CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 And the ensembles agree about that crack op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 How much for VA Beach? Lol...I see SOME similarities with the N American upper air pattern from Nov 5-7 53 and today's 12z EURO...FWIW that was a miller a originating in the Gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 And the ensembles agree about that crack op run.it a whopper topper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Tip appears to be drifting dangerously close to the falls in that barrel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 it a whopper topper I meant that they agree it's on crack. Like Ron Washington style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Someone please.. Was the op run rain or snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Someone please.. Was the op run rain or snow? Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 And the ensembles agree about that crack op run. Yeah that ship sailed the instant this extreme 12z depiction came out... The ensemble "mean" will be tamed over any given operational run more than 50% of the time... and when the oper. run is particularly anomalous, that's probably more like 100%. It's a numbers game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Tip appears to be drifting dangerously close to the falls in that barrel. I'm usually fairly adept at this sort of thing ? But I am less than certain what your metaphor is intended to imply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 If only lol were moving some offices in the fox6- hartford courant buliding tomorrow might have to ask about models runs since I wont have my phone on me we can hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I'm usually fairly adept at this sort of thing ? But I am less than certain what your metaphor is intended to imply I'm playing John. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Someone please.. Was the op run rain or snow? Rain, with the snow missing you by 25 miles to the northeast of Tolland. Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Looks pretty mild after the cool down on the 1st.Good soccer weather for the moms like Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Probably more than less impressive over the next 24 to 36 hours worth of runs ... then, inevitable, model blackout begins. As certain as "scorched Earth" posting eras ... the models will drop the event all but entirely. Then, 96 hours out some ...UKMET run of all, comes out with a bomb 300 naut mi e of Cape Cod . heh. Crazy uncle talk immediately ensues ... over-dins the small Gynx post that the JMA makes history from VA to ME. 84 hours out and the NAM goes nuts on the last frame. the GFS brings it half way back, ...but wait, no, upon closer scrutiny it brought the intensity half back put races the thing to England. The Euro holds serve as a lost cause. Tips flames everyone with Christine talk because tele's are still signaling a Heather Archembault - nice. 72 hours and Tip quits and says little hope as most guidance suddenly converge on a no show. Skip 60 hours; too annoying to care and no one wants to deal with bi-polar antics. 48 hours Kevin gets a tweet about the monster. What?! 24 hours out, FOX News reports that the polar vortex isn't dead - "sets sites on the east" Radio show curse? not this time... if you live at 2,000 feet west of the I-95. But gosh ... we like the seasonal trend.. ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Looks pretty mild after the cool down on the 1st.Good soccer weather for the moms like Kevin. GOA vortex FTL. Do you see any changes wrt the MJO moving into favourable phases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I meant that they agree it's on crack. Like Ron Washington style.yea well who would have guessed, although they thought this weeks cutoff was a crack run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 What does the JMA show, anyway ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 GOA vortex FTL. Do you see any changes wrt the MJO moving into favourable phases? Isn't that what doomed 11-12? Dont want too see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Probably more than less impressive over the next 24 to 36 hours worth of runs ... then, inevitable, model blackout begins. As certain as "scorched Earth" posting eras ... the models will drop the event all but entirely. Then, 96 hours out some ...UKMET run of all, comes out with a bomb 300 naut mi e of Cape Cod . heh. Crazy uncle talk immediately ensues ... over-dins the small Gynx post that the JMA makes history from VA to ME. 84 hours out and the NAM goes nuts on the last frame. the GFS brings it half way back, ...but wait, no, upon closer scrutiny it brought the intensity half back put races the thing to England. The Euro holds serve as a lost cause. Tips flames everyone with Christine talk because tele's are still signaling a Heather Archembault - nice. 72 hours and Tip quits and says little hope as most guidance suddenly converge on a no show. Skip 60 hours; too annoying to care and no one wants to deal with bi-polar antics. 48 hours Kevin gets a tweet about the monster. What?! 24 hours out, FOX News reports that the polar vortex isn't dead - "sets sites on the east" Radio show curse? not this time... if you live at 2,000 feet west of the I-95. But gosh ... we like the seasonal trend.. ha I don"t think I ever posted a JMA run in my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Euro ensemble mean was the least defined I have seen it over the past few runs. So if anything, we lost some support as we got closer this run...still, given the time frame, it doesn't mean much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 GOA vortex FTL. Do you see any changes wrt the MJO moving into favourable phases? Isn't that what doomed 11-12? Dont want too see that Speaking of crack, give me sum of dat stuff you are smokin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 GOA vortex FTL. Do you see any changes wrt the MJO moving into favourable phases? Perhaps maybe later in November. It's also more of a GOAK trough. I really don't see anything to concern yourself over. I feel like we do this every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I don"t think I ever posted a JMA run in my life I think Tip's whole post was tongue-in-cheek joking, it was pretty good tho. Tippy is antsy for some winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Looks pretty mild after the cool down on the 1st.Good soccer weather for the moms like Kevin. Yeah after that system goes by (whether it hits us or not), it looks like a bit of a torch...great soccer practice weather. No need for big coats or hats. Looks like we may try to cool things down at the very end of the run as we start to build some PNA ridging...a bit of retrogression of the GOA trough perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yeah after that system goes by (whether it hits us or not), it looks like a bit of a torch...great soccer practice weather. No need for big coats or hats. Looks like we may try to cool things down at the very end of the run as we start to build some PNA ridging...a bit of retrogression of the GOA trough perhaps. Every now and then you see a little kink in the contours at 500 over the SW while you get some ridging in western Canada. They'll likely be some split flow I think. Not too surprising I guess given ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 A little OT, but some of these places north of 50N are frigid already. UEEE was -22C . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 euro Ens went from +5 850's for the 1st to -5 in 4 days, seems a little volatility is not being handled well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 The ensembles have a GOAK trough with lower height anomalies over the srn US and a hair AN heights in Canada. Nino is telling us it's here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Tip appears to be drifting dangerously close to the falls in that barrel. LOL Probably more than less impressive over the next 24 to 36 hours worth of runs ... then, inevitable, model blackout begins. As certain as "scorched Earth" posting eras ... the models will drop the event all but entirely. Then, 96 hours out some ...UKMET run of all, comes out with a bomb 300 naut mi e of Cape Cod . heh. Crazy uncle talk immediately ensues ... over-dins the small Gynx post that the JMA makes history from VA to ME. 84 hours out and the NAM goes nuts on the last frame. the GFS brings it half way back, ...but wait, no, upon closer scrutiny it brought the intensity half back put races the thing to England. The Euro holds serve as a lost cause. Tips flames everyone with Christine talk because tele's are still signaling a Heather Archembault - nice. 72 hours and Tip quits and says little hope as most guidance suddenly converge on a no show. Skip 60 hours; too annoying to care and no one wants to deal with bi-polar antics. 48 hours Kevin gets a tweet about the monster. What?! 24 hours out, FOX News reports that the polar vortex isn't dead - "sets sites on the east" Radio show curse? not this time... if you live at 2,000 feet west of the I-95. But gosh ... we like the seasonal trend.. ha You might also get HubbDave posting typo-filled DT analyses. Yeah after that system goes by (whether it hits us or not), it looks like a bit of a torch...great soccer practice weather. No need for big coats or hats. Looks like we may try to cool things down at the very end of the run as we start to build some PNA ridging...a bit of retrogression of the GOA trough perhaps. But everyone should have a good shawl handy. It is November after all. 56.4/45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Model noise, Safe to say there may be a system on the east coast somewhere, But that's all that can be said right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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