphasized the setup was less than ideal for a lock. The lack of a high pressure setup to our north combined with a low scooting across the northern Great Lakes is always worrisome. In order to combat such a setup, you need basically the ultimate thread the needle. Yesterday morning had it and now today it does not. The NW precip shield of the storm looks less enthusiastic looking for many here and the mid levels are not exactly screaming for a prolific snow event. It's been a rough go for those that have been at least eyeing the potential. I'm not giving a final call till tomorrow, but I can assure you by the looks of it, 4-8" for the LSV probably will not be it. On the bright side, down the road (I know this has been said numerous times) it looks to be getting more into a favorable period for cold and southern wave systems. The long range depiction shows a displaced PV to the southeast in Quebec with really cold air settling in over the eastern half of the CONUS. The GFS and Euro both show very cold anomalies infultrating the region for a period mid next week and even another shot by next weekend. The STJ looks to remain active with a few pulses ejecting across the south with NS energy close by. It's not likely all will provide a storm , but the ingredients are there. I will not go into specifics of model runs because they will change numerous times before we come close to those periods. I'll say to watch out for anything in early February at this point. Winter might finally be arriving, but will it deliver the snow or not remains to be seen. The look for colder conditions looks more favorable at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 I'm definitely turning my attention toward early next week's event now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 12z GFS looks good for Monday...if we can get the clipper to blow up a little faster we'd be golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Those runs last night and this morning are nothing short of dejecting if you wanted a big storm. I mentioned the prospects of 4-8" were a good call yesterday by the look of the morning runs, but also emphasized the setup was less than ideal for a lock. The lack of a high pressure setup to our north combined with a low scooting across the northern Great Lakes is always worrisome. In order to combat such a setup, you need basically the ultimate thread the needle. Yesterday morning had it and now today it does not. The NW precip shield of the storm looks less enthusiastic looking for many here and the mid levels are not exactly screaming for a prolific snow event. It's been a rough go for those that have been at least eyeing the potential. I'm not giving a final call till tomorrow, but I can assure you by the looks of it, 4-8" for the LSV probably will not be it. On the bright side, down the road (I know this has been said numerous times) it looks to be getting more into a favorable period for cold and southern wave systems. The long range depiction shows a displaced PV to the southeast in Quebec with really cold air settling in over the eastern half of the CONUS. The GFS and Euro both show very cold anomalies infultrating the region for a period mid next week and even another shot by next weekend. The STJ looks to remain active with a few pulses ejecting across the south with NS energy close by. It's not likely all will provide a storm , but the ingredients are there. I will not go into specifics of model runs because they will change numerous times before we come close to those periods. I'll say to watch out for anything in early February at this point. Winter might finally be arriving, but will it deliver the snow or not remains to be seen. The look for colder conditions looks more favorable at this juncture. Unless you can get some serious blocking downstream, it will be very unlikely to produce any widespread, significant snow. Wes Junker has posted a chart (can't find it on my computer offhand) of the number of 6"+ snowstorms with a La Nada pattern AND +NAO. The stats show that <20% of storms occur during such a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Unless you can get some serious blocking downstream, it will be very unlikely to produce any widespread, significant snow. Wes Junker has posted a chart (can't find it on my computer offhand) of the number of 6"+ snowstorms with a La Nada pattern AND +NAO. The stats show that <20% of storms occur during such a pattern.I understand. That point was also given by Kocin and Ucellini in their NE Snowstorm book as well. I didn't imply there was a good chance, but just a better shot than the recent pattern we've been given. I mentioned at the end of my post that getting snow in the upcoming pattern remains to be seen. The progressive flow pattern throughout the winter still remains in play and will continue to impact the general forecast. The main difference is the supply of colder air into the eastern US helps with any upcoming system the next few weeks. The cold will be transient, but the shots of cold look to be the best of the winter season so far. I'd rather take my chances working with that setup than what we are dealing with this weekend for example. We'll see how it goes I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Things have been kinda unraveling within 36 hours of events outside of the clipper, so let's hope we can end that soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Things have been kinda unraveling within 36 hours of events outside of the clipper, so let's hope we can end that soon. How's the Euro looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Not sure man, Monday looks pretty good on other models but Sat is a lost cause up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 22, 2015 Author Share Posted January 22, 2015 How's the Euro looking? actually fairly similar to GFS for Saturday but still not much more than dusting - 2" for most of us... but then has clipper system for Monday much weaker with marginal temps and not as much moisture... a ton of gulf moisture available that would have been nice to be able to tap into for Saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Yea, nobody should be buying into either system atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 actually fairly similar to GFS for Saturday but still not much more than dusting - 2" for most of us... but then has clipper system for Monday much weaker with marginal temps and not as much moisture... a ton of gulf moisture available that would have been nice to be able to tap into for Saturday... Thanks for the update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 actually fairly similar to GFS for Saturday but still not much more than dusting - 2" for most of us... but then has clipper system for Monday much weaker with marginal temps and not as much moisture... a ton of gulf moisture available that would have been nice to be able to tap into for Saturday... Huh? The Sunday night/Monday clipper is much stronger and more moist on the 12z Euro than it was on the 00z Euro. It's got a swath over >0.35" amounts for most of north-central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 22, 2015 Share Posted January 22, 2015 Huh? The Sunday night/Monday clipper is much stronger and more moist on the 12z Euro than it was on the 00z Euro. It's got a swath over >0.35" amounts for most of north-central PA. Could you elaborate on the 12Z Euro for the LSV for both Saturday and Monday? DJR might have been referring to just the LSV region with that post, but I certainly am not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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