CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Any signs that that ugly thing goes away after mid-november? Tough to say. The strat looks pretty cold there as well so there is some evidence it could hang around a bit. I really wouldn't read into it much right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormSurge Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Thanks! Downtown. I've been lurking around these forums for awhile Welcome Dan. We can suffer together down here. In reality, the winters have been much kinder to us lately than the summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 You can wear that t-shirt the first half of November.sales booming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 The noreaster is over... will it ever rain in New England again? Fox News investigates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Up down up down...rinse repeat. This rendition features, nothing... If you were hoping on the active pattern (in terms of deeper storminess however well or not it related to winter characteristics) the last 24 hours of modeling tempo and indeed, to a goodly extent their respective tele suggestions ... all point to minoring out transitory air mass changes in a flattish type of flow that may actually feature more above normal temperatures than the other way around (I think Scoot or someone mentioned?). Tho ... an individual pop of Canadian tugged air on the heels of a fast moving open wave might get you cold for a 12 to 18 hour period; by and large, yesterday's "weak" Archembault signal all but entirely disappeared overnight in the teleconnectors (interesting). This may all be red-herring, as is so typical of autumn transition season. If there is ever a time of year to witness whole-scale discontinuity in the mass-fields on a quatra-Hemispheric scale (or even larger...) than fall is the time to do it. Very difficult time of the year to forecast middle and extended ranges ... more so than the usual sarcasm and fang-dangling barbs, too. However, I am not so certain a more curved planetary wave structure won't return given time; the longer term propensity to do so needs a longer absentia for me to buy into the notion that it's over; also, the MJO is predicted to strengthen in Phase 1.. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 The day 7 system has BIG potential written all over it. The 00z ECMWF trended towards a storm in a big way and the 06z GEFS ensembles were a lot more enthusiastic than 00z. Now the 12z GFS OP was very close to pulling the trigger but was just a tad too late to develop things. As is, it would bring a round of light snow or flurries to inland locations very late Halloween night into early on November 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Ha, GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Ha, GFS. We are not doing this. I will not have this in my household. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Ha, GFS. The Euro has it, the GFS is close. We have 7 days to work it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Lots of congrats on that GFS run to hand out, Kevs first white birthday ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 First clown range snow for SNE on GFS...even if its just a coating. Got that one out of the way now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 516dm closed thickness contour on Nov 2 ...heh, just don't run us out to a 1989er -- hated the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I'm going to keep track of my d7-10 snow total this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 You guys make it sound like this GFS run is all by itself. The 00z ECMWF gave northeast NY 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I guess the period of amplitude/potential has been more highlighted by the Euro and GFS operational versions ...with some at times less support by their respect means. But usually ... when the two big kahunas agree on an aspect, their means will in time crumble and cede to them. We'll have to see if this is one of those times. Period of amp = higher confidence Exactly what = no way to tell. There is a modest dip in the NAO at both the cdc and cpc, but this can be as much just a transient result of the trough digging in ... more so than a lead enforcing mass field. The domain doesn't 'look' very negative leading in, is all.. Again, yesterday there was a reasonably clear Archembault type system flagged during the concerned period of time, but the overnight ensembles? EEwe, not where to be seen. Major flip floppage there suggest preceding with a good dose of incredulity re any solution is prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 I'm going to keep track of my d7-10 snow total this year. You should actually .. .Might be a neat experiment in mid April next spring, to compare the D7-10 totals with verifications... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Shovels followed by shorts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 You guys make it sound like this GFS run is all by itself. The 00z ECMWF gave northeast NY 2-4". Not that anyone asked but it kind of makes sense that the Euro was warm, west and so deep... The model tends to have a bit of a depth bias with eastern N/A troughs beyond D5... The determinism is inherently low ...perhaps helped some by blend of the GFS typical slight progressive bias against the Euro's slowness -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Shovels followed by shorts? Nah, that slowly east moving Rex structure would mean a big polar high wedging down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 You guys make it sound like this GFS run is all by itself. The 00z ECMWF gave northeast NY 2-4". Euro is way deeper. This stuff is like 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Euro is way deeper. This stuff is like 8 days out. Like I said give this time. I'm not guranteeing anything will heppen. Just think the upcoming pattern holds potential for more than advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 12z GEFS is flat and going OTS with Oct 30th-31 low. But the trough is deeper/sharper. Decent +PNA spike and a weak ridge building into Greenland/Davis Strait at 144hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Shovels followed by shorts? you can't wait to get into those Daisy Dukes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Like I said give this time. I'm not guranteeing anything will heppen. Just think the upcoming pattern holds potential for more than advertised. Keep me posted when you do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Lol but a -38c 5h in Nov, now that is a spark. Pretty sure we have this convo every Oct and Nov only once was the incredulity at the solutions ever verified, Rocktober 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 GGEM has a deep trough over the east coast day 7 with a developing coastal offshore. You can't really trust the eveolution of the storm because it develops a fantasy hurricane which passes just East of Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 GGEM has a deep trough over the east coast day 7 with a developing coastal offshore. You can't really trust the eveolution of the storm because it develops a fantasy hurricane which passes just East of Bermuda.Is that the reason you can't trust the d7 GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 ah, is there something against Isentropiclift ? anyway, before much happens there are some other notables; namely, what a gem tomorrow will be for the murk beleaguered SNE folk. Lots of blue, and quite mild relative to recent times. Mid 60s with tepid/warm sun amid clear, clean calm air is going to be down right utopia by comparison to say ...yesterday at dawn. Although ... could pancake cu for awhile, but it has that appeal of busting back out into sun at 3 after the atmosphere's turned over and mixed out some RH. Also, there could be a fairly goodly warm up around D4/5 prior to any trough amplitude/concerns thereafter. Obviously with the utter pre-occupation for winter that's ever rising it's fervor, few probably haven't noticed .. but could knock 70F in there. Just saw the Euro through 120 hours ; with that pig vortex sinking in latitude SSE of the Aleutian Island archipelago that west pop east dive sea-saw should be in effect thereafter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 Is that the reason you can't trust the d7 GGEM? Not at all, I wouldn't trust the day 1 GGEM, especially lately. We all know the GGEM is just about as good as the 84 hour NAM, if not worse. Sometimes the GGEM can be matched against the Euro when trying to determine if a less progressive solution is more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted October 24, 2014 Share Posted October 24, 2014 ah, is there something against Isentropiclift ? anyway, before much happens there are some other notables; namely, what a gem tomorrow will be for the murk beleaguered SNE folk. Lots of blue, and quite mild relative to recent times. Mid 60s with tepid/warm sun amid clear, clean calm air is going to be down right utopia by comparison to say ...yesterday at dawn. Although ... could pancake cu for awhile, but it has that appeal of busting back out into sun at 3 after the atmosphere's turned over and mixed out some RH. Also, there could be a fairly goodly warm up around D4/5 prior to any trough amplitude/concerns thereafter. Obviously with the utter pre-occupation for winter that's ever rising it's fervor, few probably haven't noticed .. but could knock 70F in there. Just saw the Euro through 120 hours ; with that pig vortex sinking in latitude SSE of the Aleutian Island archipelago that west pop east dive sea-saw should be in effect thereafter... The 12z Euro is digging the trough all the way to the coast by Halloween with a nice ridge axis through Montana. Swing and a miss OTS this run. Not that far off from the GGEM FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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