Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 DT on Facebook: *** ALERT *** MAJOR EAST COAST STORM OCT 31-NOV 2 POSSIBLE... HVY MTN SNOWS ??....PROLONGED 2 to 3 DAY EVENT... *** NOT YET A CERTAIN FORECAST *** european Model is most aggressive with this but the event is now showing up on Canadian (CMC) and the GFS . Yes this does a threat to night of oct 31 with on the East coast from NYC to SC.. DETAILS.... several Maps here. The first 2 are the 500 mb (more or less Jet stream maps) that show SHOW this event COULD develop. The first maps a huge ridge over the West coast & Rockies which in turn allows for a strong Piece of energy (#1) over south central Canada to drops SE into system #2 over the Delta. These 2 systems MERGE ( called phasing) over the TN valley into a VERY powerful Upper level low. IMAGE #2 shows a HUGE intense Upper Low over GA. IF ..IF this was say jan feb or march this map would be screaming MASSIVE se US/ Tn valley/ VA NC snowstorm. (If my grand mother had balls she would be my grandfather...). The Low then lifts SLOOOWLY up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-25-2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 DT on Facebook: *** ALERT *** MAJOR EAST COAST STORM OCT 31-NOV 2 POSSIBLE... HVY MTN SNOWS ??....PROLONGED 2 to 3 DAY EVENT... *** NOT YET A CERTAIN FORECAST *** european Model is most aggressive with this but the event is now showing up on Canadian (CMC) and the GFS . Yes this does a threat to night of oct 31 with on the East coast from NYC to SC.. DETAILS.... several Maps here. The first 2 are the 500 mb (more or less Jet stream maps) that show SHOW this event COULD develop. The first maps a huge ridge over the West coast & Rockies which in turn allows for a strong Piece of energy (#1) over south central Canada to drops SE into system #2 over the Delta. These 2 systems MERGE ( called phasing) over the TN valley into a VERY powerful Upper level low. IMAGE #2 shows a HUGE intense Upper Low over GA. IF ..IF this was say jan feb or march this map would be screaming MASSIVE se US/ Tn valley/ VA NC snowstorm. (If my grand mother had balls she would be my grandfather...). The Low then lifts SLOOOWLY up the east coast. lol, Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Fwiw - as provide by NWS Boston's climate web-pages... As of October 24: BOS sets at +2.3 PVD sets at +2.0 ORH sets at +1.9 HFD sets at +3.5 I didn't bring over the 2nd decimal point because I eye-ball summed and divided but these are close. Using the model guidance for the next seven days to assess where these averages may end could be difficult to some degree (no pun intended) because ... I am not entirely convinced that a colder profiled coastal event won't transpire in that D5-8 range, and should something like that take place ... perhaps some weight tugs these down some. But not that much; too much weight for having (by then) some 29 days of the month in the arithmetic. Bottom line, warm month. What does this mean going forward? Probably not a whole hell of a lot. I am almost inclined to assert that it might mean more prior to the acceleration of GW terms hard vetted by real science and undeniable, but there's a skewing aspect now that is always in play. I have touched on this in the past how we live in an era where - relative to a given weather pattern construct/appeal/characteristic overall - it is always going to be easier to verify above, rather than below, climate. This is not to say that climate modulates the weather -- obviously that is a dim-witted Met 101 type of thinking that gets the fledgling Met student to change their major by the end of the first semester of their Freshman year. However, the sum/n-terms of weather guiding climate being the truth, something about the dailies, over extended periods of time, most certainly have biased results on the positive side when taking the climate of the planet, as a whole. Obviously, to the astute reader ... when taken in quadrature, this does not reflect everywhere, unilaterally. Of course not. Rather, it is preferably intuitive to say, regions of warmth must out number regions of cool; and you would be safe enough to win that smoldering debate (another weak pun). I do privately take this a step further, however, and suggest that even cool-profiled-looks to patterns et al, just don't carry the cool mustard they did even three (or so) decades ago ... perhaps because they can't. So, taking all this/that into consideration, my own opinion is that the weather patterns and/or their perturbed variations over the past month have not "appealed" as warmer than normal -- not really. Yet, and yet again ... relative to that, we have our four major climate sites across the area between +1 and +2.5 (or so) standard deviations for that same time span. I am interested in what the numbers are over the GL and MA regions. Anyway .. that labors that point to death. The gist of what I am getting at is, it's tougher to rely on that (October+November)/2 leads to x,y,z ... 5,10, or 15 times type linear correlating because with the background daily results forcing fluxed climate mode ... that crap has to all break down. Could mean anything. ********************************* Two days ago I commented that there was a bit of an Archembault signal in the teleconnectors (GFS derived...). Yesterday, that signal seemed to all but disappear. That kind of daily variance is more common to the transition season, and was also an aspect discussed. Now, ...as of the 00z computations at CDC, the signal has popped back up and actually is even a bit more discerned than the earlier vision: There have been leading teleconnector forecast eras in the past where a "corrective event" was suggested as plausible that may have been more demonstrative, but this (above) isn't all that bad. There's some 1.5 SD's worth of jolt alteration/recovery in these major-player teleconnector domains. The PNA going positive in that degree is the better correlation to an eastern N/A precipitation event, but as the science(s) note ... the NAO carries a bit of a correlation, however weaker, nonetheless. Having these in near tandem is a double suggestion, targeting the OV-MA-NE states for some kind of negative geopotential anomaly, ...if albeit transient in nature. Enters the operational dragons... There still is some mulit-guidance suggestion for a period of amplitude to sweep through said regions ...just about temporally centered upon when the above outlined teleconnectors would argue it should 12z 10/25 GFS used to exemplify only... There has been a considerable amount of run to run morphology wrt to the above, but I just took a peak at the 12z GFS, and considering the heretofore discussion ... I don't find it surprising to see this type of negative anomaly. It just fits. I am fairly to highly confident in the translation of negative counterbalancing mass-fields as suggested by the PNA --> +PNAP response. I am less confident in exact details, but some form of colder profiled storminess for someone from the OV-NW MA-NE regions should be monitored for a week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Jesus christ! ...I tell you what ... should this 180 hour type of depiction correct/ever manage to pass under our latitude with that same mechanical power, this would become the most important event for so early in a season in our erstwhile life-times ... perhaps ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Tomorrow afternoon is looking windexy with squalls of rain and wind Total Totals Index: 49.02 C Risk: Scattered heavy thunderstorms Agree. Polar opposite of today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Jesus christ! ...I tell you what ... should this 180 hour type of depiction correct/ever manage to pass under our latitude with that same mechanical power, this would become the most important event for so early in a season in our erstwhile life-times ... perhaps ever. a signal 3.jpg October 2011 seems like it'll take the cake in our lifetimes. But yeah I guess if we play the "what if game" we could come up with something to beat that 1 in multi-hundred year event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 October 2011 seems like it'll take the cake in our lifetimes. But yeah I guess if we play the "what if game" we could come up with something to beat that 1 in multi-hundred year event. Dude ... that beast on this 12z run (not saying it's going to happen, mind you) blows that October event away in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Jerry and PF with an inch each tied GON 1.2" out of that bad boy I think, lol. That was just an awesome storm to watch evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Dude ... that beast on this 12z run (not saying it's going to happen, mind you) blows that October event away in the mid levels. Cue the worries that the winter that follows an October snowstorm will resemble 11/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Dude ... that beast on this 12z run (not saying it's going to happen, mind you) blows that October event away in the mid levels. Yeah I forgot what the mid-lvls looked like in Oct 2011...that GFS prog definitely doesn't translate it to the surface with a relatively weak low of 996-1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 GEFS with a decent signal at ths time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I am interested in what the numbers are over the GL and MA regions. Small sample size, but I'll give you the individual monthly temperature departures going back to last October for Indianapolis (IND). Oct 2013: -0.4˚ Nov 2013: -4.4˚ Dec 2013: -1.7˚ Jan 2014: -8.0˚ Feb 2014: -9.8˚ Mar 2014: -6.5˚ Apr 2014: 0.0˚ May 2014: +0.4˚ Jun 2014: +0.7˚ Jul 2014: -5.3˚ coolest July on record for Indy, records since 1871 Aug 2014: -0.4˚ Sep 2014: -1.5˚ Oct 2014: -1.7˚ (thru 10/24) May and June were scorchers. As well, January-September 2014 ranks as tied the 6th coolest on record for the state of Indiana (records since 1895). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Jesus christ! ...I tell you what ... should this 180 hour type of depiction correct/ever manage to pass under our latitude with that same mechanical power, this would become the most important event for so early in a season in our erstwhile life-times ... perhaps ever. a signal 3.jpg I am waiting desperately to see "a signal 4.jpg" attachment that crashes this weather group tonight for New England's impatiens obliterator storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Powder we can lock it in as I have a CD Release on Nov. 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Let's lock up this bad boy in the midday Wednesday 10/29 models.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I may start a thread on this ... but still a week or more out, it would have to be a probability landscape sort of outlook, more than a detailed one, so... perhaps we're good. I just scanned over the GEFs members; seems there are two general themes, members about split down the middle with that period of time: 1) two stream phase between remnant TF and polar stream; 2) partial or no steam phase, stranding TF wave in the SE -- not too dissimilar to what just transpired in the cut-off and resulting Nor'Easter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Euro digging for oil again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I don't know exactly what is going to come on the next D7 panel, but this 12z oper. Euro D6 is a wet dream ... well, scratch that: white dream for at least some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 More like a pipe dream. We can probably toss this. You'll see what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 What a crack run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 What a crack run. Thematically it is sound, though. And by that ... as I have heavily discussed the larger scaled, hemispheric indices are robustly in support of a negative anomaly moving spatial-temporally in lock step with these operational guidance'. How exactly on details levels, this all plays out... sure. No comment. But the general appeal is not absurd to me at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 It's pretty ridiculous though. I don't disagree with the notion of a deep trough or s/w, but this run is..well interesting to see that least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 I may start a thread on this ... but still a week or more out, it would have to be a probability landscape sort of outlook, more than a detailed one, so... perhaps we're good. I just scanned over the GEFs members; seems there are two general themes, members about split down the middle with that period of time: 1) two stream phase between remnant TF and polar stream; 2) partial or no steam phase, stranding TF wave in the SE -- not too dissimilar to what just transpired in the cut-off and resulting Nor'Easter. This is exactly what I was observing, too... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1157 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014 VALID 12Z TUE OCT 28 2014 - 12Z SAT NOV 01 2014 ...REMNANTS OF 'ANA' TO IMPACT BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...OVERVIEW... AN 'ATMOSPHERIC RIVER' LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. WITH 'ANA' IN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION PHASE OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC PRIOR TO THE START OF THE MEDIUM RANGE---SEE THE CPHC FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS---THE EXPECTED JET-LEVEL WINDS WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE AMPLITUDE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE LOWER 48 THROUGH NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES POINT TO A REAMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN BY NEXT SAT/D7 WITH TROUGHING NEAR BOTH COASTS AND RIDGING ALONG 100W." Ana's incorporation into the intermediate stream/jet actually sets the table for said amplitude [potential]. Wave structure/frequency may in fact support the phasing scenario, with the N-stream/Polar stream being "induced" to come south and subsume the Ana remnant S/W in the TV/Lower OV areas. Fascinating. I would also like to note; it is fairly well documented by multiple Mets in various venues that "louder" events tend to signal a bit earlier than typical lead guidance detection. It's mostly likely because their presence in the medium gobble up a significant amount of physical band-width ... so to speak. Is this one of those? Time will tell... but we just passed through a solid 12 month of relative quiescence so in terms of "storm/event budget", it may be time to make a deposit as all these top 10 days we've had all summer have partied on for quite a while. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 It's pretty ridiculous though. I don't disagree with the notion of a deep trough or s/w, but this run is..well interesting to see that least. -10C at H85 in the southern Apps of western NC and eastern TN not happening? lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 -10C at H85 in the southern Apps of western NC and eastern TN not happening? lol. The whole evolution just looks a bit too amplified IMO. It digs so deep that it gives practically 32F temps near the Gulf coast and then closes off and wraps in a huge TROWAL and gives NC and VA snow...and then lifts N over SNE. Call me a little skeptical of that verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 The whole evolution just looks a bit too amplified IMO. It digs so deep that it gives practically 32F temps near the Gulf coast and then closes off and wraps in a huge TROWAL and gives NC and VA snow...and then lifts N over SNE. Call me a little skeptical of that verbatim. Yeah that's got Tippy's ECM over-amped bias written all over it. Seems to warm quickly as it cuts off...but look at those H85 wind speeds in the mid-Atlantic...lol 65-75kts, would be quite the coastal, as absurd as the evolution is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yeah Scott the D8 details are hilarious... Has -3C 850s amid some kind of tropospheric fold for the Carolinas, while it is a balmy +10 over Logan. I'd almost just like to see that ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 Yeah Scott the D8 details are hilarious... Has -3C 850s amid some kind of tropospheric fold for the Carolinas, while it is a balmy +10 over Logan. I'd almost just like to see that ... Yeah I agree with you about something near the East Coast....all I'm saying is that it seems a little over-amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 25, 2014 Share Posted October 25, 2014 At the least seems like there's high confidence of a trough digging in the East a week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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