Doorman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 MONDAY PROG enhanced for clarity lock it up....forget the model runs you Oscar Mayer's slow mover http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mhwbg_crop.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9nhwbg_crop.gif The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution. For official information, please refer to NWS products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 EVERYONE SHOULD CALM DOWN THERE IS COLDER GUIDANCE 1 OP RUN DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A FORECAST . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 The storm just had to phase a little quicker =( i can't believe they put that on tv And considering that the Euro never wavered on the eastern sections getting the goods from 120 hrs out. Wasn't the RPM model shown from the "Nemo" storm in February 2013? If so, then if you move the axis of heavy snow about 100 miles east, it actually wasn't far off. As is ofter the case, phases this close to the area can be just a little late for NYC and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 EVERYONE SHOULD CALM DOWN THERE IS COLDER GUIDANCE 1 OP RUN DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A FORECAST . Agreed.... threat is on ALL of them models... just need to figure out track which obviously is not going to happen 5 days out. Another "potential" here which is great.. KEEP THE HITS COMING!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I've always loved all-caps posts telling people to calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I've always loved trying to matter in life and at times I think if I just sit here and act witty someone will think I am cool . Don`t sweat this stuff man , it`s only weather . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Don`t sweat this stuff man , it`s only weather . A bit defensive, are we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 A bit defensive, are we? I just like to swing babe . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 People are arguing about a Sun/Mon storm when last time I checked it's Tuesday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 A bit defensive, are we? He's a bully, but a friendly bully... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 He's a bully, but a friendly bully... Oh come on. I'm easy. BTW ur 1st call on Sat at KNYC was 5 to 8 Good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Oh come on. I'm easy. BTW ur 1st call on Sat at KNYC was 5 to 8 Good call. Yes, but my final call was 2-4. I didn't see much liquid at KNYC, but I totally missed the back end. Thankfully, I don't have to put out forecasts for a living... I feel for those that do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 I've always loved all-caps posts telling people to calm down. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Yes, but my final call was 2-4. I didn't see much liquid at KNYC, but I totally missed the back end. Thankfully, I don't have to put out forecasts for a living... I feel for those that do! I guess the important thing is that the current generation of models let us know that there would be a disruptive winter storm both yesterday and last week. Missing an exact snowfall total isn't the biggest deal in the world when you consider how much models are often off with rainfall amounts throughout the year but no one notices. When I was growing up it was typical for the older models to completely miss snowstorms by forecasting all rain or forecast big snows and nothing happened. So I think people can just have unrealistic expectations of what the technology can do today as far as pinpoint winter storm forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This forum is getting out of control, spring can't get here soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 this looks like a SNOWY set-up for the Metro and without one hug...... --I-- / \ http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/97ep48iwbg_fill.gif?1423003189 http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/spag_f168_nh.html http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/hpcmaxwbg.gif http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/DAY7_MAX_filled.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif I see a better way...than awful PBP--- eight times a day but that's just me dm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 This forum is getting out of control, spring can't get here soon enough. While most things come to life in the spring, this place goes in the other direction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 While most things come to life in the spring, this place goes in the other direction... People are arguing over like a dozen miles regarding the placement of certain features on 100+hr maps. It's getting ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The constant bitching between Yanksfan and ag3 needs to stop...for good. No one cares where the 850c line is 6 days out. Also, I have no idea why people can't get it into their heads that the paid European maps are not supposed to be posted here under any circumstances. Dr. Maue is aware of the issue and will be cracking down on these posters soon. So if you like your WxBell subscription, I would probably stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Season to Date Snowfall 2014-15 / Through 2/3/2015 Worcester: 72.6" Boston: 53.4" Albany 51.9" Providence: 36.0" Islip: 35.7" Hartford: 33.7" Scranton: 33.5" Bridgeport: 30.6" NYC LaGuardia: 27.9" NWS Upton: 27.9" Allentown: 23.0" NYC JFK: 22.0" Newark: 21.2" NYC Central Park: 20.1" Washington Dulles: 10.3" Baltimore BWI: 6.8" Atlantic City: 5.2" Philadelphia: 5.2" Washington National: 3.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Season to Date Snowfall 2014-15 / Through 2/3/2015 Worcester: 72.6" Boston: 53.4" Albany 51.9" Providence: 36.0" Islip: 35.7" Hartford: 33.7" Scranton: 33.5" Bridgeport: 30.6" NYC LaGuardia: 27.9" NWS Upton: 27.9" Allentown: 23.0" NYC JFK: 22.0" Newark: 21.2" NYC Central Park: 20.1" Washington Dulles: 10.3" Baltimore BWI: 6.8" Atlantic City: 5.2" Philadelphia: 5.2' Washington National: 3.6" That's Central Park number is absurd compared to LGA. LGA should have 2-3 more AT BEST (and all that difference should have been from the "Blizzard"). Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 How can we improve predictions? Some types of jet-stream fluctuations are not well predicted by NWS models, particularly those related to week-to-week changes in the tropical atmosphere. Better understanding of the processes in the tropical atmosphere that lead to jet-stream variations is needed so that we can improve the ability of forecast models to predict them. Determining the risk of an extreme event requires detailed knowledge of all the uncertainties in the model forecast. Improving our estimates of these uncertainties results directly in more accurate and reliable warnings. Both of these are active areas of ESRL research. One source of uncertainty is the observational information used to start a forecast model, another is in the physics of the models themselves. For example, our current global observing system does not monitor water vapor transport, which means that atmospheric rivers may appear in the models with incorrect amount of water vapor, strength of wind, or both. Similarly, the physical representation of atmospheric rivers in the global models may be inadequate due to spatial resolution limitations. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/research/themes/climateweather/ http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/analogs/index.html http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/analogs/images/prob.gt.90thpctile_144to168hrs_2015020300.png http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/analogs/images/ensmean_144to168hrs_2015020300.png the skinny...it snows in the metro Feb 9-10th but hey WTFDIK I just post free maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Season to Date Snowfall 2014-15 / Through 2/3/2015 Worcester: 72.6" Boston: 53.4" Albany 51.9" Providence: 36.0" Islip: 35.7" Hartford: 33.7" Scranton: 33.5" Bridgeport: 30.6" NYC LaGuardia: 27.9" NWS Upton: 27.9" Allentown: 23.0" NYC JFK: 22.0" Newark: 21.2" NYC Central Park: 20.1" Washington Dulles: 10.3" Baltimore BWI: 6.8" Atlantic City: 5.2" Philadelphia: 5.2" Washington National: 3.6" Even in Long Beach, they're probably at 25" or over. Assuming 14-15" from the storm a week ago, 5-6" from yesterday, and 6" from the smaller clippers early in Jan, that adds up to 25" or so. Central Park should be at least 25-26". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Even in Long Beach, they're probably at 25" or over. Assuming 14-15" from the storm a week ago, 5-6" from yesterday, and 6" from the smaller clippers early in Jan, that adds up to 25" or so. Central Park should be at least 25-26". [/quote 27 here and no way we have more then cpk. We completely missed the little event last week. And cpk really has 6" from the first half of yesterday alone while we had 3. And only 15" from the "blizzard" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 NYC JFK: 22.0" Newark: 21.2" NYC Central Park: 20.1" I think CPK probably undermeasured also...but those 3 spots are all within 2 inches of each other; LGA is the outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 The constant bitching between Yanksfan and ag3 needs to stop...for good. No one cares where the 850c line is 6 days out. Also, I have no idea why people can't get it into their heads that the paid European maps are not supposed to be posted here under any circumstances. Dr. Maue is aware of the issue and will be cracking down on these posters soon. So if you like your WxBell subscription, I would probably stop. The ECMWF center just needs to release the data for free already, paid meteorology products are becoming a dinosaur quickly in the developed nations at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Clear skies, light winds, snow on the ground...cold...Westhampton 6 F, Upton BNL 9 F @ 9 PM...with the anticyclone parked over Hatteras the next 10 hours...might keep winds down enough & skies clear enough for sub zero reading(s). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/P_96hrbw.gif hows this for incoming mojo?? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/rgb-l.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 4, 2015 Share Posted February 4, 2015 Top-3 night of the year tonight. One could literally not imagine a nicer winter's eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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