2014-15 Total New England Snow Table

[tamarack]

Down here, agreed.

Like I said, I enjoyed '96 more....but I think parts of NNE and NYC points south would beg to differ.

Numbers don't matter if it's like 20" in areas that average 50-60"........but when it's like 30-40"+ in areas that average 15-25"...yea, it def. matters.

 

NNE didin't have the epic melt that we did.

 

We didn't?  At my (then) Gardiner, Maine home we went from 28" down to 5" in mid-late January, and farther inland Farmington dropped from 40" to 8", with some hefty ice-jam floods on the Sandy.  Farmington pack grew to 21" by mid Feb, dropped to 7" by month's end, back up to 23" on March 11 and all gone before two weeks had passed, though April's 20" gave 6 more days with at least 1" OG.   From a wintry wx standpoint, each month Dec-Mar was great for 2-3 weeks then meh (Dec) to awful (JFM) for the rest of the month.  Last day of conitiuous snowpack in 1996 was 3/23, two days ahead of avg and 4 days ahead of median.

[40/70 Benchmark]

We didn't? At my (then) Gardiner, Maine home we went from 28" down to 5" in mid-late January, and farther inland Farmington dropped from 40" to 8", with some hefty ice-jam floods on the Sandy. Farmington pack grew to 21" by mid Feb, dropped to 7" by month's end, back up to 23" on March 11 and all gone before two weeks had passed, though April's 20" gave 6 more days with at least 1" OG. From a wintry wx standpoint, each month Dec-Mar was great for 2-3 weeks then meh (Dec) to awful (JFM) for the rest of the month. Last day of conitiuous snowpack in 1996 was 3/23, two days ahead of avg and 4 days ahead of median.

Well, over toward PF they didn't. Which winter did you like better?

[powderfreak]

oweing to the veracity of this winter versus 96 places like Bridgton Maine were melted out at the end of March , this year 17 otg. Places like Mt Mansfield however peaked on April 18th with 135 inches OTG, very much elevation dependent in a high qpf warmer winter

That's our pattern, haha. High QPF and warmer will favor northwest New England in the means. 300+ inches at the Coop is damn impressive for that precip can on the summit. Getting that much snow to fall in a windy 8-inch diameter opening/hole is very nice.

[Ginx snewx]

That's our pattern, haha. High QPF and warmer will favor northwest New England in the means. 300+ inches at the Coop is damn impressive for that precip can on the summit. Getting that much snow to fall in a windy 8-inch diameter opening/hole is very nice.

wonder what the base had

[CoastalWx]

Hingham broke their record it appears. 117.7 vs 112.2 in '95-'96.

[Baroclinic Zone]

+0.3" from Saturday = 118.7"

Dammit!  You knocked me out of the top 5 again.    

[tamarack]

Well, over toward PF they didn't. Which winter did you like better?

 

Both decent winters, both well down the list from the best.  Since my paycheck has come from timber harvesting ever since 1976, this year is preferable to the slushy muddy mess that repeatedly mucked up the woods during JFM 1996.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

I can't see that at work, but why don't you compare snowfall totals from '96 and 15' for the entire east coast down to N Carolina.

Post that table.

I still find it ridiculous that NOAA posts these tables and lists IAD (Dulles airport 35 miles west of Washington as Washington DC totals. It's like listing Worcester as Boston totals. Yes I know they list national airport which is actually in Washington also but that still doesn't make it right.

[Damage In Tolland]

+1 inch Easter Sunday snow

107" total YTD

[SouthCoastMA]

I highly highly doubt I receive any more accumulating snow this year. On that note, my final is 96.6". That concludes three straight well above average winters.

[Allenson]

97.4"

[Cold Miser]

Wrapping this season up with 100" total.

 

Hopefully Will will put together one of his famous winter maps with all of the data provided.

[40/70 Benchmark]

T on 4/8...AIT.

 

115.5" is the final tally.

 

I'm going to start a graded review of my winter outlook now.

[CoastalWx]

T on 4/8...AIT.

 

115.5" is the final tally.

 

I'm going to start a graded review of my winter outlook now.

 

[Cold Miser]

T on 4/8...AIT.

 

115.5" is the final tally.

 

I'm going to start a graded review of my winter outlook now.

...We wait (in anticipation).

[40/70 Benchmark]

...We wait (in anticipation).

Initial thoughts are that I nailed it qualitatively, as in where the greatest anomalies would be, but struggled a bit quantitatively in that many of my totals were too low, and I completely blew the polar fields. The rest of the indexes I nailed.

Good outlook overall, but plenty of room for improvement.

I did of course have the general idea of a very robust winter correct

[CoastalWx]

Initial thoughts are that I nailed it qualitatively, as in where the greatest anomalies would be, but struggled a bit quantitatively in that many of my totals were too low, and I completely blew the polar fields. The rest of the indexes I nailed.

Good outlook overall, but plenty of room for improvement.

I did of course have the general idea of a very robust winter correct

 

This winter defied a lot of things, so no need to kick yourself on anything. You stuck to your guns and it worked out. 

[ORH_wxman]

This winter defied a lot of things, so no need to kick yourself on anything. You stuck to your guns and it worked out. 

 

 

NAO/AO completely shat the bed...thankfully the PNA was awesome and EPO.

 

So in some respects, the winter was absolutely nothing like '76-'77, '77-'78, '04-'05, and other weak prolfiic Ninos from an upper air perspective...but OTOH, the sensible wx was similar sans the torch December.

 

One thing most of the weak Ninos have in common though is that nice PNA ridge.

[dendrite]

98.2"

So close...yet so far.

[CoastalWx]

NAO/AO completely shat the bed...thankfully the PNA was awesome and EPO.

 

So in some respects, the winter was absolutely nothing like '76-'77, '77-'78, '04-'05, and other weak prolfiic Ninos from an upper air perspective...but OTOH, the sensible wx was similar sans the torch December.

 

One thing most of the weak Ninos have in common though is that nice PNA ridge.

 

Yeah that's the thing....what a completely unexpected upper air pattern up in the polar regions when you think about prolific winters of 70-100+" of snow over the region. Quite dumbfounding when you think of it. But as usual...the Pacific is extremely important as you noted.

[powderfreak]

Yeah that's the thing....what a completely unexpected upper air pattern up in the polar regions when you think about prolific winters of 70-100+" of snow over the region. Quite dumbfounding when you think of it. But as usual...the Pacific is extremely important as you noted.

 

Do you think that the fact that the vast majority of it fell over only a 3-week period of time makes it hard to compare that "pattern" to those of other big winters where the snowfall was likely spread out over a much longer period of time?  Its almost like the pattern as a whole (the composite view) may not have been what you'd expect for historic snows, but the pattern delivered for just a long enough time to make it historic.  If that makes any sense.  I know it doesn't matter in the end if 80% falls in 3-weeks vs. steady over 12 weeks....but when comparing patterns that probably has to be acknowledged?

 

This certainly wasn't a pattern that was delivering consistent solid warning events throughout the winter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This winter defied a lot of things, so no need to kick yourself on anything. You stuck to your guns and it worked out. 

Well, I did a very good  job...not kicking myself; however there was room for improvement.

The moment you stop believing that there isn't is the moment you begin to fall flat on your face.

 

There were a couple of caveats RE the polar region that you mentioned and I could of taken under stronger consideration, but chose not to....ie the overly robust -QBO and the solar maximum, albeit a relatively weak one.

[CoastalWx]

Do you think that the fact that the vast majority of it fell over only a 3-week period of time makes it hard to compare that "pattern" to those of other big winters where the snowfall was likely spread out over a much longer period of time?  Its almost like the pattern as a whole (the composite view) may not have been what you'd expect for historic snows, but the pattern delivered for just a long enough time to make it historic.  If that makes any sense.  I know it doesn't matter in the end if 80% falls in 3-weeks vs. steady over 12 weeks....but when comparing patterns that probably has to be acknowledged?

 

This certainly wasn't a pattern that was delivering consistent solid warning events throughout the winter.

I see what you mean.

 

Perhaps. But I still think that look up there with a rather stout +NAO and AO makes it hard to sustain storm after storm with all cold and no cutters. That's what we had. We did have the NAO at times relax and go a bit transient...but still...to have all that and no cutters with a look like that? No way would I ever expect that. Pacific is king.  It goes to show you how a slight shuffle in the pattern can mean everything to New England. +NAO and ridging near AK and the EPAC meant 80s style for a few weeks in Jan. Shift that a few hudred miles east and we get crushed.  

 

Basically the pattern overall wasn't a hell of a lot different from last year in terms of where the ridging and PV were located. However, this year was a more classic +PNA during our blitz, vs last year with a more -EPO.  December was more of a classic Nino GOAK trough. November was likely aided by typhoon recurves. 

 

As always, throw in some luck and pixie dust that none of us can foresee. Atmospheric chaos helping us out...unlike in 2010.

[CoastalWx]

Well, I did a very good  job...not kicking myself; however there was room for improvement.

The moment you stop believing that there isn't is the moment you begin to fall flat on your face.

 

There were a couple of caveats RE the polar region that you mentioned and I could of taken under stronger consideration, but chose not to....ie the overly robust -QBO and the solar maximum, albeit a relatively weak one.

 

Well of course..always room for improvement. 

 

What I mean is you stuck to your overall idea and didn't budge. So, regardless of whatever your reasons were..you stuck to knowledge of climo and it worked out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well of course..always room for improvement. 

 

What I mean is you stuck to your overall idea and didn't budge. So, regardless of whatever your reasons were..you stuck to knowledge of climo and it worked out. 

Yes, I feel good about that.

[powderfreak]

I see what you mean.

Perhaps. But I still think that look up there with a rather stout +NAO and AO makes it hard to sustain storm after storm with all cold and no cutters. That's what we had. We did have the NAO at times relax and go a bit transient...but still...to have all that and no cutters with a look like that? No way would I ever expect that. Pacific is king. It goes to show you how a slight shuffle in the pattern can mean everything to New England. +NAO and ridging near AK and the EPAC meant 80s style for a few weeks in Jan. Shift that a few hudred miles east and we get crushed.

Basically the pattern overall wasn't a hell of a lot different from last year in terms of where the ridging and PV were located. However, this year was a more classic +PNA during our blitz, vs last year with a more -EPO. December was more of a classic Nino GOAK trough. November was likely aided by typhoon recurves.

As always, throw in some luck and pixie dust that none of us can foresee. Atmospheric chaos helping us out...unlike in 2010.

Yeah you make some great points...thanks. It was just a thought I had when comparing the entire winter pattern. It certainly had to be favorable to get that much snow along with the cold temps, but was just curious if we thought time frame played any role.

Again from a pattern standpoint, it would be interesting to compare some composite maps of like H5 for those three weeks vs the rest of the winter. Probably not much different, but would be interesting to see what caused it to not really snow up to late Jan, and what caused it to sort to die off after late February.

Luck/chaos helps, but that graph of BOS's seasonal snowfall sort of shows how different the various periods of this winter were...it's like flatlining, then goes straight up to record levels, then flatlined again. The composites of those different periods would be interesting to look at.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah you make some great points...thanks. It was just a thought I had when comparing the entire winter pattern. It certainly had to be favorable to get that much snow along with the cold temps, but was just curious if we thought time frame played any role.

Again from a pattern standpoint, it would be interesting to compare some composite maps of like H5 for those three weeks vs the rest of the winter. Probably not much different, but would be interesting to see what caused it to not really snow up to late Jan, and what caused it to sort to die off after late February.

Luck/chaos helps, but that graph of BOS's seasonal snowfall sort of shows how different the various periods of this winter were...it's like flatlining, then goes straight up to record levels, then flatlined again. The composites of those different periods would be interesting to look at.

 

Mike Ventrice had a great looping plot of H5 anomalies from November through March. It was really cool. Just a shift to a more favorable ridge pattern out west and the PV helping to bring in the cold into the northeast and suppress any cutting chances like the one storm we had on 2/6-2/7. That was a CONUS furnace except here in NE. This was our so called "relaxation" period. LOL.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Projected Seasonal Snowfall for Winter 2014-'15

Boston, MA 65-75"......110.3"

New York, NY  35-45"....... (JFK)44.2", (CP)50.3", (LGA)53.8"

Philadelphia, PA 30-40"........27"

Baltimore, MD 15-25"..........28.7"

Washington, DC 15-20"......18.3"

Albany, NY 70-80"........75.9"

Hartford, CT 65-75"........63.8"

Providence, RI 65-75".......76.2"

Worcester, MA 80-90".......119.5"

Tolland, CT 70-80".......107"

KGAY- 90-100"........115.5"

Burlington, VT 80-90"......83.4"

Portland, ME 85-95".......94.5"

Concord, NH 75-85".....92.1"

[ORH_wxman]

I had thought we would see a robust -NAO for at least a time...and def a -AO in the means. That was a complete failure.

 

For the upper air pattern, I'd give myself a C-/D+ on what I was thinking ....that's a huge miss.

 

But I would be happy that I threw out caution flags for December and was bullish on Jan/Feb. The PNA ridge progression worked out like it usually does in El Ninos...so that part was good. The sensible wx idea worked out ok.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I had thought we would see a robust -NAO for at least a time...and def a -AO in the means. That was a complete failure.

 

For the upper air pattern, I'd give myself a C-/D+ on what I was thinking ....that's a huge miss.

 

But I would be happy that I threw out caution flags for December and was bullish on Jan/Feb. The PNA ridge progression worked out like it usually does in El Ninos...so that part was good. The sensible wx idea worked out ok.

I don't know of anyone who predicted the NAO/AO to behave in the manner that it ultimately did, so....