pawatch Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Happy GFS Upgrade day! Now we will have to figure out its bias and tendencies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 anyone hear the loud sounds reported since the end of December? The sounds reported on January 1 in the Wyoming Valley area, and I've seen it even reported all over the eastern half the country since the end of December. While I have not heard the sounds myself, I've heard many reports from coworkers, friends and family. Some say it's a result of the meteors crashing into the atmosphere, others are saying that it is earthquakes – I do not see any correlation on the earthquake.gov page. One meteorologist reported that it was possibly a jet being pushed past the speed of sound by getting into the jet stream. The sound heard in the Wyoming Valley area,possibly had a smoke trail associated with it. The conspiracy theorists say it's aliens.Or is the result of fracking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 anyone hear the loud sounds reported since the end of December? The sounds reported on January 1 in the Wyoming Valley area, and I've seen it even reported all over the eastern half the country since the end of December. While I have not heard the sounds myself, I've heard many reports from coworkers, friends and family. Some say it's a result of the meteors crashing into the atmosphere, others are saying that it is earthquakes – I do not see any correlation on the earthquake.gov page. One meteorologist reported that it was possibly a jet being pushed past the speed of sound by getting into the jet stream. The sound heard in the Wyoming Valley area,possibly had a smoke trail associated with it. The conspiracy theorists say it's aliens.Or is the result of fracking There are doctors for that stuff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looks like DE, MD getting the snow today. Maybe even south western Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 anyone hear the loud sounds reported since the end of December? The sounds reported on January 1 in the Wyoming Valley area, and I've seen it even reported all over the eastern half the country since the end of December. While I have not heard the sounds myself, I've heard many reports from coworkers, friends and family. Some say it's a result of the meteors crashing into the atmosphere, others are saying that it is earthquakes – I do not see any correlation on the earthquake.gov page. One meteorologist reported that it was possibly a jet being pushed past the speed of sound by getting into the jet stream. The sound heard in the Wyoming Valley area,possibly had a smoke trail associated with it. The conspiracy theorists say it's aliens.Or is the result of fracking Where in Wyoming Valley area are they being reported? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Pixie dust falling Mount Joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Light snow in Elizabethtown Lancaster county. Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Happy GFS Upgrade day! Wow! I had no idea the upgrade was going to extend the 3-hour forecast segments from 192 (8 days) to 240 (10 days). The first run (12z) just finished and has the new additional maps. Right away you can see the important difference it makes going out 2 more days in 3 hour increments vs. the jump to 12 hours at 192. Interestingly, it is showing a very nice snowstorm for all of us between day 9 and 10. I think the important takeaway looks to be the return to a sizable trough in the east during the second half of the forecast cycle with -20's visiting us again. One last note, at hour 384 look up north of the Canadian maritimes and look at the 948 low. That's like the lowest pressure I think I've ever seen on these maps. Of course I know this is only one run and it will probably never verify, but if a low that strong ended up in that position I think that would only strengthen the eastern US trough even further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 anyone hear the loud sounds reported since the end of December? The sounds reported on January 1 in the Wyoming Valley area, and I've seen it even reported all over the eastern half the country since the end of December. While I have not heard the sounds myself, I've heard many reports from coworkers, friends and family. Some say it's a result of the meteors crashing into the atmosphere, others are saying that it is earthquakes – I do not see any correlation on the earthquake.gov page. One meteorologist reported that it was possibly a jet being pushed past the speed of sound by getting into the jet stream. The sound heard in the Wyoming Valley area,possibly had a smoke trail associated with it. The conspiracy theorists say it's aliens.Or is the result of fracking I've been off work for the past month recovering from kidney surgery and I can attest to the fact that I've heard nothing out of the ordinary during that time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I see MAG reading, any chance to end the dull weather? I'd take a nice rainstorm even to clean up the salt residue lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 14, 2015 Author Share Posted January 14, 2015 I see MAG reading, any chance to end the dull weather? I'd take a nice rainstorm even to clean up the salt residue lol. Euro has system that moves just off coast on Sunday on GFS more inland and turns it into a slow moving storm system most likely for eastern Canada. At first glance it looks like our best chance for precip for the next week and likely would be rain for eastern pa and a light and brief wintry mix to light snow for central pa closer to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Where in Wyoming Valley area are they being reported? Dallas, Tunkhannock, Nanticoke, https://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID=2266&category=Environment (I don't speak for the site but they have links to local reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Is this the trough your talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Wow over 15 hours without a post on here and it's winter. 20 degrees here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 State College is pretty bullish about the Sunday/Monday event, at least here in my area... Sunday A chance of snow before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 State College is pretty bullish about the Sunday/Monday event, at least here in my area... Sunday A chance of snow before 11am, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Sunday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 60%. They are, this event has kinda snuck up the last couple days as a more amplified coastal development. The 0z Euro was the furthest one west and most amped, delivering the mix to snow type scenario to mainly the eastern half of Penn that CTP talks about. Other models have the system but it winds way too late and northeast to do much. We'll have to see how modeling shakes out the next couple days. I feel the pattern is probably too progressive for this potential system to really amp up and deliver much deep into PA, but we don't have the players on the field quite yet to get a good assessment of what may happen. I do think there's a chance at a light snowfall anyways with the passage of the robust shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 Dallas, Tunkhannock, Nanticoke, https://www.earthfiles.com/news.php?ID=2266&category=Environment (I don't speak for the site but they have links to local reports. I know there is growing interest of shooting canisters of tannerite around the state so maybe that could be what is going on. There were similar explosion like reports around lancaster area and that is what it turned out to be. It is legal if done properly but using a large enough quantity can cause the ground to shake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Did anyone see this one yet? Not a bad parody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I lol'd hard on that one Voyager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Long range pattern on the ensembles look better than what we have seen previously this winter starting mid/late next week. Looks like a few storm chances to look at. It's nice to actually see something popping up in the future. Today was actually a nice winter day. Sun finally breaking out here in Lancaster county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Long range pattern on the ensembles look better than what we have seen previously this winter starting mid/late next week. Looks like a few storm chances to look at. It's nice to actually see something popping up in the future. Today was actually a nice winter day. Sun finally breaking out here in Lancaster county. Lets hope so...This winter is boooooring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 To me, the GFS looks like Mondays event heads East. And then maybe we get a clipper on Wednesday. And it also looks like the storm I was watching 21-23 is heading OTS Seems like we keep having these storms pop up in the long range only to disappear. Anybody else have some thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Anybody else have some thoughts? I do, but I'm sure you don't want to hear them... Anyway, it seems like the GFS shows widely varying scenarios from run to run. One run seems to be cold and the next one seems to be mild. Take the 6z for example. On the Meteostar site is shows mid 60's at the end of the run where the 18z showed single digit temps and the 0z showed seasonal. I know that's fantasy range, but it's all over the place right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 16, 2015 Author Share Posted January 16, 2015 To me, the GFS looks like Mondays event heads East. And then maybe we get a clipper on Wednesday. And it also looks like the storm I was watching 21-23 is heading OTS Seems like we keep having these storms pop up in the long range only to disappear. Anybody else have some thoughts? The lack of blocking is why the storms that appear in long range have been disappearing. In the longer range events recently the storms have been too slow allowing them to amplify and when we get closer the progressive pattern has them weaker and moving through quicker. The GFS has actually been handling these quite well because there is no southern/northern stream phasing involved that the model really struggles with. TWC actually posted some maps and forecasts yesterday with snowfall amounts and made it look like Sunday storm was going to have a significant impact across the whole state. Euro is now trending away from the development it had a few days ago and is becoming somewhat similar to what the GFS has had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 A couple thoughts.... I know this has been beaten to death, but off hour runs (ie. 6/18z), seemingly do not show the continuity ....especially in unstable/developing patterns (to my eyes). I view them like the NAM...inside 72hrs. anything beyond is better looked at with the ensembles for continuities sake, (which even now, they are still showing enough wavering to throw up a caution flag). It sounds like at least in the medium term the AO will be - with the possibility of a transient/pseudo neut/neg NAO which should at least help for the next week or 2. I like many here, want to see nothing but wall to wall storms/cold, but without sustained blocking to our north am fearful were going to have to deal with periods of opportunity (like the one we are headed into). I've not seen much discussion about it, but with the "Nino faltering, i am concerned at what downstream implications that may have into what was appearing to be a backloaded winter with typical Nino climo and blocking for Feb/Mar., but it still seems that the opportunity for blocking and the NAO trending to neut/neg, are on the table and will favor our area for better opportunities. Anyone care to answer my riddles about the ENSO? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 A couple thoughts.... I know this has been beaten to death, but off hour runs (ie. 6/18z), seemingly do not show the continuity ....especially in unstable/developing patterns (to my eyes). I view them like the NAM...inside 72hrs. anything beyond is better looked at with the ensembles for continuities sake, (which even now, they are still showing enough wavering to throw up a caution flag). It sounds like at least in the medium term the AO will be - with the possibility of a transient/pseudo neut/neg NAO which should at least help for the next week or 2. I like many here, want to see nothing but wall to wall storms/cold, but without sustained blocking to our north am fearful were going to have to deal with periods of opportunity (like the one we are headed into). I've not seen much discussion about it, but with the "Nino faltering, i am concerned at what downstream implications that may have into what was appearing to be a backloaded winter with typical Nino climo and blocking for Feb/Mar., but it still seems that the opportunity for blocking and the NAO trending to neut/neg, are on the table and will favor our area for better opportunities. Anyone care to answer my riddles about the ENSO? Nut You basically hit the nail on the head when it comes to the lack of blocking. The fact we haven't had any in this pattern is the reason why we can't get any storms. This is an ultra progressive pattern where the northern stream seems to be moving at lightning pace. Notice we actually have gotten fairly nice HP's to our north only to be in and out in less than 36 hours? You can thank the lack of a negative AO/NAO combo there. Also, for the past 10 days, we've had a +EPO which doesn't help at all, so we're left with pretty much a fast moving flow aloft and we would have to thread the ultimate needle in order to have anything substantial. Next week starts to look like a better window of opportunity with an AO signal heading negative along with the EPO as well as a NAO signal going neutral to negative. This gives us more of an opportunity, but once again, does it all come together?If you take a look at the 500mb pattern, you notice down the road there are numerous pieces of energy in the northern stream that swing down and pass by the region. The models are going to have a rough time trying to handle all that energy. If one of those pieces is more amplified, the whole run changes and that's why we see the GFS flip flopping so much as Voyager pointed out. Same goes with the European. The best thing to do right now is take it 4-5 days at a time when it comes to short/mid term forecasts and look at the 500mb on the ensembles. The OP's are going to keep going all over the place and any level below 500mb is going to be different after 96 hours on each run. Always start at 500mb in the LR and use the ensembles. They don't call it the level of non-divergence for nothing. As far as ENSO, I can't really say anything because I haven't looked at it in a few days and I'm not anywhere near an expert on its contribution to the overall pattern this winter. I only know the basics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 You basically hit the nail on the head when it comes to the lack of blocking. The fact we haven't had any in this pattern is the reason why we can't get any storms. This is an ultra progressive pattern where the northern stream seems to be moving at lightning pace. Notice we actually have gotten fairly nice HP's to our north only to be in and out in less than 36 hours? You can thank the lack of a negative AO/NAO combo there. Also, for the past 10 days, we've had a +EPO which doesn't help at all, so we're left with pretty much a fast moving flow aloft and we would have to thread the ultimate needle in order to have anything substantial. Next week starts to look like a better window of opportunity with an AO signal heading negative along with the EPO as well as a NAO signal going neutral to negative. This gives us more of an opportunity, but once again, does it all come together? If you take a look at the 500mb pattern, you notice down the road there are numerous pieces of energy in the northern stream that swing down and pass by the region. The models are going to have a rough time trying to handle all that energy. If one of those pieces is more amplified, the whole run changes and that's why we see the GFS flip flopping so much as Voyager pointed out. Same goes with the European. The best thing to do right now is take it 4-5 days at a time when it comes to short/mid term forecasts and look at the 500mb on the ensembles. The OP's are going to keep going all over the place and any level below 500mb is going to be different after 96 hours on each run. Always start at 500mb in the LR and use the ensembles. They don't call it the level of non-divergence for nothing. As far as ENSO, I can't really say anything because I haven't looked at it in a few days and I'm not anywhere near an expert on its contribution to the overall pattern this winter. I only know the basics. I shared pretty much the same thoughts regarding the EPO/AO on a snowmobiling forum yesterday and how they have been hurting our chances of sustained cold/snow and how they are helping to keep the pattern unfavorable, but that a shift in the AO heading - and the PNA + which is a better look, despite the unwaivering +NAO. Despite the uncertainty, is does seem from what I've read that the SSW may have displaced/split the PV enough to offer some opportunity sustained colder periods in Feb/March. Like you I have only a basic understanding of the SSW and while I understand the ENSO and its affects, hearing of the Nino fading and what it does in Feb/March is something I'm not sure to many have discussed as it seemed a lock heading into Dec. thanks for the insight. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The storm is ticking west but not sure how much it will matter...heavier rain probably? :| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 The storm is ticking west but not sure how much it will matter...heavier rain probably? :| I'd still rather be west of it....than east. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2015 Share Posted January 17, 2015 Not bad out for a January day. 29/11 with a light south wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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