November 2014 General Discussion

[BuffaloWeather]

I'm really looking forward to veterans day. One last beautiful nice day to enjoy outside before the cold entrenches itself.

 

Veterans Day -  Sunny, with a high near 67. Southeast wind around 7 mph. Should be able to put one more golfing day in this year.

[michsnowfreak]

Yes Veterans day looks to be our last mild day for a while. Veterans Day last year had rain changing to snow, with 0.5" at DTW & 0.4". The historic 2013-14 season officially commenced!

[vortex]

Yes Veterans day looks to be our last mild day for a while. Veterans Day last year had rain changing to snow, with 0.5" at DTW & 0.4". The historic 2013-14 season officially commenced!

Same here.  A pic last year from the morning after.  

Was worried we would flip warm at some point during the winter since we had the early snowfall, which had been a long time here since that happened.  

[Powerball]

Most of the trees are bare here. The straddlers should be done for come Wednesday, once the CAA kicks in...

[michsnowfreak]

Same here.  A pic last year from the morning after.  

Was worried we would flip warm at some point during the winter since we had the early snowfall, which had been a long time here since that happened.  

Nice pic! The snow melted a bit after it stopped falling then froze into white ice overnight.

 

I have NEVER seen a significant snowstorm in November, which is actually quite shocking when you think of it. For one, the prevalence of significant snowstorms in Detroit has absolutely skyrocketed this century (over double what we saw in the 20th century), but its even more quirky when you consider that since 2003, we have had 3 significant snowstorms in April and a few additional snows that blanketed the ground (to go with the numerous slushy coatings which is what you would expect in April). In the 20th century, November (3.0") averaged almost TWICE the snowfall of April (1.7"), but in the latest 1981-2010 set of normals those numbers have plummeted to where Nov (1.5") now averages less than April (1.7")!!! I bring this odd quirk up every November, and it just keeps on keeping on. Last November, with a cold pattern seemingly locked in, I remember thinking, maybe THIS will be the year the quirk stops. So what happened last year? 1.2" fell in November and 93.7" fell from Dec-Apr

[michsnowfreak]

Most of the trees are bare here. The straddlers should be done for come Wednesday, once the CAA kicks in...

Yeah, 90% are all bare but there are some straddlers. Now everyone needs to clean up all their leaves and the street cleaners need to rid the curbs of all the leave-banks

[Geos]

Basically done with the leaves now. Some stragglers up in the Maple trees, but I'd say 95% bare now. The remaining few can wait around until spring, lol. 

 

51°/33° for today's high and low.

[Gilbertfly]

Given the way the forecast looks, tomorrow may be the day for exterior illumination....at least for the ones that require walking on rooftops and going up high on the ladder...the rest can wait until after turkey day

[Ottawa Blizzard]

A little OT, climate change aside, there is a difference in public reaction between the brutal 70's winters and the past few (especially last year's). I am speaking as someone who has lived through both.

 

Many younger and middle-aged people in this area in the late 70's went with and even embraced brutal winters. Hockey began to become popular and snowmobile sales skyrocketed, not by people to take to the UP, but just to ride the fields around here. This is an area that normally receives less than 3 feet of snow annually. lol The attitude was that if that's what ma nature dishes out, we'll deal with it.

 

The attitude I've noticed from the public with the recent harsh winters is basically, "Make it stop!" I've heard many people, and I'm talking about young and middle-aged people, say they will move to warmer climates if we have yet another 'bad' winter.

 

This could lead to a discussion of changes in social attitudes over the years, but I just think that it's interesting how the overall reaction to a bad (good) winter has changed in the past 35 years.

Excellent post! Case in point. here is a pond not far from where I live that isn't that deep and freezes solid once we get overnight temperatures in the teens. I can remember during the 2002-2003 winter the pond was maintained by the city as a natural ice rink. Last year, and indeed for the past decade, signs have gone up saying " Ice unsafe. Keep off". The mentality of the public seems to be that cold winters just don't happen anymore. Plus, the culture has changed. I'm not sure about the US, but in Canada, the "in thing" is to try and avoid winter. If I go for a walk in single digit temperatures, I'm told that it's dangerous, despite my being well dressed for it. People go to the Caribbean or fly to Florida for the winter in an attempt to avoid winter. This in a country which used to be known for its resilience and adaptation to the cold.

[michsnowfreak]

Excellent points IWX & Ottawa. The jargon about lakes always freezing over in the old days and not now is something I have heard in the past, and its hilarious because its bunk. Unless water froze at a different temperature back then. Temp records exist for a reason. In contrast, last winter an angler on Lake St Clair said that it was the thickest ice he has ever seen in the 30 years hes been ice fishing.

[wxhstn74]

Polar Surge Heading for the Region Impressive for November Standards!

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/11/polar-surge-heading-for-region_9.html

[Jonger]

Excellent post! Case in point. here is a pond not far from where I live that isn't that deep and freezes solid once we get overnight temperatures in the teens. I can remember during the 2002-2003 winter the pond was maintained by the city as a natural ice rink. Last year, and indeed for the past decade, signs have gone up saying " Ice unsafe. Keep off". The mentality of the public seems to be that cold winters just don't happen anymore. Plus, the culture has changed. I'm not sure about the US, but in Canada, the "in thing" is to try and avoid winter. If I go for a walk in single digit temperatures, I'm told that it's dangerous, despite my being well dressed for it. People go to the Caribbean or fly to Florida for the winter in an attempt to avoid winter. This in a country which used to be known for its resilience and adaptation to the cold.

 

Much of this has to do with social media... Most people prefer warmth, but the constant barrage of vacation pics with people bragging about the warmth doesn't help.

 

I have had people complain to me about snow, while standing next to a pump towing my snowmobile trailer, it's just the thing to do.

 

I just came back from the Snowmobile Convention in Novi, it was nice being in a building with over a couple thousand people, all pro winter crowd.

[IWXwx]

Polar Surge Heading for the Region Impressive for November Standards!

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2014/11/polar-surge-heading-for-region_9.html

 

 

Thanks for the write-up, Bill. I can see it now, the media hype about "Polar Vortex II, The Arctic Invasion Returns" or something along those lines.

[buckeye]

Thanks for the write-up, Bill. I can see it now, the media hype about "Polar Vortex II, The Arctic Invasion Returns" or something along those lines.

 

damn social media....

can't wait til the public becomes privy to the terms negative NAO and positive AO.  It'll be like climatic ebola.

[Geos]

Yeah I hear people complaining more about really cold and snowy weather more than hot weather. I think Jonger definitely has a point with the social media. Before like 2005 or so I didn't hear all that much complaining about winter weather, but the last few years especially there seems like more of it. 

The media putting out terms like Snowmegodon and Polar vortex just fuels the complaining.

 

Ottawa - I find that pretty funny that up your way you have a lot of people complaining about winter weather! You get just as much or even more than this area! 

[Powerball]

Excellent points IWX & Ottawa. The jargon about lakes always freezing over in the old days and not now is something I have heard in the past, and its hilarious because its bunk. Unless water froze at a different temperature back then. Temp records exist for a reason. In contrast, last winter an angler on Lake St Clair said that it was the thickest ice he has ever seen in the 30 years hes been ice fishing.

 

I know a lot of folks would also brag about how one could safely walk across the Detroit River to Canada "in the old days."

 

One probably could have done so last winter for sure...

[michsnowfreak]

I know a lot of folks would also brag about how one could safely walk across the Detroit River to Canada "in the old days."

 

One probably could have done so last winter for sure...

ice cutters play a role too though. Some winters you can, some you cant, but the frequency of mild winters in the 1950s is greater than it is today. Its funny, the mild winters of the '50s were followed by harsh winters in the '70s...and mild winters of the '90s have been followed by harsh winters in the '10s?

[sokolow]

Given one of the major demographic phenomena of the postwar USA is

... starting in the 50s and 60s and which was already cliche when Howard Mohr's How to Talk Minnesotan came out a generation ago,

And even before that,

"without cyclones or blizzards"

I will offer the alternative explanation that rather than witnessing a social-media enabled generational change, we here in our self selecting forum of winter sport loving blizzard and cyclone enthusiasts might have a challenging set of powerfully held personal biases influencing our observations about generalized cultural attitudes towards inclement weather.

[DAFF]

I know a lot of folks would also brag about how one could safely walk across the Detroit River to Canada "in the old days."

 

One probably could have done so last winter for sure...

Before ice breakers that would be a fairly easy feat in my opinion. To cross Lake Erie on a snowmobile and head to the bar with some friends is crazy stuff. Some friends of friends did it last winter. They said the trip was EZ other than the section where the ice breaker had passed by earlier. It had re frozen but not to the same magnitude as the rest of the lake.

 

Thanks for the write-up, Bill. I can see it now, the media hype about "Polar Vortex II, The Arctic Invasion Returns" or something along those lines.

 

Too funny!!

[hawkeye_wx]

We are already in the low 50s with decent sun.  It would appear 60 is a good possibility this afternoon.  I still have more garden work to finish so I'll enjoy today.

[michsnowfreak]

Looking at the top 20 coldest Novembers at Detroit, 8 of the 20 had LESS than 3" of snow. So a cold November with light snow is really not that uncommon. Lets hope that is not the case in 2014.

 

01.) 29.8F - 1880....7.7"

02.) 33.5F - 1976....1.4"

03.) 34.2F - 1996....4.1"

04.) 34.5F - 1875....3.7"

05.) 34.6F - 1951....8.3"

06.) 34.9F - 1894....6.9"

07.) 35.2F - 1967....1.4"

08.) 35.4F - 1936....2.0"

09.) 35.5F - 1911....7.0"

09.) 35.5F - 1995....1.3"

11.) 35.6F - 1892....6.6"

12.) 35.7F - 1910....2.3"

13.) 36.0F - 1933..10.5"

14.) 36.4F - 1901....T

14.) 36.4F - 1903....2.3"

16.) 36.5F - 1891....6.8"

17.) 36.6F - 1959....8.1"

18.) 36.7F - 1950....9.2"

19.) 36.9F - 1929....1.4"

20.) 37.1F - 1997....4.6"

[cyclone77]

62 in the point for today, and near 40 for tomorrow.  After that we may not make it above freezing again until Saturday.

[TugHillMatt]

We are already in the low 50s with decent sun.  It would appear 60 is a good possibility this afternoon.  I still have more garden work to finish so I'll enjoy today.

 

Me too. I woke up this morning at 5 and did some raking before coming to work (I'm strange as I love working outside in the dark). I'm going to do some more tonight and tomorrow morning before it gets covered up by lake effect snow this week.

[Geos]

Upper 40s, clouds and a wind off the water this morning. Highest temp after tomorrow morning's high is 35°!

[Hoosier]

Looking at the top 20 coldest Novembers at Detroit, 8 of the 20 had LESS than 3" of snow. So a cold November with light snow is really not that uncommon. Lets hope that is not the case in 2014.

 

01.) 29.8F - 1880....7.7"

02.) 33.5F - 1976....1.4"

03.) 34.2F - 1996....4.1"

04.) 34.5F - 1875....3.7"

05.) 34.6F - 1951....8.3"

06.) 34.9F - 1894....6.9"

07.) 35.2F - 1967....1.4"

08.) 35.4F - 1936....2.0"

09.) 35.5F - 1911....7.0"

09.) 35.5F - 1995....1.3"

11.) 35.6F - 1892....6.6"

12.) 35.7F - 1910....2.3"

13.) 36.0F - 1933..10.5"

14.) 36.4F - 1901....T

14.) 36.4F - 1903....2.3"

16.) 36.5F - 1891....6.8"

17.) 36.6F - 1959....8.1"

18.) 36.7F - 1950....9.2"

19.) 36.9F - 1929....1.4"

20.) 37.1F - 1997....4.6"

 

 

Could you run this for the 20 warmest and see what you get?

[michsnowfreak]

Could you run this for the 20 warmest and see what you get?

I decided to take it a step further...do the 30 coldest & warmest Novembers and their snowfall.

 

TOP 30 WARMEST NOVEMBERS at Detroit...2"+ snowfall highlighted in blue

01.) 47.8F - 1931....0.7"

02.) 47.6F - 2001....0

03.) 46.9F - 1902....5.1"

04.) 46.8F - 1975....6.5"

05.) 46.6F - 2011....0.6"

06.) 46.0F - 1963....T

07.) 45.7F - 1948....T

08.) 45.5F - 1994....T

09.) 45.3F - 2009....0

10.) 45.2F - 1999....T

11.) 44.9F - 1909....0.3"

11.) 44.9F - 1964....2.6"

13.) 44.5F - 1953....3.0"

14.) 44.3F - 2003....0.4"

15.) 44.3F - 1883....0.5"

16.) 44.2F - 1990....T

17.) 43.9F - 1946....0.3"

18.) 43.7F - 1998....0

19.) 43.6F - 1934....T

19.) 43.6F - 1960....1.0"

21.) 43.5F - 1881....0.2"

21.) 43.5F - 1913....3.6"

21.) 43.5F - 1927....3.8"

21.) 43.5F - 1987....0.7"

25.) 43.2F - 2005....4.3"

26.) 43.0F - 1941....0.5"

26.) 43.0F - 2004....0.1"

28.) 42.9F - 1958....4.5"

29.) 42.8F - 1899....T

29.) 42.8F - 1952....T

 

TOP 30 COLDEST NOVEMBERS at Detroit...2.9" or less snowfall highlighted in red

01.) 29.8F - 1880....7.7"

02.) 33.5F - 1976....1.4"

03.) 34.2F - 1996....4.1"

04.) 34.5F - 1875....3.7"

05.) 34.6F - 1951....8.3"

06.) 34.9F - 1894....6.9"

07.) 35.2F - 1967....1.4"

08.) 35.4F - 1936....2.0"

09.) 35.5F - 1911....7.0"

09.) 35.5F - 1995....1.3"

11.) 35.6F - 1892....6.6"

12.) 35.7F - 1910....2.3"

13.) 36.0F - 1933..10.5"

14.) 36.4F - 1901....T

14.) 36.4F - 1903....2.3"

16.) 36.5F - 1891....6.8"

17.) 36.6F - 1959....8.1"

18.) 36.7F - 1950....9.2"

19.) 36.9F - 1929....1.4"

20.) 37.1F - 1947....3.1"

20.) 37.1F - 1997....4.6"

22.) 37.2F - 1932..10.1"

23.) 37.3F - 1986....3.3"

24.) 37.4F - 1972....7.1"

24.) 37.4F - 1980....3.4"

26.) 37.5F - 1898....8.9"

26.) 37.5F - 1905....0.3"

26.) 37.5F - 2013....1.2"

29.) 37.7F - 1955....4.8"

30.) 37.8F - 1874....9.6"

 

While the results GENERALLY lean towards the colder Novembers having above normal snow & wamer Novembers having below normal, there are WAY too many exceptions to consider it anything more than a crapshoot.

[Whitelakeroy]

I decided to take it a step further...do the 30 coldest & warmest Novembers and their snowfall.

 

.......

 

While the results GENERALLY lean towards the colder Novembers having above normal snow & wamer Novembers having below normal, there are WAY too many exceptions to consider it anything more than a crapshoot.

It goes the same with winter: below normal temps do not mean above normal snow & above normal temps do not mean below normal snow.  Your odds are just much improved.

[michsnowfreak]

It goes the same with winter: below normal temps do not mean above normal snow & above normal temps do not mean below normal snow.  Your odds are just much improved.

Exactly!

[Hoosier]

I decided to take it a step further...do the 30 coldest & warmest Novembers and their snowfall.

 

TOP 30 WARMEST NOVEMBERS at Detroit...2"+ snowfall highlighted in blue

01.) 47.8F - 1931....0.7"

02.) 47.6F - 2001....0

03.) 46.9F - 1902....5.1"

04.) 46.8F - 1975....6.5"

05.) 46.6F - 2011....0.6"

06.) 46.0F - 1963....T

07.) 45.7F - 1948....T

08.) 45.5F - 1994....T

09.) 45.3F - 2009....0

10.) 45.2F - 1999....T

11.) 44.9F - 1909....0.3"

11.) 44.9F - 1964....2.6"

13.) 44.5F - 1953....3.0"

14.) 44.3F - 2003....0.4"

15.) 44.3F - 1883....0.5"

16.) 44.2F - 1990....T

17.) 43.9F - 1946....0.3"

18.) 43.7F - 1998....0

19.) 43.6F - 1934....T

19.) 43.6F - 1960....1.0"

21.) 43.5F - 1881....0.2"

21.) 43.5F - 1913....3.6"

21.) 43.5F - 1927....3.8"

21.) 43.5F - 1987....0.7"

25.) 43.2F - 2005....4.3"

26.) 43.0F - 1941....0.5"

26.) 43.0F - 2004....0.1"

28.) 42.9F - 1958....4.5"

29.) 42.8F - 1899....T

29.) 42.8F - 1952....T

 

TOP 30 COLDEST NOVEMBERS at Detroit...2.9" or less snowfall highlighted in red

01.) 29.8F - 1880....7.7"

02.) 33.5F - 1976....1.4"

03.) 34.2F - 1996....4.1"

04.) 34.5F - 1875....3.7"

05.) 34.6F - 1951....8.3"

06.) 34.9F - 1894....6.9"

07.) 35.2F - 1967....1.4"

08.) 35.4F - 1936....2.0"

09.) 35.5F - 1911....7.0"

09.) 35.5F - 1995....1.3"

11.) 35.6F - 1892....6.6"

12.) 35.7F - 1910....2.3"

13.) 36.0F - 1933..10.5"

14.) 36.4F - 1901....T

14.) 36.4F - 1903....2.3"

16.) 36.5F - 1891....6.8"

17.) 36.6F - 1959....8.1"

18.) 36.7F - 1950....9.2"

19.) 36.9F - 1929....1.4"

20.) 37.1F - 1947....3.1"

20.) 37.1F - 1997....4.6"

22.) 37.2F - 1932..10.1"

23.) 37.3F - 1986....3.3"

24.) 37.4F - 1972....7.1"

24.) 37.4F - 1980....3.4"

26.) 37.5F - 1898....8.9"

26.) 37.5F - 1905....0.3"

26.) 37.5F - 2013....1.2"

29.) 37.7F - 1955....4.8"

30.) 37.8F - 1874....9.6"

 

While the results GENERALLY lean towards the colder Novembers having above normal snow & wamer Novembers having below normal, there are WAY too many exceptions to consider it anything more than a crapshoot.

 

 

 

Thanks, that's exactly what I was wondering. 

[cyclone77]

Absolutely fantastic day today.  Made it up to 65, which was several degrees higher than the point had.  MLI at 67 atm. 

 

Got the last of the mowing/mulching done and everything's put away for the year.  Yard looks great.  Now, bring on the snow!