Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 heh...2000j sbcape tickling Narragansett Bay.oh NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 oh Man 12-24 tors? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 12-24 tors?Congrats PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Is the threat of tornadoes only for south of MA/CT border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Move that west into the valley lol Congrats PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Make one NAM is really impressive too. Wow. Someone should make a thread for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Congrats me and Bob...sleeping in the basement tomorrow night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Congrats me and Bob...sleeping in the basement tomorrow night?Heavy damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 4km NAM simulated radar blows up a semi-discrete cell right over Litchfield County at 5 a.m. Wednesday. #weeniemode Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 4km NAM simulated radar blows up a semi-discrete cell right over Litchfield County at 5 a.m. Wednesday. #weeniemodeyea it's very meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 We are really going to have to get good enough cape to yield mature enough updrafts. The shear is through the roof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 We are really going to have to get good enough cape to yield mature enough updrafts. The shear is through the rooftiming is awful, let's see how the Nam does with this, it has been blowing up convection 2 days out a lot only to back way down, hi res might be first shot across the bow of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 timing is awful, let's see how the Nam does with this, it has been blowing up convection 2 days out a lot only to back way down, hi res might be first shot across the bow of that I don't think timing matters in these setups. The instability is driven by the high dews and in this case we may even have steep lates moving overhead. What hurts in these setups is that shear is so strong updrafts get sheared apart and aren't able to develop high enough to utilize the shear. a temp/dew of 70/67 and 700-500 lapse rates of like 6.5 would yield several hundred J of 0-3km cape...at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Doesn't timing matter with cape? How much CIN is there? Unless there is super strong mechanical lifting the lack of surface heating will inhibit widespread severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Total totals are only near 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Doesn't timing matter with cape? How much CIN is there? Unless there is super strong mechanical lifting the lack of surface heating will inhibit widespread severe Having this happen during the day with a chance for hearing certainly would be a positive...no doubt. However, you don't always need heating to increase cape. In this case temps/dews will be close to 70F so we'll have a warm and veryoist llvl airmass...that alone will yield some instability. Also, if we see steeper lapse rates work in that too would increase cape. Also, in these setups we are more interested in cape values in the 0-2 or 0-3km level...this is where all the shear/turning is located so you want good cape here...this is where your warm/moist llvl airmass comes into play. With these systems dynamics really make up for quite a bit and therefore sunlight or heating isn't as important as in the summer b/c you have much stronger forcing and dynamics to compensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Also...I don't think we see widespread severe wx but the potential for a few very nasty storms is what's on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Better parameters seem to be coming together over SNE. The 21z SREF now has 30% bullseye for significant tornado ingredients over CT early Wed AM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Having this happen during the day with a chance for hearing certainly would be a positive...no doubt. However, you don't always need heating to increase cape. In this case temps/dews will be close to 70F so we'll have a warm and veryoist llvl airmass...that alone will yield some instability. Also, if we see steeper lapse rates work in that too would increase cape. Also, in these setups we are more interested in cape values in the 0-2 or 0-3km level...this is where all the shear/turning is located so you want good cape here...this is where your warm/moist llvl airmass comes into play. With these systems dynamics really make up for quite a bit and therefore sunlight or heating isn't as important as in the summer b/c you have much stronger forcing and dynamics to compensate. Right. We are essentially replacing thermodynamic lifting (more summer-like) with dynamic/synoptic lifting, given that storm systems are much stronger and more baroclinic this time of year. That being said, with so much dynamics, there is always the worry for convective debris/crapvection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Categorical Day1 1200Z Outlook Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area SLIGHT 10,970 17,330,516 New York, NY...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...Bridgeport, CT...New Haven, CT... Forecast Discussion SPC AC 070602 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 AM CDT TUE OCT 07 2014 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND AND THE NYC METRO AREA TUESDAY NIGHT... ...DELMARVA/NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF DELMARVA...ERN PA...NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...INCLUDING THE NYC METRO MAINLY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD /06-12Z/. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TODAY BECOMES NEGATIVELY-TILTED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO SRN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT WITH 60-90 METER HEIGHT FALLS. INCREASING DEEP LAYER FORCING ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE IN THE PERIOD COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION SUGGESTS TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR FROM DELMARVA...NRN MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO SRN NEW ENGLAND. 12Z ECMWF INDICATED MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY 06Z. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG A STRENGTHENING /UP TO 50 KT/ SSWLY LLJ WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. 00Z 4 KM WRF NMM/NSSL RUNS EACH SUGGEST A QLCS WILL STRENGTHEN/SHARPEN OVER DELMARVA/NJ BETWEEN 06-08Z AND TRACK ACROSS LONG ISLAND TO CT/RI AND PARTS OF MA BETWEEN 08-12Z. ..PETERS/MOSIER.. 10/07/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Some people will be caught unawares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonkis Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 What a crazy morning run. It started off fall-ish and chilly with temps around 52. Then these pockets of warmer, steamy air started to pool in - especially on south-facing hills - with the chillier air nestled in the low spots. So the rest of the run passed through these alternating air masses. It was like someone was playing with an air conditioner. Ended the run with temps around 62. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 GFS with a nice weenie tropical system along the East Coast next week, lol. Recurves it out to sea though eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Locking in 12z GFS 11-15 day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Locking in 12z GFS 11-15 day. Are we still looking at a screaming southeaster for this saturday that some were worried about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 GFS with a nice weenie tropical system along the East Coast next week, lol. Recurves it out to sea though eventually. It's been so long since we've had anything in the North Atlantic, I can't remember what letter comes next - F? Didn't we just miss setting a record for timespan between major 'canes, when Edouard(sp?) reached Cat 3 for a few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Are we still looking at a screaming southeaster for this saturday that some were worried about? AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Blowing the mice out of the snow blower in shorts and flip flops FTW. Winds and clouds have taken over now was a great morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Are we still looking at a screaming southeaster for this saturday that some were worried about? AWT. Pretty much ..Sucks..We knew there was a reason to be worried days ago Ryan Hanrahan We're going to introduce the chance of rain to the forecast for Saturday morning. Not great news for the marathon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 7, 2014 Share Posted October 7, 2014 Pretty much ..Sucks..We knew there was a reason to be worried days ago Ryan Hanrahan We're going to introduce the chance of rain to the forecast for Saturday morning. Not great news for the marathon. light rain cold NE breeze. Good running weather? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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