pasnownut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Flakes in Elizabethtown. let the games begin....looking forward to the next couple weeks. Been a long time coming. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Measured 1.1" 28f light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 In Carlisle, temp has dropped to 28.0 degrees with moderate snow. Flake size has become a little finer. 0.6" accumulation on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 In Carlisle, temp has dropped to 28.0 degrees with moderate snow. Flake size has become a little finer. 0.6" accumulation on the ground. Very nice. Bring this to Lebanon County we are in a snow hole right now. everything west, south, east of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Every other model is east of that with a thin precip shield...you know, like almost everything big that has come up the past few years. I was thinking the same thing. The last couple of years coastal storms we get fringed or nothing at all almost every time. You would think the trend would break one of these years but for this storm right now it doesn't look like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Very nice. Bring this to Lebanon County we are in a snow hole right now. everything west, south, east of us. I'm pulling for 'ya. Actually, there was a small event earlier in the season where everyone else around me in all directions had a fair amount more. It eventually evens out over time. Temp continues to drop...now down to 27.7F. Closing in an the 1" mark pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I'm pulling for 'ya. Actually, there was a small event earlier in the season where everyone else around me in all directions had a fair amount more. It eventually evens out over time. Temp continues to drop...now down to 27.7F. Closing in an the 1" mark pretty soon. Yep. Good luck. it started here, light fine snow. NWS says 2-4 I think I'll be lucky to see 1" but that is a clipper for you. It is almost like T-Storms where isolated spots will see more than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 .6" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Carlisle is right, winter has a way of evening things out. As for the coastal later this week, I've been staying away. It's not worth getting whipped up about at all. If it comes together on Friday, great. If not, it's a coastal and we know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Maybe half an inch here? Nice returns incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JB is too funny. He is using the NAM at 72 hours out for the weekend storm and how close it is to the coast. He claims this is in line with the ENS ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 28F moderate snow. 1.5" total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JB is too funny. He is using the NAM at 72 hours out for the weekend storm and how close it is to the coast. He claims this is in line with the ENS ensembles. Probably going with the old E-E Rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Update from Carlisle... Intensity have definitely dropped off...now only light snow. I'd estimate the rate at about 0.3"/hr. Temp 28.1. Total accumulation up to 1.3". As always, I am hoping for 2" and think there is about a 50-50 chance. One thing I'm quite certain of is that we will likely not climb above 30 this afternoon as long as there is at least light snow. I'm about to head off to work so there won't be anymore updates from me until this evening. Everyone enjoy. Looks like numerous opportunities for measureable snow over the next 10 days. After the potential coastal it's clipper-fest time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JB is too funny. He is using the NAM at 72 hours out for the weekend storm and how close it is to the coast. He claims this is in line with the ENS ensembles. Wow. It's amazing. Until your post today I actually hadn't thought about JB even once this entire season. (I'm still a fan of his despite how others feel.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 JB is too funny. He is using the NAM at 72 hours out for the weekend storm and how close it is to the coast. He claims this is in line with the ENS ensembles. The NAM being the NAM aside.. it's 12z track isn't really out of line compared to the intermediate models I've seen so far in this 12z suite. The Canadian pretty much follows the same track up through eastern NC to that VA Beach/DelMarVA region and eventually going inside the benchmark. The 72 Hour UKMET has the storm roughly over the OBX at 72hr.. so that may be somewhat to the southeast. The GFS made a shift SE at 6z that continued 12z.. which resulted in even the Sus Valley not even really being impacted. Edit to add: When looking at that overnight Euro ensemble mean that Eskimo posted up above, the 12z NAMs pretty much dead center in that cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Tracks look ok on some, just extent of precip fields aren't very big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Wow. It's amazing. Until your post today I actually hadn't thought about JB even once this entire season. (I'm still a fan of his despite how others feel.) I like JB as well. He always look for snow. It looks like the Canadian and UKIE are west and more significant for C PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 I like JB as well. He always look for snow. It looks like the Canadian and UKIE are west and more significant for C PA. 12z Euro same... but again like others have said don't read too much into it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Its now an official snowstorm in York county. There is a wreck on 83 @ newberrytown. Eta moderate snow in central York co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 European coming in looks like it gets the LSV half decent. Rough glance looks like Harrisburg sees a few tenths, Scranton-WB might sneak a couple tenths, AOO-UNV-IPT corridor on the fringes, York and Lancaster down to I-83Blizzard land looks like a half inch or so QPF. It then goes and absolutely smashes Southern New England holy crap... 972 south of LI at 84 and at least a 968 low at 90 hours due east of Cape Cod.. that's a blizzard verbatim for those folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 MAG what's the deal with a storm only off of ACY giving us such paltry digits? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 European coming in looks like it gets the LSV half decent. Rough glance looks like Harrisburg sees a few tenths, Scranton-WB might sneak a couple tenths, AOO-UNV-IPT corridor on the fringes, York and Lancaster down to I-83Blizzard land looks like a half inch or so QPF. That's it? People were talking major hit into NEPA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 12z Euro same... but again like others have said don't read too much into it yet Yes it does and no never read too much into it this far out. The way it sounded with the Euro we would have a good chance at decent storm not so much a fringe job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 That's it? People were talking major hit into NEPA... I guess it depends on what they define as NEPA, but where your at is just inside of .1-.25" at 78 hours. .25" line does run from about HGR to Port Jervis at that frame. Port Jervis down to Allentown gets hit pretty good I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Easily the best snowstorm this season to date. It's been mod snow for two hours now, roads covering now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 I guess it depends on what they define as NEPA, but where your at is just inside of .1-.25" at 78 hours. .25" line does run from about HGR to Port Jervis at that frame. Port Jervis down to Allentown gets hit pretty good I guess. Can't believe that's the best we can do with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 Just got home from work, small covering on driveway, roads starting to get covered. Hoping for 1.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2015 Author Share Posted January 21, 2015 That's it? People were talking major hit into NEPA... text output not fully loaded yet but has .58 for MDT and .70" for York/Lancaster up to 18z Saturday... but as MAG just posted there is a sharp cutoff to north and to west... without good blocking there just isnt anything to force it on a more northward path than slide northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 21, 2015 Share Posted January 21, 2015 reading in the NY and MA forums that the Euro ticked abt 50 miles west and is a big hit w/ mixing still confined to extreme SE Pa/Md, but that CCB changes everyone back....lots of luv from Mo nature. now we just have 6 more model runs to hold our breaths and we get the goods...sure hope so. If we can pull off another 3-6 or 4-8 on top of today, I'd consider that a win for sure. Hope the western shield blossoms a little more in the coming runs, but nice to see continuity in the model wars. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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