AllWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice map AllWeather. I'll take a 3" - 5"...you expecting mix into Spring Grove - New Salem area? Sounds about right. You'll definitely run into mixing down that way, but 3-6" with the thump and some compacting should get you realistically into the 3-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Sounds about right. You'll definitely run into mixing down that way, but 3-6" with the thump and some compacting should get you realistically into the 3-5" range. Solid...might be some power issues in our area we seem to not do so well with the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I'm happy with our map....Pretty good agreement there. Capture.JPG See, I ask where you are and you return. Brilliant! Nice map, hoping it comes to fruition! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 New SREF plumes and even the new Euro indicate that some severe mixing issues could cut down snow amounts considerably SE of KMDT. Geez. What a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 New SREF plumes and even the new Euro indicate that some severe mixing issues could cut down snow amounts considerably SE of KMDT. Geez. What a trend. I mean, it's 38 degrees, so yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I mean, it's 38 degrees, so yeah. With a substantial dewpoint depression (and probability for temps to drop once precip moves in). 38 by itself doesn't mean a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Too bad we don't have even a 1022 high over Quebec...this would've been a slam dunk for a 5" - 9" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 23, 2015 Author Share Posted January 23, 2015 New SREF plumes and even the new Euro indicate that some severe mixing issues could cut down snow amounts considerably SE of KMDT. Geez. What a trend. HRRR and RAP have been showing big time mixing issues all day SE of MDT. This is why I couldn't understand why NWS jumped totals up significantly after 9z SREF and 12z NAM before rest of 12z came in because of them showing higher precip even though there were signs that there is a layer that will be roughly a degree on either side of freezing mark in profile. Will be interesting to see how everything plays out tonight but I am still concerned about mixing killing forecast totals. Once again I am glad I am not the one that has to issue the forecast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just FYI if anyone is interested... I have shifted my "floater" HRRR grid to State College, PA for the upcoming event. Let me know if you guys have any questions. (yes I am shamelessly plugging my website ) http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just FYI if anyone is interested... I have shifted my "floater" HRRR grid to State College, PA for the upcoming event. Let me know if you guys have any questions. (yes I am shamelessly plugging my website ) Nice! They all miss ya in the SE forum BTW (UNC Asheville, right?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Just FYI if anyone is interested... I have shifted my "floater" HRRR grid to State College, PA for the upcoming event. Let me know if you guys have any questions. (yes I am shamelessly plugging my website ) http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ppapin/hrrr.php#flt Hey thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Great site Phil! Hopefully there will be more floating it to UNV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 NWS point-and-click for me (Carlisle) has removed mention of mixing completely from my forecast. Calling for 4-9" Did 18Z runs come in colder than before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 32/26 Had a high of 36 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 34/27 here at Millersville. After talking with Eric Horst, he's using Rt. 30 as the dividing line for the southern tier. 1-3" south of it and 2-5" north. He also likes the best axis of snow similar to that of CTP, but he had his totals around 3-6" out there with some spots exceeding 6". The combination of no high to the north and a southern fetch aloft, which models tend to underestimate, gives him pause about whether the southern areas get anything substantial. He did mention that it wouldn't take too big of a shift for things to change for a greater snow potential for everyone, but it's not the likely scenario. I personally like 4-7" out around the 81 corridor to northern Dauphin, Perry, Cumberland and Lebanon counties. 3-6" for northern Adams, northern York and Lancaster and southern Dauphin. 2-4" for the cities of York, Lancaster and Gettysburg and points south to the MD line. I think sleet in the lower areas will be more common with a warm nose aloft. A decrease in rates will help that warm layer sneak in overnight for the 2-4" area and even parts of the 3-6" area. It's a fine line for this system. I agree with Joe. If we had just a measly 1022 high over Quebec, this would be an easy warning criteria event. Instead, we are at the mercy of dynamic cooling which I'm not the biggest fan of after being on the wrong side of the coin a few times. A storm is a storm though. At least we have something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 my guess will be 4 to 6 in wilkes barre. my reasoning is that the dog and cats were sleeping together. End of the world type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Thinking for york & lancaster a nice moderate snow before mixing with sleet and rain. 2" to 4" max. Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Nice! They all miss ya in the SE forum BTW (UNC Asheville, right?). Yep... 2011 alum! I was posting on the southeast forum last night and they are always so nice when I drop by to make a few comments Hey thanks Great site Phil! Hopefully there will be more floating it to UNV Thanks guys ... as long as there is interesting weather somewhere, that's where I'll try to put the floater grid. I'd make grids to every section of the US but I don't have the computing resources, so I've got a grid setup for Albany (where I'm living currently), for the WxChallenge location (which is in Phoenix, AZ for next week), and then for wherever there is interesting weather. Its pretty easy for me to move it around now that I've updated the code on my website to take any ASOS station in the US to center the grid on. In the future I want to make some other useful products, so if you guys have any requests or ideas for additional products I am all ears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 I have my lucky shirt on so I should be good for at least 4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 34/27 here at Millersville. After talking with Eric Horst, he's using Rt. 30 as the dividing line for the southern tier. 1-3" south of it and 2-5" north. He also likes the best axis of snow similar to that of CTP, but he had his totals around 3-6" out there with some spots exceeding 6". The combination of no high to the north and a southern fetch aloft, which models tend to underestimate, gives him pause about whether the southern areas get anything substantial. He did mention that it wouldn't take too big of a shift for things to change for a greater snow potential for everyone, but it's not the likely scenario. I personally like 4-7" out around the 81 corridor to northern Dauphin, Perry, Cumberland and Lebanon counties. 3-6" for northern Adams, northern York and Lancaster and southern Dauphin. 2-4" for the cities of York, Lancaster and Gettysburg and points south to the MD line. I think sleet in the lower areas will be more common with a warm nose aloft. A decrease in rates will help that warm layer sneak in overnight for the 2-4" area and even parts of the 3-6" area. It's a fine line for this system. I agree with Joe. If we had just a measly 1022 high over Quebec, this would be an easy warning criteria event. Instead, we are at the mercy of dynamic cooling which I'm not the biggest fan of after being on the wrong side of the coin a few times. A storm is a storm though. At least we have something to track. This seems very reasonable. I'm right on route 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Yep... 2011 alum! I was posting on the southeast forum last night and they are always so nice when I drop by to make a few comments Thanks guys ... as long as there is interesting weather somewhere, that's where I'll try to put the floater grid. I'd make grids to every section of the US but I don't have the computing resources, so I've got a grid setup for Albany (where I'm living currently), for the WxChallenge location (which is in Phoenix, AZ for next week), and then for wherever there is interesting weather. Its pretty easy for me to move it around now that I've updated the code on my website to take any ASOS station in the US to center the grid on. In the future I want to make some other useful products, so if you guys have any requests or ideas for additional products I am all ears! Good stuff, frontogenesis + RH plots would be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Unrelated but damn the next cold snap looks deep...Tuesday night forecast low is down to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Speaking of dynamic cooling Some here may remember the Surprise Christmas snow sometime in the 2000's. Was suppose to be a mainly rain event ending with little snow. The rained changed to heavy snow mid morning and received in LSV around 5 inches of heavy wet snow and temps were in upper 30's at the change over. Not saying this is the same but temps dropped by like 5 degrees when it changed over to heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like the latest 18z GFS run has the most negative omega values higher up in the atmosphere between 03 and 09z for UNV. If that verifies, we might actually get some pretty good snow growth as this lift is right near the -15C level. It seems like the biggest change in guidance since this morning is a more coherent jet streak is forecast, where much of central PA will be in the rising branch of the left exit region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Looks like the latest 18z GFS run has the most negative omega values higher up in the atmosphere between 03 and 09z for UNV. If that verifies, we might actually get some pretty good snow growth as this lift is right near the -15C level. Screenshot from 2015-01-23 18:12:00.png It seems like the biggest change in guidance since this morning is a more coherent jet streak is forecast, where much of central PA will be in the rising branch of the left exit region. Nice find Heavy. Thanks. Not a bad look for most of the state judging by that jet setup. Bring it on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 This seems very reasonable. I'm right on route 30. I think you'll do fine. You've been the benefactor of a few of our events recently in terms of snow totals and setup. Have to go with persistence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 23, 2015 Share Posted January 23, 2015 Snow being reported in NMD and sticking out towards the 81 corridor. Temps falling and even snowing as far south as Columbia, MD. Sleet in a lot of areas as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Nothing here yet just across the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 Snow being reported in NMD and sticking out towards the 81 corridor. Temps falling and even snowing as far south as Columbia, MD. Sleet in a lot of areas as well. Was wondering if anyone near the mason dixon had anything to report yet. Radar looks decent down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 24, 2015 Author Share Posted January 24, 2015 So far through Virginia many places started out as snow but then changed to rain... Really wonder how far north that continues... Don't forget to report p-types to mPing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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