MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 New GFS coming in has more QPF and could be more indicative of a stripe of solid advisory snows (3-5ish) running through the middle of the state within a sizable area of a couple inches regionwide in the manner that CTP currently has their snow map. 0z NAM was unimpressed with a pretty light and diffuse area of snowfall. Also that late week southern stream system has been sneaking further up the eastern seaboard the last few model runs. Still pretty far away from impacting any portion of PA but may have to continue to watch. Otherwise i'm glad I stuck with what I said several days ago about us having to watch the northern stream for any snowfall around here this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Big shift in the 0z Euro, turns that late week southern stream wave into a major coastal storm. 988 Low near VA beach fading to just outside of the benchmark and deepening into the 970s. Extreme southern Sus Valley near the PA/MD line (e.g. I-83Blizzard) sees a few tenths that is likely snow. Rest of the region little or no precip for now, but was pretty close to being a big storm for at least the southern parts of C-PA. 0z GFS and Canadian were further NW with this tonight as well, but not to the Euro's extent. Timeframe of this storm being around here is still in the 108-120hr realm.. so plenty of time for a further shift up or a return to being pressed out harmlessly. I'm not biting on this coming all the way up like that attm...but consider my attention had with this new Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well clipper starting to look bleh in a matter of a couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Well clipper starting to look bleh in a matter of a couple runs. And we all knew you'd be the first to chime in. 00z GFS looked healthy, a nice stripe of >0.25" for most of CPA, a few spots at 0.50" showing up. 06z backed off a bit, 12z should be informative. I like the setup...thinking AOO & UNV see a nice 2-3". JST might be more like 3-5", IPT, MDT, LNS all 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All I said was 6z backed off, has anyone viewed the Euro, hearing it was a DC special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All I said was 6z backed off, has anyone viewed the Euro, hearing it was a DC special. I know, I'm just messing around. 06z was not pretty for us for sure, but withholding judgment until at least this afternoon. I've seen clippers trend both good and bad within 12 hours too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 All I said was 6z backed off, has anyone viewed the Euro, hearing it was a DC special. One model run (on off hours mind you) does not a trend make..... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 And we all knew you'd be the first to chime in. 00z GFS looked healthy, a nice stripe of >0.25" for most of CPA, a few spots at 0.50" showing up. 06z backed off a bit, 12z should be informative. I like the setup...thinking AOO & UNV see a nice 2-3". JST might be more like 3-5", IPT, MDT, LNS all 1-3". I like those numbers. Agree 100% regardless of what an off run of the GFS shows. I'll see if 12z throws any more screwballs before I think about changing up. Last nights runs were something else. This weekend has my attention, but first things first, got to get through this clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It's a nice day for the gubernatorial inauguration. Can't ask for much better in mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Re: 1/23-24 event...better to be on the outside looking in at this point of the model cycle! Plenty of time to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 One model run (on off hours mind you) does not a trend make..... The north+west trend has been nice, though. Would like to see a bit more. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z NAM is wetter again. Also, it's been ignored, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a narrow strip of 1-2 inches today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z NAM is wetter again. Also, it's been ignored, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a narrow strip of 1-2 inches today. Yeah, the radar in OH looks relatively promising for at least some snow in the air and a coating... and someone could get lucky later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Heck with it, the low path looks favorable and no real big push of cold, dry air to fight I'm going bullish on the clipper. Not really looking at precip. maps just a feel with history and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Wmsptwx I don't know that you need to go bullish (as this winter has been more like the running of the Bulls with the fast flow). I just think that the amount of volatility in each model run to date has been nothing short of mind boggling. Hopefully we are transitioning into a more stable regime (despite the NAO's disinterest in coming to the show). Here's to better times...hopefully starting tomorrow. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Yea nut, I just think it's a favorable clipper set up for us and that we all have a good shot at getting nice little event. Not bullish on advisory amounts, but confident we all get 1 or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 And while we are talking trends ....its really nice to see some continuity regarding g this weekend and beyond. Not that the outcome is certain but they sure look perty. Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z GFS still as a nice area of ~0.25" for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Gfs actually bulked its digits up a good bit from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 12z GFS still as a nice area of ~0.25" for tomorrow. Not for everyone. E PA is actually mostly <0.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 PSU, gfs is probably killing precip. to quickly, has a bad habit of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Incoming. 0.5 mi visibility at KPIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Nice to see CTP anticipating better than normal ratios in true CPA tomorrow. After missing the two biggest "events" so far this winters 2-4" would be great to see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 the snow has started here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Man, coolwx.com GFS has UNV at .35 tmrw and IPT at .08, Seems like quite a dropoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 The band to our west looks short-lived, but it looks like it means business. Still sticking with a narrow corridor of 1-2 inches from today's clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 It looks like northeastern pa is good for a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 A couple of flakes drifting down in Bellefonte now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 A couple tiny flakes were already making it down when I was outside a minute ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 20, 2015 Share Posted January 20, 2015 Of course the binghamton nws changes with every model run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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