chietanen Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 In my defense the guy that jumped in on me was wayyyy off, said the low was in PA at hr 36 and it was all the way back in Ohio lol... I won't ever do a PBP again lol I wasn't directing that at you. Just past experience with the forum. I still think we should have a banter thread specifically for each larger storm so the complaints and IMBY posts can stay out of the storm discussion thread. Yes they can, and quite spectacularly. As you cleverly said, with some people it goes back to the discussion about the best model being the one that gives the most snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Euro use to nail storms with great accuracy in the past. That is one rather spectacular aspect of these recent bed-wets, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Pamela if you would like to continue our discussion I'm more than happy to but I refuse to waste anymore space In that model thread. Not sure why you took such offence to a post that really wasn't aimed at you in particular but the people that follow your posts up with banter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Step away from the forum and model mayhem ensues. Had a friend tell me his weatherbug app told him 2-5 inches for Morris County. Knew I had to check in and see how close to the cliffs edge everyone is getting. Ice could be a major concern out this way, I'm praying for cold upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Was that English?? Lol jk When is it ever with him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snowfall 2014-15 Winter Through January 31, 2014 / 6:00 PM Islip: 30.6" NWS Upton 23.1" LaGuardia: 21.4" Bridgeport: 19.6" JFK: 17.5" Newark: 16.6" Central Park: 16.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snowfall 2014-15 Winter Through January 31, 2014 / 6:00 PM Islip: 30.6" NWS Upton 23.1" LaGuardia: 21.4" Bridgeport: 19.6" JFK: 17.5" Newark: 16.6" Central Park: 16.5" Thanks for the stats.LI and the nw crew ftw (even though the nw crew isn't on that list) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Coastal on the GGEM for end of next week. A really close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Coastal on the GGEM for end of next week. A really close miss. Haha already on to the next huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 When is it ever with him? Valid point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol @ the epic meltdown right now by animal in the discussion thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 lol @ the epic meltdown right now by animal in the discussion thread.. Come on man, just having some fun. No melt down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The model thread is absolutely horrid right now! All of a sudden the NAM is gospel and NYC and LI are going to have a big rain storm. Come on people. Look at the meteorology not modelology. How did that do for us with the last storm? Watch the wind direction . It means absolutely everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The model thread is absolutely horrid right now! All of a sudden the NAM is gospel and NYC and LI are going to have a big rain storm. Come on people. Look at the meteorology not modelology. How did that do for us with the last storm? Watch the wind direction . It means absolutely everything.agreed ..models are a tool mets should use in their overall forecast ..this forecast is from being sealed.. A slight change can make a huge difference.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 How can people spend 2 days saying the nams the worst model ever and it shouldn't even be looked at, the base they're backyard forcast on its solution lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Snowfall 2014-15 Winter Through January 31, 2014 / 6:00 PM Islip: 30.6" NWS Upton 23.1" LaGuardia: 21.4" Bridgeport: 19.6" JFK: 17.5" Newark: 16.6" Central Park: 16.5" if we get 10-15 more inches of snow for the season ..I'm referring to NYC ..than I'm OK with that every winter can't be 40 plus ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 if we get 10-15 more inches of snow for the season ..I'm referring to NYC ..than I'm OK with that every winter can't be 40 plus ... Yeah give me normal snowfall and below normal temps and I'm happy.... also nam has temps dropping close to 10 degrees by 10 pm Monday...should be fun with all the slush around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Haha already on to the next huh Well, this one is over before it even started, so might as well . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 CYSD storm.......Clear Your Storm Drain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 What are we looking at in the long range? Any storm threats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The model thread is absolutely horrid right now! All of a sudden the NAM is gospel and NYC and LI are going to have a big rain storm. Come on people. Look at the meteorology not modelology. How did that do for us with the last storm? Watch the wind direction . It means absolutely everything. Unfortunately if the low makes it north of NYC's latitude, the wind will shift onshore. Most models have that happening now, not just the NAM. The RGEM is even more horrendous-that would probably leave you with nearly bare ground after the storm. The S/W strengthening and transient confluence make the warmer solutions pretty likely actually. Glad I'm in Texas!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Well, this one is over before it even started, so might as well . . .NYC and coast ..for sure IMO .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Think they should drop those winter storm warnings for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The model thread is absolutely horrid right now! All of a sudden the NAM is gospel and NYC and LI are going to have a big rain storm. Come on people. Look at the meteorology not modelology. How did that do for us with the last storm? Watch the wind direction . It means absolutely everything. Prob 1-3" for you and I, then sleet then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Think they should drop those winter storm warnings for NYC I just got a recorded call from my Town of Oyster Bay supervisor saying that a WSW has been issued for most of the town. I would have thought that the NWS would have pulled the warning by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I just got a recorded call from my Town of Oyster Bay supervisor saying that a WSW has been issued for most of the town. I would have thought that the NWS would have pulled the warning by now. you actually think they are going to pull it before the event begins after the cancelled freezing rain advisory fiasco ? They are going to wait till its obvious after the precip arrives a warning isn't needed then downgrade it to an advisory......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 you actually think they are going to pull it before the event begins after the cancelled freezing rain advisory fiasco ? They are going to wait till its obvious after the precip arrives a warning isn't needed then downgrade it to an advisory......... There could still be 4 inches of snow up on the N shore of Nassau county . Even if it gets to 35 for a few hours back here . ( I am in Laurel Hollow for this storm ) . The ground is frozen and the first few hours of rain could ice things up a bit . ( we just 2 Sundays ago what could happen with light rain over frozen ground ) even with temps 33 - 35 . Then whatever melts after that could be met by a flash freeze on the backside and it could be quick .There could be a 20 degree drop on the backside in 6 hours on Long Island , so all that slush will freeze on the roads . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Prob 1-3" for you and I, then sleet then rain. I agree. Though I think it's closer to 3 then 1 as it will come down heavy overnight before going to sleet around daybreak then freezing rain for an hour or 2 then rain. Back to snow with a coating in the afternoon. The snow pack in wantagh is pretty tuff as it has condensed. I think what falls with this storm is all that really melts and we come out of it with the same amount of snow but a wetter more robust pack with the flash freeze. I highly recommend removing any slush because whatever is left will turn to rock! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 There could still be 4 inches of snow up on the N shore of Nassau county . Even if it gets to 35 for a few hours back here . ( I am in Laurel Hollow for this storm ) . The ground is frozen and the first few hours of rain could ice things up a bit . ( we just 2 Sundays ago what could happen with light rain over frozen ground ) even with temps 33 - 35 . Then whatever melts after that could be met by a flash freeze on the backside and it could be quick .There could be a 20 degree drop on the backside in 6 hours on Long Island , so all that slush will freeze on the roads . I'm thinking easterly winds at 10 to 15mph for about five hours will bring our temperature up to about 35 degrees here. Perhaps the snow on the front end will be heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 The model thread is absolutely horrid right now! All of a sudden the NAM is gospel and NYC and LI are going to have a big rain storm. Come on people. Look at the meteorology not modelology. How did that do for us with the last storm? Watch the wind direction . It means absolutely everything.I agree that the models shouldn't always be followed run to run. Trends are more important. However, the problems with the last storm actually from NOT following almost all of the models and following only a couple.....it goes both ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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