Allsnow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 earthlight going for a huge winter in his outlook….giddy up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 earthlight going for a huge winter in his outlook….giddy up Predominantly neg nao and ao. Loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 where can I view his outlook? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 where can I view his outlook? http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 http://www.nymetroweather.com/2014/11/04/winter-forecast-2014-2015/ thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 One of the most reliable on here Earthlight. So much wintry excitement already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TeleConnectSnow Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 It's a joke cause its the CFS snow forecast, but its just something to get you in the snow spirit you could say. Check out the first picture, it showed up the last frame lol HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Anyone concerned about going into a winter type pattern so early?? Unless we get wall to wall cold witch is very rare. The pattern is going to relax and reload at some point. And as someone was saying in the new England forum I believe it often takes like 30 days for the pattern to change. So if we get into a winter pattern so early were unfortunately probably going to see a relaxation of the pattern in the middle of winter and there's no way to tell how long it will take to reload if It does at all. Just wondering what thoughts other people had about this.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 One of the most reliable on here Earthlight. So much wintry excitement already. Having Earthlight on our side for a snowy winter is definitely a good thing. This winter is looking like a good one based on the signs we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 If anything the fact that the winter pattern is setting up earlier than we thought may lead to a below average Dec-Feb with above normal snowfall when previously December was more of a toss up as Earthlights outlook explained so neatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 This winter is looking interesting indeed. Everything is just blending into a pot of stew. Delicious stew. Mmmmm.....stew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Wow, some of the GEFS members absolutely drop the hammer mid-month. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesNHEM500mb00180.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Wow, some of the GEFS members absolutely drop the hammer mid-month. http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/GEFSIndiesNHEM500mb00180.gif 1.gif 0z Euro Ensembles appear to be trending that way as. The West Coast Ridge and high-lattiude block causes the PV drop into James Bay. Cold air invades central and eastern US, later next week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The Euro and ensembles are coming around to the idea of an early season PV drop to near Lake Superior with an Arctic airmass spilling east in the following days. This is the kind of pattern where NYC could dip below 30 degrees for the first time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 When you see the blocking extend from the west coast over the top and hooking into Eastern Europe like you see here you are going to see the automated numbers get beat from day 10 on , Source region . This is direct arctic low level cold air . Get this set up in Jan and that`s how you test 0F around these parts . Too early for that now but this is kind of set up that gets a week plus of 10F below normal in the NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Hey why don't y'all see what you can do to put winter off for a little longer :|. I just bought a BRZ and need some time to play with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The Euro and ensembles are coming around to the idea of an early season PV drop to near Lake Superior with an Arctic airmass spilling east in the following days. This is the kind of pattern where NYC could dip below 30 degrees for the first time this season. get_legacy_plot-web248-20141105102825-28487-5240.gif The 0z Euro op does have lows 26-29 for NYC late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The 0z Euro op does have lows 26-29 for NYC late next week. the AO is forecasted to be going significantly negative for a few days next week thats why we are going much below normal - but the NAO is forecasted to be just slightly negative for a couple of days then go back into positive territory - so all of these cold shots are going to be transient for now - we need the NAO to get down to the levels we saw in early October if anyone is hoping for frozen precip around NYC in November http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The 0z Euro op does have lows 26-29 for NYC late next week. It's interesting that we saw a strong cold shot at this time last year with NYC dropping to 29 on 11-13-13 and a daily temperature departure of -15. JFK had a second coldest record for the date. 11/13 25 in 1986 29 in 2013 29 in 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 It does look like today and tomorrow will be the last time it'll be that warm in a long time. It certainly won't turn frigid right away but things look to turn below normal by late this week and then perhaps way below next week. The real chill looks to be timed well with the AO dropping and also the typhoon recurving effects will if anything enhance the east coast troughing further. May return to 60s by next Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 May return to 60s by next Tuesday The following week will break your Tues streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The following week will break your Tues streak IMO this winter is looking earily similar atleast to the 500mb pattern the way 77-78 behaved. Blocking over the top into eastern europe causing the cold to be locked almost permanently over the central-eastern US. During the winter season i can see some relexation/ reload but by and large this in the department of cold looks like a big ticket winter. Precip and snow at that have obviously yet to be speculated on as we are not in prime season for that yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 IMO this winter is looking earily similar atleast to the 500mb pattern the way 77-78 behaved. Blocking over the top into eastern europe causing the cold to be locked almost permanently over the central-eastern US. During the winter season i can see some relexation/ reload but by and large this in the department of cold looks like a big ticket winter. Precip and snow at that have obviously yet to be speculated on as we are not in prime season for that yet. Too early IMO . One can hope . I will just take 2 weeks a time and go from there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 Too early IMO . One can hope . I will just take 2 weeks a time and go from there . I agree they're just looking at the current forecast the next two-three weeks and seeing stark resemblance to that holy grail of cold winter. Going forward it looks like it may lock itself in but my main concern remains consistent west based -NAO and also not having the PV be too overwhelming like last year at times. ( although the PV and strong -EPO saved what could've been a sub par winter for us ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 earthlight going for a huge winter in his outlook….giddy upI feel like I can never post again after reading that. Good God was that educational, thorough...and exciting. Well done Earthlight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I agree they're just looking at the current forecast the next two-three weeks and seeing stark resemblance to that holy grail of cold winter. Going forward it looks like it may lock itself in but my main concern remains consistent west based -NAO and also not having the PV be too overwhelming like last year at times. ( although the PV and strong -EPO saved what could've been a sub par winter for us ) The one thing you have going for you is that patterns like to lock in, the last few years. My fear is we get super suppression. Feb 5-6 11 ftw. Playing with those late 70s winters scares me. Seeing the western Long Island sound freeze would be cool and all but I'll go snow with more normal temps any day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 May return to 60s by next Tuesday I shouldn't say we won't see those temps again as even in January 60s are possible during cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The one thing you have going for you is that patterns like to lock in, the last few years. My fear is we get super suppression. Feb 5-6 11 ftw. Playing with those late 70s winters scares me. Seeing the western Long Island sound freeze would be cool and all but I'll go snow with more normal temps any day! I do agree that patterns do like to lock in and this pattern and all teleconnectors pertaining to it look to do just that RIGHT NOW. i am going to err on the side of caution right now because we're not even half way through november yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 I feel like I can never post again after reading that. Good God was that educational, thorough...and exciting. Well done Earthlight! When Earthlight calls for a severe winter, that raises the excitement levels big time around here. I'm convinced now more than ever that we're in for a doozy of a winter. My only fear now is too strong of a -NAO/-AO signal which could cause a suppression problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted November 5, 2014 Share Posted November 5, 2014 The Euro and ensembles are coming around to the idea of an early season PV drop to near Lake Superior with an Arctic airmass spilling east in the following days. This is the kind of pattern where NYC could dip below 30 degrees for the first time this season. get_legacy_plot-web248-20141105102825-28487-5240.gif Oh no, not below 30 degrees, will they survive? In all seriousness, the GEFS continue to show a general below normal pattern for at least the next 2+ weeks with the core of the cold centered over the lakes before moderating some and eventually sliding eastward. The coldest time period still looks to be focused around day 10 with -4C to -6C departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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